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My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

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Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#31

Post by tomerico »

Looking at countries with wide community spread[1] the spread is very clearly tied to cold weather (Europe, Korea, and Iran). This pattern is similar to other air transmitted viruses such as the Flu. Warmer countries seem to be resilient despite some having higher density and lower hygiene standards (e.g. India).

Given that the default assumption should be the COVID-19 will follow the flu pattern of diminishing rapidly in March up to barely any case in April [2]. This by no means try to diminish actions to be cautious, or the risk it imposes. However, if you are asked to put money on a certain direction, betting on warming up weather reducing the R value of the virus enough to stop it is what I would do.

[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Sort by new cases) [2] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#32

Post by czbond »

Apocryphon wrote: post #2

> this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens. They said 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, too. So what’s the next black swan that will unsettle the market in 2032? The Big One finall…

We will not learn from this. The Fed knows they HAVE to keep the market going for 3 reasons: 1) big institutions pressure them to 2) They must keep pensions from tanking, or we have severe issues with retirement rate 3) Most importantly, it is easier to print money forever than to actually create jobs and real growth

Edit: on #2, it is 'cheaper' to print money to prop pensions up than to have millions of retirees eating dog food

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#33

Post by mynegation »

Apocryphon wrote: post #2

> this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens. They said 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, too. So what’s the next black swan that will unsettle the market in 2032? The Big One finall…

I work in finance. We learned a ton from 2008. The amount of new regulation and oversight that came as a result is insane.

We will learn from 2020 too.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#34

Post by danenania »

katmannthree wrote: post #14
Apocryphon wrote: post #2

> this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens. They said 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, too. So what’s the next black swan that will unsettle the market in 2032? The Big One finall…

I think this is a terrific example of normalcy bias, a "tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they normally have functioned and therefore to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects"[0]. China has provided roughly a month's advance warning on how this virus plays out in terms of infectivity and severity (~20% of cases are serious / require medical atte…

I really don't get the seeming dismissal of masks as a tool to contain spread. I understand that there's a shortage and healthcare workers are the priority (as they should be), but it seems to me that in theory the absolute fastest way to contain this would be to get everyone on the planet wearing masks for a month or two.

I keep seeing statements to the effect of "a mask only helps if you're already sick", but we don't know who's sick and who isn't! The only way to ensure all the sick people are wearing masks is to get everyone wearing masks. But perhaps it isn't possible to ramp up production fast enough to make this realistic?

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#35

Post by elicash »

crystaldev wrote: post #27

Coronavirus has been circulating for months now. Many of us have already beaten it. That's why spread is linear and not gripping the world like it should be at this point: The "spread" is a measurement of panic and vigilant diagnosis. This is most carefully observed cold of all time. I was stocking up on dry goods and such like everybody else. After the past few days I feel like a panicked fool. Almost every single d…

Vigilant diagnosis? Isn't the biggest issue for the U.S. right now that we're not able to test nearly enough people?

As far as stocking up, my understanding was that the reason for picking up an extra couple items each time you go to the store was in case eventually certain areas are rec'd to work from home and such. Maybe that won't happen, but it's not like that stuff would go to waste.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#36

Post by rmolin88 »

tomerico wrote: post #31

Looking at countries with wide community spread[1] the spread is very clearly tied to cold weather (Europe, Korea, and Iran). This pattern is similar to other air transmitted viruses such as the Flu. Warmer countries seem to be resilient despite some having higher density and lower hygiene standards (e.g. India). Given that the default assumption should be the COVID-19 will follow the flu pattern of diminishing rapid…

Very true! But the second wave, when winter returns in October, hit even harder [0]

See Deadly second wave section in the Spanish Flu [0]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#37

Post by myself248 »

jcadam wrote: post #15
Apocryphon wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Supposedly the climate may impede the virus’ ability to spread. https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2020/02/26/will-housto...

Part of the reason I had been hoping this virus wouldn't hit Florida (where I live) until summertime. It's miserably hot and humid down here from about June to September. Also, school would be out.

I tellya what, Florida real estate just went from bad to worse.

As if sea level rise swamping much of the coastal land wasn't enough, there's the so-called "silver tsunami" -- a large wave of Baby Boomers dying, and their homes being backfilled by a much smaller cohort of new retirees over the coming years.

If the virus becomes widespread in retiree-heavy areas, it's gonna compress a decade-plus of mortality into an incredibly short span. All sorts of places will be affected, but Florida is in for the worst of it.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#38

Post by davidw »

danenania wrote: post #34
katmannthree wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is a terrific example of normalcy bias, a "tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they normally have functioned and therefore to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects"[0]. China has provided roughly a month's advance warning on how this virus plays out in terms of infectivity and severity (~20% of cases are serious / require medical atte…

I really don't get the seeming dismissal of masks as a tool to contain spread. I understand that there's a shortage and healthcare workers are the priority (as they should be), but it seems to me that in theory the absolute fastest way to contain this would be to get everyone on the planet wearing masks for a month or two. I keep seeing statements to the effect of "a mask only helps if you're already sick", but we do…

> get everyone on the planet wearing masks for a month or two.

There aren't enough to go around, and they need to be changed after something like 2 hours - or is it 4?

It's easier to just keep people isolated, I guess.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#39

Post by crystaldev »

elicash wrote: post #35
crystaldev wrote: post #27

Coronavirus has been circulating for months now. Many of us have already beaten it. That's why spread is linear and not gripping the world like it should be at this point: The "spread" is a measurement of panic and vigilant diagnosis. This is most carefully observed cold of all time. I was stocking up on dry goods and such like everybody else. After the past few days I feel like a panicked fool. Almost every single d…

Vigilant diagnosis? Isn't the biggest issue for the U.S. right now that we're not able to test nearly enough people? As far as stocking up, my understanding was that the reason for picking up an extra couple items each time you go to the store was in case eventually certain areas are rec'd to work from home and such. Maybe that won't happen, but it's not like that stuff would go to waste.

We're testing people who would ordinarily not be tested already. That doesn't mean the diagnosis is wrong, or that COVID-19 isn't widespread.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#40

Post by filoleg »

Apocryphon wrote: post #23
justinzollars wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So it sounds like we didn’t learn much from 2008. Will we learn from 2020? We learned a lot from 2008. This is a different ball game. There is plenty of credit today. This is a supply shock. There are not applicable lessons from a credit crunch to a panic/virus induced supply shortage.

Aren’t there at least applicable lessons for dealing with an economic crisis regardless of the direct causes? Or preventative measures to take during a boom time? Because it sounds like once again irrational exuberance has caught up with us and we’re about to reap the whirlwind of lack of protection.

There are none, because “economic crisis” is too large of a category to have a one-size-fits-all universal solution for dealing with it. Every type of “economic crisis” has its own cure, like a virus in a way. And the kind birthed by 2008 is as far as possible from what we are dealing with right now.
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