31–34 of 34 posts
What events correspond to the recent peaks in the chart? It looks like the VC world was spooked around the start of December and nothing has changed its mind ever since. Given these are startups, I would expect much of the information to be private, but it seems highly unlikely this is a complete black box. Edit: The comments below raise good possibilities. My own (very naïve) research yielded that there was a sharp…
I wouldn't be surprised if the boom in deal amount was in turn driven by a small number of crazy large deals, assuming softbank, which given some big implosions last year has sobered up the amount given per deal. Again, this points to a healthier, more sustainable outlook since there are obvious longterm downsides to overinvesting in unicorns that can't possibly deliver.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
What do you think is the black swan? 9/11 and Lehman were black swans. The business cycle turning over is not a black swan, especially with the majority of finance people predicting a recession this year.
I wonder if we will come to consider Coronavirus a black swan? Despite the fact that it's dropped away from being the main headline in the US, the damage doesn't appear to be contained yet, and it will take time for all of the economic ripples to be felt. (I bring up economic effects because of the context, but I in no way mean to diminish the human suffering.)