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Stocks Up $1T Since October

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Re: Stocks Up $1T Since October

#31

Post by tempsy »

WalterBright wrote: post #25
tempsy wrote: post #19

Never talk about stocks on HN. You will be downvoted by people who missed out on the 10 year bull market and desperately trying to justify their mistake by saying its a rigged scam that is akin to playing roulette at a casino.

I've been investing for 40 years. It's the same old story - there's no point in investing now, the market is as high as it will ever go. Fast forward a few years, there's regret one didn't invest, but now the market is as high as it will ever go, so not investing again. Rinse, repeat. A lifetime of missed opportunity.

Uh I mean clearly that wasn’t true for last 40 years continuously...

Dot com bubble, 9/11, 2008 recession

Re: Stocks Up $1T Since October

#32

Post by lixtra »

pacyu wrote: post #12

>who is buying these stocks? It’s not individuals. It’s not even pension funds. It’s not the private sector. Almost all the stock purchases are being bought back by corporations in share buyback programs. In other words, companies are buying their own stocks in order to push up the price stocks keep going up while only a minority benefits and not much is returned into actual growth http://michael-hudson.com/2017/08/s…

>> The Federal Reserve says it’s going to raise interest rates. Same thing with the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

I wouldn’t consider the text very accurate in hindsight.

Re: Stocks Up $1T Since October

#33

Post by Thorrez »

pacyu wrote: post #12

>who is buying these stocks? It’s not individuals. It’s not even pension funds. It’s not the private sector. Almost all the stock purchases are being bought back by corporations in share buyback programs. In other words, companies are buying their own stocks in order to push up the price stocks keep going up while only a minority benefits and not much is returned into actual growth http://michael-hudson.com/2017/08/s…

Do buybacks actually increase stock price? If a company buys back $1M in stock, that means it has $1M less in its bank account (meaning the company is now worth $1M less), but also $1M less stock is in circulation. Mathematically I would expect the price to stay the same.

Re: Stocks Up $1T Since October

#34

Post by WalterBright »

tempsy wrote: post #31
WalterBright wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been investing for 40 years. It's the same old story - there's no point in investing now, the market is as high as it will ever go. Fast forward a few years, there's regret one didn't invest, but now the market is as high as it will ever go, so not investing again. Rinse, repeat. A lifetime of missed opportunity.

Uh I mean clearly that wasn’t true for last 40 years continuously... Dot com bubble, 9/11, 2008 recession

You'd still be doing well even if you invested only at the high points. I'm quite good at buying right at the tippy-top just before it dives.

Re: Stocks Up $1T Since October

#35

Post by throwawayjava »

xyzzyz wrote: post #18
jjeaff wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just spitballing here, but I'm thinking the bottom 90% doesn't own much stock due to lack of funds. Not because they don't know how or because transaction fees are too high.

People making $180k a year lack funds to buy stocks? Yeah, that’s a no from me.

>> I'm thinking the bottom 90% doesn't own much stock due to lack of funds. Not because they don't know how or because transaction fees are too high.

> People making $180k a year lack funds to buy stocks? Yeah, that’s a no from me.

An individual person making $180K a year is in the 92nd percentile. Parent is talking about the other roughly 300 million people.

Re: Stocks Up $1T Since October

#36

Post by fahrradflucht »

ducttape12 wrote: post #9
treelovinhippie wrote: post #2

[flagged]

My 401k is invested in that same stock market, along with the retirement accounts of every other person in the United States. I hope the market continues to rise, especially since my parents will be retiring soon.

Why does this stand in conflict with acknowledging the fact that massive gains for stock prices (or property for that matter) caused by things like QE and alike, have massive social consequences since the ones that were already wealthy profit a lot more than the average Joes's 401k?

You can be a happy investor and still think about the dangers of rising inequality fueled by the market, no?

Re: Stocks Up $1T Since October

#37

Post by JumpCrisscross »

pacyu wrote: post #12

>who is buying these stocks? It’s not individuals. It’s not even pension funds. It’s not the private sector. Almost all the stock purchases are being bought back by corporations in share buyback programs. In other words, companies are buying their own stocks in order to push up the price stocks keep going up while only a minority benefits and not much is returned into actual growth http://michael-hudson.com/2017/08/s…

> Almost all the stock purchases are being bought back by corporations in share buyback programs

Buyback volume is comparable to dividend volume [1]. Both return cash to investors. From a macro perspective, focussing on one over the other is misleading.

Buyback and dividend cash can be consumed or re-invested. Given corporate buybacks pale in comparison to broader funds flows, it looks like it's being reinvested.

Even if every investor selling into a buyback consumed the cash, those buybacks are largely being funded by debt. On the net, that translates to investors hopping up the capital structure. Not exiting the capital markets.

[1] https://www.yardeni.com/pub/buybackdiv.pdf

Re: Stocks Up $1T Since October

#38

Post by tempsy »

WalterBright wrote: post #34
tempsy wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uh I mean clearly that wasn’t true for last 40 years continuously... Dot com bubble, 9/11, 2008 recession

You'd still be doing well even if you invested only at the high points. I'm quite good at buying right at the tippy-top just before it dives.

My point is that people have not been thinking “this is the top” for 40 years straight, not that people wouldn’t make money if they bought and hold through recessions.

Re: Stocks Up $1T Since October

#39

Post by [deleted] »

nif2ee wrote: post #24

Thanks to the Fed and quantitative easing, many entrepreneurs and investors who became super rich thanks to this scheme are now spamming my youtube and twitter homepage about their wisdom in everything in life from artificial intelligence to history just because they think they are geniuses and entitled to teaching the poor souls with mental deficiencies (everyone who isn't worth at least tens of millions of dollars)…

[deleted]

Re: Stocks Up $1T Since October

#40

Post by [deleted] »

tempsy wrote: post #38
WalterBright wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd still be doing well even if you invested only at the high points. I'm quite good at buying right at the tippy-top just before it dives.

My point is that people have not been thinking “this is the top” for 40 years straight, not that people wouldn’t make money if they bought and hold through recessions.

[deleted]
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