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Coronavirus: the second-weirdest solution?

scottaaronson.com

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Re: Coronavirus: the second-weirdest solution?

#32
post #19

I got sick 12 times my first year living in a city again. I got pretty paranoid after that and now I mentally have a "my hands are infected" notion as soon as I touch something outside the house. The very first thing I do upon entering my apartment or a restaurant is to wash them. Unfortunately I still touch my face sometimes while my hands are potentially dirty, I need to be more careful about that. I've got sick a…

It could also be because your immune system got used to the change in environment. I honestly don’t understand the particular level of fear around COVID-19 when compared to other flu outbreaks. Can anyone point me to a concise explanation? I mean, I get that it’s a new virus we’ve never seen before, but what distinctly sets it apart? Everything I’ve read says that it affects older people and those with a compromised…

For one, fear is irrational. It is based on a perception of threat and we as humans do it in many ways. One way is to see that others are afraid and therefore we should too. To add to this, the fear is not entirely unfounded. Estimates of the fatality are between 1% to 4%. No proper case fatality statistics can be computed as the epidemic is not over/have not gone long enough yet. At 1%, this is already 10 times the fatality rate of the seasonal flu so no, this is not just a bad flu season. This is an exceptionally bad flu season.

The reason I think countries are still trying to contain it is because if we allow the this flu strain to become seasonal because of lack of containment, it becomes an ongoing price that we have to pay each year. Within each new strain of flu that we encounter in the future, if we successively fail to contain each one, there will be many more strains of flu seasonally. Of course, a technological breakthrough may alter such a course.

Re: Coronavirus: the second-weirdest solution?

#33
post #19

I got sick 12 times my first year living in a city again. I got pretty paranoid after that and now I mentally have a "my hands are infected" notion as soon as I touch something outside the house. The very first thing I do upon entering my apartment or a restaurant is to wash them. Unfortunately I still touch my face sometimes while my hands are potentially dirty, I need to be more careful about that. I've got sick a…

It could also be because your immune system got used to the change in environment. I honestly don’t understand the particular level of fear around COVID-19 when compared to other flu outbreaks. Can anyone point me to a concise explanation? I mean, I get that it’s a new virus we’ve never seen before, but what distinctly sets it apart? Everything I’ve read says that it affects older people and those with a compromised…

COVID-19 mortality is about one order of magnitude higher than that of a regular flu, for every age group. That's a lot. And R0 is higher. And there is no vaccine. And the US botched the response with its stupid "don't test, don't tell" policy.

I estimate my probability of dying from COVID-19 this year to be higher than from all other reasons combined, and I'm not that old yet.

Re: Coronavirus: the second-weirdest solution?

#34
post #19

I got sick 12 times my first year living in a city again. I got pretty paranoid after that and now I mentally have a "my hands are infected" notion as soon as I touch something outside the house. The very first thing I do upon entering my apartment or a restaurant is to wash them. Unfortunately I still touch my face sometimes while my hands are potentially dirty, I need to be more careful about that. I've got sick a…

It could also be because your immune system got used to the change in environment. I honestly don’t understand the particular level of fear around COVID-19 when compared to other flu outbreaks. Can anyone point me to a concise explanation? I mean, I get that it’s a new virus we’ve never seen before, but what distinctly sets it apart? Everything I’ve read says that it affects older people and those with a compromised…

Case fatality rate for swine flu was around 0.02%[1]. There's still a lot of uncertainty around 2019-nCoV, but most estimates appear to be closer to 1-2%.

You're not wrong in that old and sick people are the affected the most, but it's significantly worse compared to e.g. Influenza[2].

[1]: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-...

[2]: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jbloom/CoV_vs_flu_CFR/mast...

Re: Coronavirus: the second-weirdest solution?

#35
post #19

I got sick 12 times my first year living in a city again. I got pretty paranoid after that and now I mentally have a "my hands are infected" notion as soon as I touch something outside the house. The very first thing I do upon entering my apartment or a restaurant is to wash them. Unfortunately I still touch my face sometimes while my hands are potentially dirty, I need to be more careful about that. I've got sick a…

It could also be because your immune system got used to the change in environment. I honestly don’t understand the particular level of fear around COVID-19 when compared to other flu outbreaks. Can anyone point me to a concise explanation? I mean, I get that it’s a new virus we’ve never seen before, but what distinctly sets it apart? Everything I’ve read says that it affects older people and those with a compromised…

[deleted]

Re: Coronavirus: the second-weirdest solution?

#36

The info from China shows that it spreads primarily through inhaling droplets, not through touching surfaces. Which is why I expect the epidemic to be way way worse outside of Asia, since in the West people don't wear masks and are actively discouraged by the health authorities.

From what I have observed, it seems both South Korea’s and China’s outbreaks are largest among cities near rivers. I have also read of the virus being detected in feces. Is it possible the virus is being spread via the water supply? The waste treatment plants dump into the river, as well as septic runoff, and humans just deciding to defecate in or near the rivers. Additionally, if it is possible for dogs to carry the…

Chlorine. They put it in water for a reason.

Re: Coronavirus: the second-weirdest solution?

#37
post #19

I got sick 12 times my first year living in a city again. I got pretty paranoid after that and now I mentally have a "my hands are infected" notion as soon as I touch something outside the house. The very first thing I do upon entering my apartment or a restaurant is to wash them. Unfortunately I still touch my face sometimes while my hands are potentially dirty, I need to be more careful about that. I've got sick a…

It could also be because your immune system got used to the change in environment. I honestly don’t understand the particular level of fear around COVID-19 when compared to other flu outbreaks. Can anyone point me to a concise explanation? I mean, I get that it’s a new virus we’ve never seen before, but what distinctly sets it apart? Everything I’ve read says that it affects older people and those with a compromised…

Mortality-wise it looks to be around 20x worse than flu, and easy to spread before outward symptoms manifest. There's no vaccine, so the usual partial herd immunity isn't present, and no confirmed treatments yet beyond trying to help your own immune system. As you say, it will probably be mild for most people who catch it (but who wants to risk "probably"), but certainly worse if you're not in good shape.

Panic buying is just like a rush on the bank; if everyone buys more than usual there will be a temporary shortage of stock, and no-one wants to be caught short on the loo. People are anticipating needing to self-quarantine for 2+ weeks (probably more if you need to isolate your whole family), but without knowing which two weeks the timer starts. And people are probably vaguely aware that there will be a supply crunch in a few months because China's manufacturing lines have been slowed and the knock on effects haven't fed through yet.

Re: Coronavirus: the second-weirdest solution?

#38
post #19

I got sick 12 times my first year living in a city again. I got pretty paranoid after that and now I mentally have a "my hands are infected" notion as soon as I touch something outside the house. The very first thing I do upon entering my apartment or a restaurant is to wash them. Unfortunately I still touch my face sometimes while my hands are potentially dirty, I need to be more careful about that. I've got sick a…

It could also be because your immune system got used to the change in environment. I honestly don’t understand the particular level of fear around COVID-19 when compared to other flu outbreaks. Can anyone point me to a concise explanation? I mean, I get that it’s a new virus we’ve never seen before, but what distinctly sets it apart? Everything I’ve read says that it affects older people and those with a compromised…

We're just trying to slow the spread so not all the vulnerable population - there's a large number, end up in the hospital simultaneously.

If that happens, then everyone is more likely to die when they need the hospital for unrelated reasons and can't get treated because its doors are shut.

You may be young and healthy and not be concerned, but if you're spreading it around carelessly you're facilitating the nightmare scenario of a collapsing healthcare system.

Re: Coronavirus: the second-weirdest solution?

#39
post #23
post #4

Rather than covering everything with dirt, you just have to make everyone believe it. In HK, this has been quite successful. Pretty much everyone refuses to touch the buttons on an elevator, handrails on escalators or the MTR etc.

How do people get from floor to floor in the elevator?

Use a tissue or, increasingly, gloves.

Re: Coronavirus: the second-weirdest solution?

#40
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I have observed, it seems both South Korea’s and China’s outbreaks are largest among cities near rivers. I have also read of the virus being detected in feces. Is it possible the virus is being spread via the water supply? The waste treatment plants dump into the river, as well as septic runoff, and humans just deciding to defecate in or near the rivers. Additionally, if it is possible for dogs to carry the…

Chlorine. They put it in water for a reason.

I upvoted you...

Right, but Chlorine is only effective against certain types of virii.

Some municipalities instead use some sort of chloramine, or both.

In, addition, neither of these is effective on some virii, so UV is used also.

I am no expert, but from what I have read so far, depending on the virus, the above solutions differ in effectiveness.

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