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Closing The Collapse Gap: The USSR was better prepared than the US (2006)

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Re: Closing The Collapse Gap: The USSR was better prepared than the US (2006)

#31

Post by zozbot234 »

hash872 wrote: post #23

I dunno, seems a little overly dramatic. Previous world powers didn't collapse, they just faded- Britain, Spain, Portugal, etc. This seems much more likely, especially as budget issues prevent the US from deploying the same overwhelming military power all over the globe. America already spends more of its federal budget on entitlements than the military, contrary to what progressives will tell you- when push comes to…

Our countries may not be authoritarian but they're certainly rigid in the sense of having a huge amount of accumulated "technical debt" in their social organization, that by definition is simply not amenable to gradual change. A collapse of some sort is then the only feasible form of restructuring, and is a natural consequence of such circumstances especially given outside stressors. So I would definitely not put it beyond the realm of possibility.

Re: Closing The Collapse Gap: The USSR was better prepared than the US (2006)

#32

Post by humaniania »

nopriorarrests wrote: post #16
Hokusai wrote: post #4

Without agreeing with many points, the main thesis is true but just for one point: XXI century economies are less resilient to isolation than in previous centuries. We live in a more complex society and countries need each other more than before. Communication is cheap, transport is cheap so it makes sense to rely on other for your own need. So, this lack of preparedness is true for USA, but also for many countries i…

Russia totally recovered by any metric you can pick, from household income to average life expectancy. Heck, moscow in 80's looked like dumpster fire. Now it looks like a proper european capital city. EDIT: to prove my point, russian life expectancy from fed -- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qTgj

Corruption? That one seems pretttty important. https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2019/05/31/russias-o...

Re: Closing The Collapse Gap: The USSR was better prepared than the US (2006)

#33

Post by pdonis »

pmiller2 wrote: post #14
TomMckenny wrote: post #9

Another perhaps core issue is whether the party in power gets there by majority will or is there due to legalisms, archaic power distribution and voter suppression. The party that people didn't vote for is not likely to run anything in their interest.

I know you’re referring to Bush v. Gore and the 2016 electoral / popular vote inversion, both of which benefited Republicans. We’re there any scenarios in recent history of the sort that benefited Democrats? I can’t think of any. That said, the solution to both of these is to abandon the Electoral College. This can be done either by Constitutional amendment, or by the agreement of a certain number of states [0]. What…

> the solution to both of these is to abandon the Electoral College

This would certainly benefit the Democrats, but I don't see it as a "solution". It would give states without large urban areas even less political leverage than they have now. Presidential campaigns would not even bother visiting most states, since locking up enough votes in large urban areas (all of which are solidly Democratic) would be sufficient to win the election all by itself.

The purpose of the Electoral College was to prevent a slim 51% majority of the country from running roughshod over the rest. It is serving that purpose.

Re: Closing The Collapse Gap: The USSR was better prepared than the US (2006)

#34

Post by Robotbeat »

nopriorarrests wrote: post #16
Hokusai wrote: post #4

Without agreeing with many points, the main thesis is true but just for one point: XXI century economies are less resilient to isolation than in previous centuries. We live in a more complex society and countries need each other more than before. Communication is cheap, transport is cheap so it makes sense to rely on other for your own need. So, this lack of preparedness is true for USA, but also for many countries i…

Russia totally recovered by any metric you can pick, from household income to average life expectancy. Heck, moscow in 80's looked like dumpster fire. Now it looks like a proper european capital city. EDIT: to prove my point, russian life expectancy from fed -- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qTgj

In space industry prowess, it continues a slow decline (although they had a more robust system to begin with, so it has been managed fairly well).

Re: Closing The Collapse Gap: The USSR was better prepared than the US (2006)

#35

Post by Robotbeat »

vasilipupkin wrote: post #3

yeah, except it's nonsense, Soviet Union was completely unprepared for collapse. It couldn't even survive Chernobyl.

Chernobyl wasn't the cause of Soviet Union collapse. Arguably, the over-reach in Afghanistan was more important.

Re: Closing The Collapse Gap: The USSR was better prepared than the US (2006)

#36

Post by epicureanideal »

pmiller2 wrote: post #14
TomMckenny wrote: post #9

Another perhaps core issue is whether the party in power gets there by majority will or is there due to legalisms, archaic power distribution and voter suppression. The party that people didn't vote for is not likely to run anything in their interest.

I know you’re referring to Bush v. Gore and the 2016 electoral / popular vote inversion, both of which benefited Republicans. We’re there any scenarios in recent history of the sort that benefited Democrats? I can’t think of any. That said, the solution to both of these is to abandon the Electoral College. This can be done either by Constitutional amendment, or by the agreement of a certain number of states [0]. What…

Except that the electoral college was designed for a purpose, and that purpose might still be valid in the view of some people. A lot of Republicans for example, for similar reasons to why it was created in the first place.

Also, do you have any data points for presidential governments lasting less long than parliamentary governments?

Re: Closing The Collapse Gap: The USSR was better prepared than the US (2006)

#37

Post by rumanator »

hash872 wrote: post #23

I dunno, seems a little overly dramatic. Previous world powers didn't collapse, they just faded- Britain, Spain, Portugal, etc. This seems much more likely, especially as budget issues prevent the US from deploying the same overwhelming military power all over the globe. America already spends more of its federal budget on entitlements than the military, contrary to what progressives will tell you- when push comes to…

> America already spends more of its federal budget on entitlements than the military, contrary to what progressives will tell you

Do you have a source that supports your statement?

Re: Closing The Collapse Gap: The USSR was better prepared than the US (2006)

#38

Post by vasilipupkin »

Robotbeat wrote: post #35
vasilipupkin wrote: post #3

yeah, except it's nonsense, Soviet Union was completely unprepared for collapse. It couldn't even survive Chernobyl.

Chernobyl wasn't the cause of Soviet Union collapse. Arguably, the over-reach in Afghanistan was more important.

Chernobyl cost enormous amounts of money and Soviet Union collapsed shortly after, in part because it simply ran out of money dealing with Chernobyl

Re: Closing The Collapse Gap: The USSR was better prepared than the US (2006)

#39

Post by munificent »

hash872 wrote: post #23

I dunno, seems a little overly dramatic. Previous world powers didn't collapse, they just faded- Britain, Spain, Portugal, etc. This seems much more likely, especially as budget issues prevent the US from deploying the same overwhelming military power all over the globe. America already spends more of its federal budget on entitlements than the military, contrary to what progressives will tell you- when push comes to…

> Even in an emergency, we'd just see power shift to local state leaders.

That's exactly what we're seeing right now with COVID-19. Since Trump and his troop of baboons have done nothing but throw their own poop around, state governors have stepped up to provide executive leadership. The US has never looked more like a union of independent states to me than it has in the past couple of months.

Re: Closing The Collapse Gap: The USSR was better prepared than the US (2006)

#40

Post by MattGaiser »

rumanator wrote: post #37
hash872 wrote: post #23

I dunno, seems a little overly dramatic. Previous world powers didn't collapse, they just faded- Britain, Spain, Portugal, etc. This seems much more likely, especially as budget issues prevent the US from deploying the same overwhelming military power all over the globe. America already spends more of its federal budget on entitlements than the military, contrary to what progressives will tell you- when push comes to…

> America already spends more of its federal budget on entitlements than the military, contrary to what progressives will tell you Do you have a source that supports your statement?

Here you go.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expenditures_in_the_United_Sta...

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