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Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

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Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#31

Post by mattbrewsbytes »

An unscientific observation about "summer" is in the west, schools aren't in session. That might be a very large contributor to the spread of all viruses.

I think there are too many variables to approach this scientifically and people won't really care how it diminishes. Just do everything possible to limit the spread while scientists formulate a vaccine of sorts.

Suggesting that a seasonal change could even be considered dangerous because it may lead people to believe that containment is no longer necessary. It's only "summer" for roughly half the planet, right?

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#32

Post by perl4ever »

mvanaltvorst wrote: post #26
perl4ever wrote: post #4

It seems to me mathematically certain that it will. A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000. 337000*(337/170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion. 14.5 weeks from now is July 1st. So either it diminishes or it's over by July, guaranteed.

You can't extrapolate the spread of viruses using an exponential function, you have to use a logistic function. Unfortunately, there isn't enough data to accurately fit a logistic function right now.

My mathematical intuition may not be any good, but if you are saying it will be a sigmoid type curve, would doubling the time be plausible?

But this is not in disagreement with my comment, since this would involve slowing down.

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#33

Post by perl4ever »

alexanderhorl wrote: post #13
perl4ever wrote: post #4

It seems to me mathematically certain that it will. A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000. 337000*(337/170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion. 14.5 weeks from now is July 1st. So either it diminishes or it's over by July, guaranteed.

This is not taking into account the slowdown of spread due to containment measures.

Either it will A or B, where A is "slows down". How is that "not taking into account the slowdown"?

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#34

Post by 2snakes »

jgalt212 wrote: post #27
mvanaltvorst wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't extrapolate the spread of viruses using an exponential function, you have to use a logistic function. Unfortunately, there isn't enough data to accurately fit a logistic function right now.

Tell that to the "shutdown the world people". The entire basis of this response is the exponential function.

With physical distancing, it may be exponential at first, but then taper off, like it did in Wuhan: https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800632...

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#35

Post by reddit_clone »

MR4D wrote: post #14

Houston has high humidity, and will make it into the 90’s this week. If this is true, it should slow down here before someplace colder, right? I would presume that if it doesn’t, then this summer assumption is not relevant.

At the very least I hope the heat/sunlight would kill the viruses quicker when someone infected coughs on a park bench or something like that..

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#36

Post by ganeshkrishnan »

eliseumds wrote: post #12
ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Likewise in Australia. I suspect this study hints that person to person transmission is not affected but that the virus has lower viability via surface spread in hot and humid climates. Australia is much more densely packed in Urban areas than other countries like India and in spite of favorable weather conditions the person to person transmission is high. They haven't enforced the shelter in place yet

Sorry? Australia's biggest cities are orders of magnitude less dense than Indian cities. Think 10-100x less.

I didn't mean the population density. I meant the density of urban vs rural spread. Australia has the world's highest urban ratio (around 96%) and extremely well connected. India is more spread out.

I think the real reason why India has a low count (for now!) is because it's a world away from China in terms of people travelling to each other while Australia is very deeply connected to Australia (students + mining export).

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#37

Post by nikolay »

MR4D wrote: post #14

Houston has high humidity, and will make it into the 90’s this week. If this is true, it should slow down here before someplace colder, right? I would presume that if it doesn’t, then this summer assumption is not relevant.

Heat, cold, sun, snow, and humidity don't have any effect on the virus (according to WHO). It was spreading rapidly in the Southern Hemisphere when it was Summer there.
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