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When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

theatlantic.com

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Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#31

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

vikramkr wrote: post #20
thymanl23 wrote: post #7

The crux of the article: "The answer is simple, if not exactly satisfying: when enough of the population—possibly 60 or 80 percent of people—is resistant to COVID-19" But then in the next paragraph nonchalantly says "though we don’t yet know if recovering from the disease confers any immunity at all" I'm not sure sure how articles like these get published.

I mean, that makes perfect sense. Itll stop when people are resistant. Are people becoming resistant? We dont know. Its presenting the state of things, and that includes uncertainty

It's a very misleading sense of uncertainty. There's every reason to believe people gain long-lasting immunity, and no way to concretely prove it right now. No public health authority is seriously considering the possibility that survivors aren't immune.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#32

Post by capableweb »

ianai wrote: post #9

If I understand it right, in a “perfect universe” if every person was able to stay home for 14 days and also perfectly avoided infecting anyone then the virus would effectively have died off. The 14 day’s might not be the exact time required but it illustrates a concept. We of course can’t uphold that perfect universe. So we’re stuck using that technique to slow it’s roll enough that it won’t overwhelm and kill like…

I live in Spain. We've been in full quarantine at home for about two weeks today. The cases are still raising, and so are the deaths.

I think the two week mark is the bare minimum, ideally you would have two weeks for symptoms to surface, then additional time until you're healthy and then two weeks more. So one month and a bit more.

Which, seems to be the way we're going, as the quarantine here is seemingly continuing.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#33

Post by logicchains »

cjcenizal wrote: post #11

I think a worst case scenario is one in which: - The virus becomes seasonal, like the flu - Like the flu, every year there are new strains (so surviving it doesn’t grant immunity) - And we’re unable to develop a vaccine for it Someone please correct me if I’m wrong but this scenario implies that the situation we’re in now becomes the new normal. Every year, we’ll lose an additional percentage of our elderly and those…

> Like the flu, every year there are new strains (so surviving it doesn’t grant immunity)

Even if it mutates, the immune systems of people who recovered from it this year will still be able to fight it much better next year, because they've learned how to fight that kind of virus. This is why even though the flu mutates every year, it isn't particularly lethal: our bodies have learned how to fight that kind of virus.

If however one were to take the flu to e.g. an uncontacted tribe who'd never encountered influenza before, it'd completely devastate them, much as how viruses from European settlers were estimated to have killed a double-digit percentage of the native American peoples.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#34

Post by kyriakos »

ianai wrote: post #9

If I understand it right, in a “perfect universe” if every person was able to stay home for 14 days and also perfectly avoided infecting anyone then the virus would effectively have died off. The 14 day’s might not be the exact time required but it illustrates a concept. We of course can’t uphold that perfect universe. So we’re stuck using that technique to slow it’s roll enough that it won’t overwhelm and kill like…

14 days probably not but with perfect isolation per household for 1-2 months it is possible. so assuming we can keep all services running unattended for that period of time (electricity, water, internet) and that each household somehow stocks up the bare minimum essentials for that period and finally somehow enforce the curfew without potentially exposing the police to the virus its doable.

BUT.. not going to happen, this can't even happen perfectly in China where the government can get away with a lot more than any western nation.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#35

Post by lucideer »

CloudYeller wrote: post #12

The words "contact" and "tracing" didn't even appear once in the article. Are people outside of Asia not even considering test'n'trace as a possibility? Privacy concerns aside, it seems like an effective way to save lives without forcing everyone to stay home indefinitely.

Contact tracing is, as far as I've read, the very first strategy initiated by most Western governments and health organisations. In the early stages of reported cases.

As it stands, my country is still in relatively early stages compared to many others, and contact tracing became unviable as a first defence well over a week ago. Over 60% of our cases are community transmission.

We're still doing contact tracing, it's probably worthwhile, but it's not going to be a major factor in mitigation.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#36

Post by sys_64738 »

If it lasts too long then it'll be over when people grow tired of it. People will weigh the risk/rewards and decide for themselves. If the authorities are not able to control the initial trickle then the dam will burst and people will decide what to do themselves. There's a very thin line of control of this whole issue.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#38

Post by ffdjjjffjj »

logicchains wrote: post #33
cjcenizal wrote: post #11

I think a worst case scenario is one in which: - The virus becomes seasonal, like the flu - Like the flu, every year there are new strains (so surviving it doesn’t grant immunity) - And we’re unable to develop a vaccine for it Someone please correct me if I’m wrong but this scenario implies that the situation we’re in now becomes the new normal. Every year, we’ll lose an additional percentage of our elderly and those…

> Like the flu, every year there are new strains (so surviving it doesn’t grant immunity) Even if it mutates, the immune systems of people who recovered from it this year will still be able to fight it much better next year, because they've learned how to fight that kind of virus. This is why even though the flu mutates every year, it isn't particularly lethal: our bodies have learned how to fight that kind of virus.…

We don’t develop immunity to other coronaviruses such as the common cold, so I don’t think we can assume we will for this one.

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#39

Post by joppy »

mrfusion wrote: post #2

No one really needs to be near other people. I think just keep it going. A lot of industries really aren’t essential to life. Maybe we should question why we need them. Theme parks, sports, gyms.

Some would argue that having fun and feeling fulfilled are essential to life, and for some that would put those three things firmly on the list. And interacting with other people is (in my opinion) basically the point of being alive, and it’s much easier to do if you’re near them.

Really if we only needed things that were essential to life, each of us could be living in a broom cupboard doing nothing and drinking Soylent for sustenance, but what kind of life would that be?

Re: When Will Coronavirus Social Distancing Be Over?

#40

Post by PopeDotNinja »

capableweb wrote: post #32
ianai wrote: post #9

If I understand it right, in a “perfect universe” if every person was able to stay home for 14 days and also perfectly avoided infecting anyone then the virus would effectively have died off. The 14 day’s might not be the exact time required but it illustrates a concept. We of course can’t uphold that perfect universe. So we’re stuck using that technique to slow it’s roll enough that it won’t overwhelm and kill like…

I live in Spain. We've been in full quarantine at home for about two weeks today. The cases are still raising, and so are the deaths. I think the two week mark is the bare minimum, ideally you would have two weeks for symptoms to surface, then additional time until you're healthy and then two weeks more. So one month and a bit more. Which, seems to be the way we're going, as the quarantine here is seemingly continuin…

I'm visiting Spain, staying on La Palma in the Canary Islands, and today was Day 16 of quarantine for me. I had to leave the house to return my rental car. It was so nice to get out of the house just for a little while! Here's a pic I took on the way back to the airport.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/k1kKJxjuHcdTJe4F6

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