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Cringley: Japan may have just permanently lost 20% of its electricity supply

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Re: Cringley: Japan may have just permanently lost 20% of its electricity supply

#31

Post by djcapelis »

TomOfTTB wrote: post #30
djcapelis wrote: post #27

Uhm... the other units at Chernobyl re-entered service for a solid decade after that incident. (Only one of them lasted a decade. Unit 2 caught on fire in '91. Unit 1 was shut down in '96 and Unit 3 lasted until Dec '99.) Cringley's prediction will be wrong. There are a lot of units at that station, two of which are ABWR cores. I would speculate that the majority of these units will return to service.

I think you're right but I give him credit for drawing attention to a big issue that everyone else is ignoring which is Japan's diminished production capacity (rather than focusing on the doomsday meltdown scenarios most of the media are fixated on). Even if they return to service eventually there's going to be downtime. That's going to force Japan to use more fossil fuels which will drive up the price (even more). A…

This is absolutely true. It will take time to online the other units at the other plants that automatically shut down too. These things don't come up and down on a whim.

Re: Cringley: Japan may have just permanently lost 20% of its electricity supply

#32

Post by nathanhammond »

One of the interesting things about disaster recovery planning for nuclear power plants is that you count on (X) number of things to go wrong and figure out how the plant recovers gracefully. In Japan they've effectively had three things go wrong: earthquake, tsunami, and general infrastructure damage. Most disaster scenarios only cover a single event and TEPCO has a lot to deal with.

In a disaster scenario the first reactions are generally passive (dropping of control rods, changing where water flows) and then "all" that remains is to cool the decay heat. Aye, here's the rub: the cooling system is not a passive system. It requires power to drive the water pumps for the cooling system that siphons the heat away from the reactor vessel. After initiating reactor shutdown the most critical time period is the first little while as that is when there is the most heat. Too much heat and it'll damage the fuel, vessel, and/or the cooling system and can effectively damage the reactor enough so to prevent it from ever recovering (thus, meltdown).

The questions left to ask are to what degree the cooling systems (primary and backup) are working, and whether they've been powered consistently. With that bit of information alone we'd be able to make a pretty accurate estimate as to the state of the reactors in question. What is scary is that it would be really simple to say that all of those systems are working as expected and that there is nothing to worry about. Since that hasn't been said I'm of the opinion that there is definitely something to worry about.

Re: Cringley: Japan may have just permanently lost 20% of its electricity supply

#33

Post by nabilt »

However the events unfold I wonder if this will cause more nations to investigate other reactor technologies like Thorium. The abundance of Thorium and its inherent safety mechanisms (as a liquid at least) make the technology very exciting.

Check out the Google Tech Talk http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZR0UKxNPh8

Re: Cringley: Japan may have just permanently lost 20% of its electricity supply

#34

Post by sliverstorm »

ubernostrum wrote: post #20
sliverstorm wrote: post #9

Can they not simply ship in extra batteries, or are they batteries too large to be moved?

Well. The datacenter across the street from my office has backup batteries which weigh in at half a ton apiece. Arranged in groups of eight . And I'm betting they're positively puny compared to what you'd want for a nuclear plant's cooling system, so simply "shipping in" some extras may not be all that feasible...

I'm sure they are large; I was thinking mostly that as 20% of Japan's energy and a nuclear reactor are on the line, they'd be able to move many tons of batteries. Also remember, modern cars weight 1.5-2 tons, and are carried in sets of 8-10 cross-country by truck.

Re: Cringley: Japan may have just permanently lost 20% of its electricity supply

#35

Post by patrickgzill »

neutronicus wrote: post #15

Like they wouldn't have boron near a nuclear reactor. I'm a PWR man myself, but I am 99% sure that GE BWR designs have a couple of big tanks of borated water specifically for a LOCA. I highly doubt they're having reactivity problems, it's probably just managing the decay heat, and now the radiation leaks, that's the problem. "Just" is a relative word, here, of course. Boiling water reactors are simpler, cheaper, but…

I thought the new designs were classified as ALWRs - advanced light water reactors (light water meaning they use regular water).

Re: Cringley: Japan may have just permanently lost 20% of its electricity supply

#37

Post by nettdata »

djcapelis wrote: post #27

Uhm... the other units at Chernobyl re-entered service for a solid decade after that incident. (Only one of them lasted a decade. Unit 2 caught on fire in '91. Unit 1 was shut down in '96 and Unit 3 lasted until Dec '99.) Cringley's prediction will be wrong. There are a lot of units at that station, two of which are ABWR cores. I would speculate that the majority of these units will return to service.

The BBC is reporting a pretty major explosion. The link has video of it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12720219

While not apparently nuclear, it does seem pretty major. Could be interesting to see what the damage from it will turn out to be.

Re: Cringley: Japan may have just permanently lost 20% of its electricity supply

#38

Post by MichaelApproved »

TomOfTTB wrote: post #30
djcapelis wrote: post #27

Uhm... the other units at Chernobyl re-entered service for a solid decade after that incident. (Only one of them lasted a decade. Unit 2 caught on fire in '91. Unit 1 was shut down in '96 and Unit 3 lasted until Dec '99.) Cringley's prediction will be wrong. There are a lot of units at that station, two of which are ABWR cores. I would speculate that the majority of these units will return to service.

I think you're right but I give him credit for drawing attention to a big issue that everyone else is ignoring which is Japan's diminished production capacity (rather than focusing on the doomsday meltdown scenarios most of the media are fixated on). Even if they return to service eventually there's going to be downtime. That's going to force Japan to use more fossil fuels which will drive up the price (even more). A…

Oil isn't used to make electricity. The major options are nat gas and coal.

This disaster will likely drive DOWN oil prices since Japan will likely need less of it in the short term.

Re: Cringley: Japan may have just permanently lost 20% of its electricity supply

#40

Post by stevefarnworth »

MichaelApproved wrote: post #38
TomOfTTB wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're right but I give him credit for drawing attention to a big issue that everyone else is ignoring which is Japan's diminished production capacity (rather than focusing on the doomsday meltdown scenarios most of the media are fixated on). Even if they return to service eventually there's going to be downtime. That's going to force Japan to use more fossil fuels which will drive up the price (even more). A…

Oil isn't used to make electricity. The major options are nat gas and coal. This disaster will likely drive DOWN oil prices since Japan will likely need less of it in the short term.

I'm sorry? Oil isn't used to make electricity

Oil is used in some types of power station, and the markets are already reacting to not only the increased demand, but due to the infrastructure damage in the north of the country, the fact it'll be harder than ever to get it delivered.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110312-700945.html

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