Works fine for me, very slow to load.
You can bet that >90% of all these cases outside China are Chinese traveling back to foreign countries.
Coronavirus Real Time Map
31–40 of 146 posts
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
Deaths are mostly among immunocompromised, elderly or very young. Chances are you're going to be fine, if you get it, but it'll be a long and painful 2 weeks. The youngest adult that died was 34. That said with a mortality rate of 2%, affecting a country like China with 1.4 billion people, even if half the people get infected, that's 14 million dead. So overall serious on a large scale.
> even if half the people get infected You say "even" as if it's a conservative estimate, but to me 50% of the country's population being infected by the same virus sounds extreme. Wouldn't this be on the extreme side?
It seems to be as infectious as a cold. So no.
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
Deaths are mostly among immunocompromised, elderly or very young. Chances are you're going to be fine, if you get it, but it'll be a long and painful 2 weeks. The youngest adult that died was 34. That said with a mortality rate of 2%, affecting a country like China with 1.4 billion people, even if half the people get infected, that's 14 million dead. So overall serious on a large scale.
A relevant question is also, if most deaths really are among immunocompromised, elderly or very young, then how many of those 2% would have been killed by the flu or similar if coronavirus hadn't shown up? 14 million dead is terrible by any measure, but I'm wondering how much of a change over the norm it actually represents.
It's 3-4 orders of magnitude more deadly than the normal seasonal flu. The mortality rate is similar to SARS, but with far more infections.
The above comment saying that it "mostly" impacts elderly is a bit vague. The fact that within the first 100 deaths were multiple young healthy people means it is dangerous for the entire population. People in their 30s and 40s are not "old".
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#34One minor note is that the "real time" nature of this map is a bit deceiving at the moment, at least to me. While the specific figures imply that it's pulling data at a near real-time basis, it's still dependent on countries posting the latest figures in batch, and then being updated as last indicated in the top right. As of now, it seems verbal announcements precede the digital announcements and as such I've found j…
The realtime annotation is more because it's generic mapping software. All dashboards using this mapping software have that text.
The same site was handling fire information for the Australian bushfires and had the same text - although that was more "realtime" as the data source was being updated much more frequently.
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#35Found this report circulating on twitter from a junior doctor in Australia.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v...
Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions
> Key findings:
> ● We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (𝑅𝑅0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.
> ● We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.
> ● If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190 thousand (prediction interval, 132,751 to 273,649). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
> ● Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February.
> ● There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These should be considered when interpreting our findings.
Source:
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#36So based on the outcome so far (107 deaths, 63 fully recovered) the survival rate is 37%?
Unfortunately, none of the numbers are reliable at this point.
People are being turned away from hospitals. Dead patients are not being post-humously tested for coronavirus. Most patients hospitalized arent yet recovered (or dead) yet etc...
The only rate we know so far is the dead/hospitalized rate, which is around 13% - which comperable to SARS.
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#37@mods, there was the news the other day about Kobe's death. It got flagged, and for good reason.
Why is this coronavirus stuff not flagged also? There are currently 3 articles on the front page related to this. It just slipped or is there a reason for this?
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#38One minor note is that the "real time" nature of this map is a bit deceiving at the moment, at least to me. While the specific figures imply that it's pulling data at a near real-time basis, it's still dependent on countries posting the latest figures in batch, and then being updated as last indicated in the top right. As of now, it seems verbal announcements precede the digital announcements and as such I've found j…
Absolutely. It's marketing bullshit. Nobody has current figures. In fact, multiple specialist academics said ~3 days ago that only 5% of cases are confirmed, now may be less due to reports of equipment shortages, the additional time the virus has had to disperse geographically, and Chinese New Year. Therefore, we can multiply any official figures by 20x. Official figures are nearing 5,000 cases, which extrapolating f…
The exponential growth always slows at some point, so unconditionally multiplying by 20 is unrealistic.
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#39Found this report circulating on twitter from a junior doctor in Australia. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v... Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions > Key findings: > ● We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (𝑅𝑅0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating t…
What about a 99.99% reduction in travel? Wuhan has 11 million and 1% of that is 100k, I'd imagine the quarantine is more successful than preventing 100k people from travelling.
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#40Found this report circulating on twitter from a junior doctor in Australia. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v... Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions > Key findings: > ● We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (𝑅𝑅0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating t…
From what I've read so far, it seems that hosts can infect healthy people 1-2 weeks before first symptoms. Something missing though is how long after the infection does the host become active in spreading the virus.