Live data from Hacker News

Bloodbath for Science

blogs.discovermagazine.com

31–40 of 42 posts

Re: Bloodbath for Science

#31
post #6

The problem with the logic in this post is that it implies an unbounded amount of money funneled into research. In the real world, there's a bound on the amount of money that should be funneled into research. That bound should probably less than the amount of money it would take to bankrupt the supporting country. Any argument that doesn't even consider this question fails to impress me right out of the gate. There i…

> it implies an unbounded amount of money funneled into research

Er, no; it's complaining about a 20% cut in research. How does that imply unbounded money?

> the amount of money it would take to bankrupt the supporting country

The budget that's just been hacked at -- the DOE's science funding, which according to the article provides most of the US's funding for basic scientific research -- is about $5B. The US federal budget is somewhere north of $3T. It is not the science spending that is going to "bankrupt the supporting country".

> There isn't a government expenditure that can't be supported the exact same way and with virtually the same arguments

That would be fair comment if the proposal were a blanket 20% cut across all government spending. But of course it isn't. The proposed cuts are in fact about $100B, or about 3% of the federal budget. So the question isn't "should basic scientific research be exempt from cutbacks when the country's finances are in trouble?" but "should basic science suffer 7x greater cutbacks than government spending as a whole?".

(Actually, I bet these cutbacks aren't the whole story and there are other reductions going on that aren't covered by this list. So, who knows?, maybe the proposed cuts to basic science are only, say, at a 3x greater rate than the overall government spending reduction. That doesn't change the point I'm making.)

Re: Bloodbath for Science

#32
Actually, scientists aren't paid well.

There are a lot of talented PhDs who were willing to work for very little money ($30k), and these people will reluctantly leave.

The US is getting a more than its money worth. Cutting back will hurt the US more in the long run.

Many of them will be from overseas, who are doing important work that is impossible to get done in their own country, and this work is important not only to science itself but to humanity.

Re: Bloodbath for Science

#33
post #25
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stop thinking about government spending as if there's a magic money fountain and start thinking about it like it's your own money. Yes, it would be great to spend twice your income on a better car, but the mere fact that it would be a great car, a really great car, man nobody should have to live without this car car does not make it a good idea. Nothing that science research is going to feasibly produce is better tha…

This is usual argument, but it's purely academic in nature. Yes, by law, the government can continue to print money indefinitely. But guess what? At some point people will stop buying that debt. So even though the government has a mandate to continue printing paper and by definition can't go "bankrupt", that's effectively meaningless when people no longer accept your currency.

If by academic in nature you mean grounded in reality instead of a bad analogy then yes it is. Now that we've decided not to view the problem through the lens of personal or corporate finance we can look at the problem as it is: macroeconomics.

Luckily, we're in agreement! Yes, inflating away the problem is fraught with peril just as you say. But I will suggest to you that high unemployment is also very perilous. The rule of law beaks down when you have high unemployment for long periods of time. We've seen some instances of that recently…

In a time when private sector is laying off people, should the government also be cutting and reducing the workforce? What should these workers do? Its not like they chose old unneeded jobs: unemployment has been pretty even across industries.

As you know, this policy of belt-tightening is called austerity and the countries trying it aren't doing so great either. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austerity

Perhaps the government should act as a countercyclical balance to the private sector? When the private sector is irresponsible, takes too much risk and blows up, who is there to clean up the mess? The government can't just declare bankruptcy and start over. Perhaps we can view the government as a safety net, giving people jobs when the private sector fails to put them to work? Perhaps we can think of ways to make a robust and diverse private sector instead of one dominated by giant multinational risk-taking, non-competitive lobbyist machines that push risk onto the public and privatize the profits. That's what I want to see... a well regulated market with a diversity of companies trying to get ahead and a government overseeing it without playing favorites. Difficult. Maybe impossible. But that's where I want to go.

Re: Bloodbath for Science

#34
post #27

While I don't trust the government to pick the right things to slash, I am pretty sure there is a lot of bullshit research going on that could easily be slashed. It's probably not effective to not put any constraints on science research at all - there has to be some correcting factor like competition.

Unfortunately, that's not the case, Study after study shows that individuals in creative endeavours perform more poorly when they are incentivized by performance results (versus mechanical or rote tasks). However, that's not to say that we aren't overinvested in science. We are. I say that as a 2nd year "postdoc" in the biological sciences. The scare quotes are there because I got my job off of craigslist and because we spent the last 10 years creating too many junk PhDs who are just jamming up the hiring pipeline and keeping PhDs who care about intellectual pursuits away. And, yes, my job is really put in danger by this, but I don't care. I'm seeking 100% private, charitable funding for my next scientific endeavor.

Re: Bloodbath for Science

#35
post #6

The problem with the logic in this post is that it implies an unbounded amount of money funneled into research. In the real world, there's a bound on the amount of money that should be funneled into research. That bound should probably less than the amount of money it would take to bankrupt the supporting country. Any argument that doesn't even consider this question fails to impress me right out of the gate. There i…

>In the real world, there's a bound on the amount of money that should be funneled into research. That bound should probably less than the amount of money it would take to bankrupt the supporting country

More to the point, it should realistically take into account the real capabilities of the scientific community at large. If president Obama decided tomorrow, "hey, we're going to sink $10T into creating warp drive by the end of the decade": how many charlatans do you think would start scurrying toward the money? How many legitimate physicsts would shrug their shoulders knowing they'd just lost out on their collider grants and cobble together proposals for a piece of their action, scientific integrity be damned? How many startup companies would be formed as R&D rent-seekers to develop "next-gen metallurgy and materials science for the project"? And do you think that we would really have warp drive at the outset of 10 years?

Why is it so hard to consider that maybe, just maybe, we are already overinvested in science now, just as we would be if we sunk $10T into warp drive today? All the hallmarks are there. Record levels of fraud (see retractionwatch if you want your soul to sink a bit), severe PhD employment pipeline problems...

Re: Bloodbath for Science

#36
post #32

Actually, scientists aren't paid well. There are a lot of talented PhDs who were willing to work for very little money ($30k), and these people will reluctantly leave. The US is getting a more than its money worth. Cutting back will hurt the US more in the long run. Many of them will be from overseas, who are doing important work that is impossible to get done in their own country, and this work is important not only…

There are a lot of talented PhDs who were willing to work for very little money ($30k), and these people will reluctantly leave.

There, fixed that for you.

Re: Bloodbath for Science

#37
post #2

Maybe this will encourage scientists to interact with the public more and ask for funding from them instead. I don't even know why they're so important other than a vague "moar knowledge mean moar technology!"

Governments fund cures and vaccines for disease. Private companies don't work on cures, which is why the last things we've cured is polio, which was developed by an NIH-funded university researcher; and widespread famine through much of the developing world, by crop breeding and fertilizer research led by Norman Borlaug and the US and Mexican government.

your flawed assumption is that private companies are the only funding source. What about non-profit researcher foundations, such as HHMI? What you haven't seen is that in the past decade or two these foundations have been whittled away by the growing government behemoth. It used to be that every other graduate student was on some private grant or another, but now they are all written on RO1 NIH grants. With inflation eroding away at research endowments and faster-than-inflation growth in most laboratory equipment prices, a private research grant supplies maybe $100k a year, which is now insufficient to pay for even a research associate $50k + benefits, plus equipment. Plus, NIH gives research institutes "overhead" which is negotiated on a per-unit basis with each institute. So greedy-ass research institutes are not inclined to even allow their researchers to apply for grants which don't permit overhead.

When you have a line to an apparently unlimited line of credit, the practices are going to be wasteful because of perverse incentives (at the NIH they have glassware-breaking parties at the end of spending cycles to use up their budget because if they come underbudget they are at risk of having it reduced) and you are going squeeze out private (non-profit) competition.

Re: Bloodbath for Science

#38
post #33
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is usual argument, but it's purely academic in nature. Yes, by law, the government can continue to print money indefinitely. But guess what? At some point people will stop buying that debt. So even though the government has a mandate to continue printing paper and by definition can't go "bankrupt", that's effectively meaningless when people no longer accept your currency.

If by academic in nature you mean grounded in reality instead of a bad analogy then yes it is. Now that we've decided not to view the problem through the lens of personal or corporate finance we can look at the problem as it is: macroeconomics. Luckily, we're in agreement! Yes, inflating away the problem is fraught with peril just as you say. But I will suggest to you that high unemployment is also very perilous. The…

"Perhaps the government should act as a countercyclical balance to the private sector?"

Perhaps it should. The question is academic in all the bad senses, because while people love to cite Keynesian theories about how government should behave as if it's some sort of proved theory that admits no debate (itself a false statement, it was considered essentially disproved until suddenly it told the government what it wanted to hear and got itself revived; I fully expect it to be considered disproved again until it ends up convenient again), they fail to look out in the world and notice just how thoroughly our government is not acting Keynesian anyhow. The whole Keynesian multiplier argument falls apart if the government appropriates a dollar and then generates $0.30 of wealth with it, instead of >$1.00.

I'm well aware of the Keynesian argument. What I've noticed is that even by Keynesianism, if the goverment proves incapable of generating a multiplier Keynesianism itself says the government should spend less.

Having a pretty economic theory does not remove your responsibility to look out into the world and see if it actually describes reality. In reality, what the government is doing is not Keynesian stimulus.... it's just spending money.

Austerity countries are taking their hit now. Non-austerity countries are taking it later, and will take it bigger as a result.

Re: Bloodbath for Science

#39
post #27

While I don't trust the government to pick the right things to slash, I am pretty sure there is a lot of bullshit research going on that could easily be slashed. It's probably not effective to not put any constraints on science research at all - there has to be some correcting factor like competition.

Unfortunately, that's not the case, Study after study shows that individuals in creative endeavours perform more poorly when they are incentivized by performance results (versus mechanical or rote tasks). However, that's not to say that we aren't overinvested in science. We are. I say that as a 2nd year "postdoc" in the biological sciences. The scare quotes are there because I got my job off of craigslist and because…

I don't really know what system could work. The current "max out publications" approach apparently doesn't work, as it only leads to mass production with low substance. I guess it is unfortunate that the people with the money (politicians) are not in a position to really judge the science they are supposed to fund. So superficial judging criteria are bound to happen.

Re: Bloodbath for Science

#40
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, I don't think people realize just how broke the US is. In 9 years, the interest alone will consume 50% of the US budget. That doesn't leave enough to cover social security and medicare -- let alone anything else that the federal government does. Hopefully people will start demanding cuts in other places too, for instance the DEA, DOE, DOD, etc. There just isn't enough money. The DOD budget has increased 100%…

The problem is that the debt can only grow and grow and grow. Why? Because the government is not creating the money but borrowing it from the private banks..(the Federal Reserve is everything BUT 'federal') and the government needs to pay interest. That way, there's never enough money in existence to EVER pay of the debt, because the "debt" amount of money only exists.. not "debt + interest". So, the interest monster…

I confess I haven't watched it (sounds painful), since the basic premise is wrong.

The US Treasury borrows money by issuing Treasuries, yes. It then pays interest on those, yes. The Federal Reserve creates money, and then injects it by buying Treasuries (or, recently, MBS's and agency debt, I believe, as well).

The vast majority of Treasury notes, agency debt, MBS's, etc. are NOT held by the Federal Reserve. So the amount outstanding does not pose any significant constraint on the Federal Reserve's injection of money.

Even if /all/ outstanding Treasury debt were eliminated, that'd just mean the Fed would have to purchase other bonds.

Also, when the Federal Reserve buys Treasuries, it receives the interest payments. What does it do with that money? Well, it turns it over to the Treasury. (If you look at the Fed's annual reports, this is actually many billions) So the T-notes held by the Fed to inject the money essentially don't have interest paid on them, because the Treasury is paying the interest to itself, indirectly.

Post reply on HN