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New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

theatlantic.com

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Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#31

Post by anonsubmit2671 »

empath75 wrote: post #2

Successive lockdowns and easings are probably going to continue for up to two years. Anybody arguing that the stock market or the economy is going to bounce back quickly in the next two months are either bullshitting you or deluding themselves. No “stimulus” package is going to be effective, because you can’t use spending to stimulate an economy which has been forced to stop producing goods and services. All you will…

First part is mostly correct.

Second part, you're dead wrong in two areas. Manufacturing of essential goods continues in haste. And, stimulus is essential for people have lost their jobs and need to buy food. So take your theoretical keyboard economics degree and leave it at the door. Let's take away your source of income, ability to work and see how you feed your family.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#32

Post by swsieber »

frosted-flakes wrote: post #25
vladd wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are significant second order effects (and 3rd, 4th degree effects and so on) that are difficult to foresee and accurately simulate. For example, just to continue on your train of thoughts, the number of average children in existing young families is going to go up, which is going to increase food consumption and, potentially decades later, construction activities in real estate.

Why would young families suddenly have more children?

There are various memes floating around about how there's going to be a surge of kids conceived during this quarantine/social distancing times.

In short, it seems likely people are going to have more sex when they are stuck at home.

OTOH, I know people with children who are going crazy. I don't they are encouraged to have more children.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#33

Post by bilbo0s »

chinathrow wrote: post #21
jariel wrote: post #19

This is terrible thinking: South Korea and other places have not locked down and they have effectively contained the virus. We are doing Trillions of damage they are avoiding. Given the costs we should be spending billions studying what they are doing. We need to understand more effectively how the virus is spreading and focus on those spots, not this lockdown stuff which is too costly. Some basic policies like mask-…

From the article: HK did in fact not effectively contain the virus. "In recent days, this semblance of normalcy has vanished. The number of confirmed cases here has ticked upward at a much quicker pace than before, worrying health experts. The government reversed course on its easing of restrictions, sending workers back home, closing parks and city facilities, and reiterating calls for social distancing."

It's actually even worse than that on the ground in HK right now.

Ban on non-residents. Groups of more than 4 people are broken up. A growing skittish-ness about "foreigners", (thought to be the people who brought the second wave of infections to HK). Etc etc.

HK and Tokyo are not examples to be emulated, they are examples of what we should be trying to avoid.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#34

Post by x3n0ph3n3 »

frosted-flakes wrote: post #25
vladd wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are significant second order effects (and 3rd, 4th degree effects and so on) that are difficult to foresee and accurately simulate. For example, just to continue on your train of thoughts, the number of average children in existing young families is going to go up, which is going to increase food consumption and, potentially decades later, construction activities in real estate.

Why would young families suddenly have more children?

The same reason that there are spikes in child births 9 months after a long snowstorm.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#35

Post by alexandercrohde »

tomatocracy wrote: post #30

The political acceptability of releasing then locking down again is likely to be very low in my view. Friends and colleagues I speak to who haven’t followed the modelling papers etc think the point of a lockdown is to eliminate the virus entirely - not contain, not delay but eliminate entirely. There is also a very strong fear of getting the virus (many of the same people are convinced that it’s a death sentence almo…

Right, if there's a resurgence I'm not participating. The cure would be worse than the disease.

I encourage susceptible populations to quarantine themselves, rather than everybody quarantining. We must work, date, and life must go on.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#36

Post by [deleted] »

frosted-flakes wrote: post #25
vladd wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are significant second order effects (and 3rd, 4th degree effects and so on) that are difficult to foresee and accurately simulate. For example, just to continue on your train of thoughts, the number of average children in existing young families is going to go up, which is going to increase food consumption and, potentially decades later, construction activities in real estate.

Why would young families suddenly have more children?

[deleted]

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#37

Post by [deleted] »

jariel wrote: post #22
chinathrow wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the article: HK did in fact not effectively contain the virus. "In recent days, this semblance of normalcy has vanished. The number of confirmed cases here has ticked upward at a much quicker pace than before, worrying health experts. The government reversed course on its easing of restrictions, sending workers back home, closing parks and city facilities, and reiterating calls for social distancing."

Sorry, I meant to wite South Korea.

[deleted]

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#39

Post by GavinMcG »

alexandercrohde wrote: post #35
tomatocracy wrote: post #30

The political acceptability of releasing then locking down again is likely to be very low in my view. Friends and colleagues I speak to who haven’t followed the modelling papers etc think the point of a lockdown is to eliminate the virus entirely - not contain, not delay but eliminate entirely. There is also a very strong fear of getting the virus (many of the same people are convinced that it’s a death sentence almo…

Right, if there's a resurgence I'm not participating. The cure would be worse than the disease. I encourage susceptible populations to quarantine themselves, rather than everybody quarantining. We must work, date, and life must go on.

The cure would likely be worse than the disease for you.

Are millions of people dying an acceptable trade-off for us to be able to date?

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#40

Post by vanniv »

Now that governments have proven that people will let them imprison everyone at any time, just by saying "virus", they're gearing up to do it again, all the time, forever, whenever it would be convenient.

After they've done it a few times, they'll just make it permanent.

By everyone agreeing to huddle terrified in their homes over nothing, we have permanently ended free movement and free assembly in our societies.

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