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Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

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Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#31

Post by AnimalMuppet »

pmiller2 wrote: post #4

This quote from Munger is what I find most interesting: > I do think, sooner or later, we’ll have an economy back, which will be a moderate economy. It’s quite possible that never again—not again in a long time—will we have a level of employment again like we just lost. We may never get that back for all practical purposes. I don’t know. There are roughly 2 ways this could go if what he says actually happens. One is…

> we take this opportunity to acknowledge that Keynes was right, and we don't have to work as much as we do.

That isn't what Kenyes said. He said that in a recession/depression the government should spend more than it takes in, and the rest of the time it should spend less. So, if that equates to working less during a recession, we're going to have to work more during the good times.

But as for working less in general: If we want all this stuff, we have to produce all this stuff. Printing money, or even government spending, doesn't make stuff magically appear. We still have to make it.

Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#32

Post by leetcrew »

kick wrote: post #20
ctdonath wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA is effectively 50 countries with different demographics, geography, culture, and needs. Trying to impose any “one size fits all” solution won’t work because it’s not appropriate for a significant number of them.

The USA is a single country with what's effectively two demographics, and one-and-a-half breeds of politician. "50 countries with different demographics geography culture and needs!" is a complete fabrication. Wyoming doesn't even have a million people in it; implying Wyoming is a country is like implying a go-kart is a jet.

wyoming has more than ten times the population of lichtenstein and more than one thousand times the land area.

Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#33

Post by ceilingcorner »

kick wrote: post #20
ctdonath wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA is effectively 50 countries with different demographics, geography, culture, and needs. Trying to impose any “one size fits all” solution won’t work because it’s not appropriate for a significant number of them.

The USA is a single country with what's effectively two demographics, and one-and-a-half breeds of politician. "50 countries with different demographics geography culture and needs!" is a complete fabrication. Wyoming doesn't even have a million people in it; implying Wyoming is a country is like implying a go-kart is a jet.

Malta has less than a million people. Is it not a country?

Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#34

Post by Press2forEN »

pmiller2 wrote: post #4

This quote from Munger is what I find most interesting: > I do think, sooner or later, we’ll have an economy back, which will be a moderate economy. It’s quite possible that never again—not again in a long time—will we have a level of employment again like we just lost. We may never get that back for all practical purposes. I don’t know. There are roughly 2 ways this could go if what he says actually happens. One is…

Among the many problems with that idea is that no one agrees on the definition of a "fairly basic life." One leader's definition will be different from another, so we're ever at the mercy of gaining/losing benefits at the whim of (at least in the US) a distant and isolated ruling class.

Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#35

Post by teachrdan »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #31
pmiller2 wrote: post #4

This quote from Munger is what I find most interesting: > I do think, sooner or later, we’ll have an economy back, which will be a moderate economy. It’s quite possible that never again—not again in a long time—will we have a level of employment again like we just lost. We may never get that back for all practical purposes. I don’t know. There are roughly 2 ways this could go if what he says actually happens. One is…

> we take this opportunity to acknowledge that Keynes was right, and we don't have to work as much as we do. That isn't what Kenyes said. He said that in a recession/depression the government should spend more than it takes in, and the rest of the time it should spend less. So, if that equates to working less during a recession, we're going to have to work more during the good times. But as for working less in genera…

You're right about Keynes' general approach to handling a recession or depression, but OP is referring to Keynes' theory that people would be working only 15 hours a week by now: https://www.npr.org/2015/08/13/432122637/keynes-predicted-we...

Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#36

Post by whatok »

pmiller2 wrote: post #5
sputknick wrote: post #2

I think the challenge here is the government is probably offering better terms than can be expected from Buffet. If someone is offering me free money, and someone will give me money if I give them control of my company guess which one I'm calling first.

I wonder if that means Berkshire's recent bond offering was a mistake: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/12/this-warren-buffet... Berkshire has always held a ton of cash for just such an occasion. They can just buy up equity on the open market and take substantial control of a company. But, did they need even more money?

BRK issues regularly at the insurance company level. I wouldn't overthink it. Even with the recently issued USD bonds much wider, they're still yielding around the same at issue with rates much lower. Strong issuers like BRK should be taking advantage of much lower rates and extreme demand for investment grade bonds right now to refinance higher coupon debt.

Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#37

Post by hogFeast »

pmiller2 wrote: post #4

This quote from Munger is what I find most interesting: > I do think, sooner or later, we’ll have an economy back, which will be a moderate economy. It’s quite possible that never again—not again in a long time—will we have a level of employment again like we just lost. We may never get that back for all practical purposes. I don’t know. There are roughly 2 ways this could go if what he says actually happens. One is…

Countries with larger safety nets have basically similar levels of absolute poverty to the US (it is kind of tricky because most of those countries in the former are also far far smaller, and have very different population density/growth/migration patterns). And btw...yes, in other countries if you lose your job you can lose your house...this is true everywhere (and the US already has a public health system that is 50-75% of most of Europe)...that is kind of how mortgages and debt work. Saying that you wish you could just repudiate all your debt is very American (ironically, given that you seem to hold a non-American view of govt).

The most effective way to move people out of poverty is to create jobs. Whatever system you have, the only way it goes wrong (as it did for Europe through most of the 90/2000s) is when you cannot create jobs. There is no other option. America has got it 95% right.

And the main issue in the US is: are people willing to accept significant intervention into their working life from the govt? Are people willing to accept living in a society that is run for large corporations (it is funny that most Americans think they live there already, not even close)? Can the US bring immigration down significantly? Can the economy still function with lower immigration? Can the US still function with high prices of basic goods? The answer to almost all of those questions is no. America has a system that suits America...that is why they have it (and btw, if you talk to social policy academics from the countries with higher social safety nets, they will tell you the same thing).

Maybe this is controversial now but it is far easier to suggest that we should tear everything down than work out how to make progress with something that is mostly working.

Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#38

Post by misun78 »

ctdonath wrote: post #9
jacquesm wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole idea that 'being social' equates to 'socialism', the bogeyman edition is what will stop for instance the United States from adopting a more social agenda. Free - or at least affordable - public healthcare, public transportation, internet access and access to things like clean water should be a basic standard of living for any country that does not want to be labelled 'third world'. Instead, that whole agend…

The USA is effectively 50 countries with different demographics, geography, culture, and needs. Trying to impose any “one size fits all” solution won’t work because it’s not appropriate for a significant number of them.

The issue with something like “free” healthcare is that proposed policies like Medicare for all only really talks about the demand side of the equation. It purports to expand the coverage without mentioning how we can pay doctors more so there is more of them, incentivize the private sector to produce (and profit from) top-notch drug treatments, reduce personnel and bureaucratic inefficiencies (which mind you implies layoffs which is the inverse of what government controlled sectors are associated with) etc.

In the absence of that missing supply side conversation, the proposals do start to resemble as forms of socialism i.e a simple redistribution and reversal to the mean with no major improvement to the overall system. Add assumed inefficiencies with government run systems, and you now have a more evenly distributed system but one that’s fundamentally worse in aggregate than the one before i.e. quite literally socialism of the 20th century that’s been tried and failed over and over again.

Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#39

Post by chrisco255 »

minikites wrote: post #14
ctdonath wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA is effectively 50 countries with different demographics, geography, culture, and needs. Trying to impose any “one size fits all” solution won’t work because it’s not appropriate for a significant number of them.

Where is "access to clean water" (or frankly, anything on the list) not appropriate?

In rural communities, you're most often getting your water from a well. I grew up in an area like this, with a pumped well and septic system. There was no need for public water infrastructure because the density did not necessitate it, and the natural aquifer more than provided for those needs.

Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#40

Post by cronopios »

jsanford9292 wrote: post #30
bob33212 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I totally agree. Some of the same people who roll they eyes at homeless people asking for change and fire employees for a couple weeks of low productivity are the same people who are now taking free money from the government without any guilt.

Sometimes I wish we could pick a US state and turn it into this vision. Social safety net for all, free healthcare for all, no loopholes for the rich. There are so many people who would like to see how this plays out. And more importantly, the expectation of the outcome varies WILDLY from smart person to smart person. Personally, I believe this state would be bankrupt in a matter of years, companies that produce tax…

Scandinavian countries didn't bankrupt. Rather the opposite.
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