31–40 of 49 posts
Here's an old Flash game that you can play to see how it works: https://forio.com/simulate/mbean/near-beer-game/run/
What do you use to run embedded Flash these days? I haven't used Flash since all of the major browsers started blocking it.
I played this game during orientation when I started my MBA at MIT Sloan (the game was originated at Sloan). In my second year, I facilitated the game. The most eye-opening thing for me was that a good quarter of students were frustrated and surprised by the bullwhip effect. I'd guess the general population would be even less understanding of a bullwhip effect. I think that help explains why it seems so many people d…
I played this game during orientation when I started my MBA at MIT Sloan (the game was originated at Sloan). In my second year, I facilitated the game. The most eye-opening thing for me was that a good quarter of students were frustrated and surprised by the bullwhip effect. I'd guess the general population would be even less understanding of a bullwhip effect. I think that help explains why it seems so many people d…
Ha! Same here. Almost started an IAP session with Senge to let people play it multiple times (with varying demand curves) because it seemed to have a lot of exploration left...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's funny you should mention that, because most PID configurations are not very stable. Once you introduce the Integral and the Derivative, if you're not careful that PID will oscillate into the stratosphere. In fact, I'd say that PID's that are functioning most efficiently are very nearly tuned to the point of oscillating. Even worse is the kinds of adjustments you have to make to PID's when there is significant la…
Indeed. Control loops are generally limited by the bandwidth of the system they are controlling, and lag in the system limits the bandwidth you can achieve. Trying to get a PID loop to move a system faster than that system's bandwidth will just create oscillations, and the more tightly the PID is tuned the worse its behaviour when exposed to shocks (especially when the system becomes significantly non-linear in the p…
Even when no communication is allowed during the game, some kind of PID control could make the supply chain stable.
A major insight of the field is that lags due to accumulation create wildly unexpected behaviours in systems that humans try to control. Many automated systems struggle too.
I’ve never understood how you win the beer distribution game, people only ever talk about the effects on the supply chain it seems. But how do you mitigate?
Communication, as soon as people are allowed to exchange information, results get a lot better. Teams can start planning, based on real customer demand,backlogs and so on. This changes everything.
and still there will be bullwhips because the future contains uncertainties like "when is the next coronavirus outbreak?"
Silicon Valley operates on secrets (what do Google Amazon and Facebook do with your data? anything that is not simply further stacking the deck against you?) the elimination of which is the direction reform minded people should go with regulations.
I first learned about this from reading Peter Senge's The Fifth Discipline . If you're interested in this sort of thing, TFD is a worthy read. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fifth_Discipline https://www.amazon.com/Fifth-Discipline-Practice-Learning-Or...
Causal loop diagrams are basically toys, useful only during initial hypothesis formation. You need a stock-and-flow model to actually test and elaborate your hypothesis.
The best all-round introductory book I have read in this area is still Sterman's Business Dynamics. 1st edition hardbacks are out of print, but there are second-hand copies and also cheap international editions around. A 2nd edition is expected next year.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ha! Same here. Almost started an IAP session with Senge to let people play it multiple times (with varying demand curves) because it seemed to have a lot of exploration left...
Wow, I didn't realise there are so many Sloanies here. I attended a class where Jay Forrester himself came in to teach for a day (in 1998), in his eighties. Impressive man, yet so humble.
Contract info is in my profile. Drop a line and we can grab 6-foot-distance coffee!
Why is it called bullwhip effect?