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We’re approaching the limits of computer power – we need new programmers

theguardian.com

31–40 of 265 posts

Re: We’re approaching the limits of computer power – we need new programmers

#31

Why do we need more computer power? I haven't upgraded my laptop since 2009 (well, I've replaced its HDD with an SSD 2 years ago and it made a huge difference) and I'm okay. Some people insist on photorealistic 3D graphics in the games they play, I agree that's cool but wouldn't say that's anything close to important.

It’s critical for a lot of scientific and industrial applications. Too many things just can’t be done without a supercomputer.

Re: We’re approaching the limits of computer power – we need new programmers

#32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if the software only needs to respond at a certain speed, scale will quickly make you either pay through the nose for better hardware or optimize the software so that it can respond in a small fraction of the original speed. The trick, as always, is finding balance between paying for hardware and paying developers.

But that is the case now too and in my experience it swung to paying through the nose for hardware in general; as more or less a sidetrack I take on projects where I optimise (mostly online) systems. Example; a few weeks ago a startup asked me to check out their setup as they were spending almost 30k$/mo on AWS. I spent a few days optimising and now they are down to less than 10k$. With some more work it will be a fe…

> almost 30k$/mo

That's like, a couple full-time developers, AIUI? Maybe even less than that. Perhaps the people who say "people are more expensive than hardware" have a point - at least in the Bay Area. Or you can move to the Rust Belt if you'd like a change.

Re: We’re approaching the limits of computer power – we need new programmers

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that is the case now too and in my experience it swung to paying through the nose for hardware in general; as more or less a sidetrack I take on projects where I optimise (mostly online) systems. Example; a few weeks ago a startup asked me to check out their setup as they were spending almost 30k$/mo on AWS. I spent a few days optimising and now they are down to less than 10k$. With some more work it will be a fe…

> almost 30k$/mo That's like, a couple full-time developers, AIUI? Maybe even less than that. Perhaps the people who say "people are more expensive than hardware" have a point - at least in the Bay Area. Or you can move to the Rust Belt if you'd like a change.

Sure, but my point was that they cut that bill with 20k PER month by giving me 5k one off... They gave me 10k runway to poke around but 5k was enough to fix it; it was simply that bad to start with. The low hanging fruit in most systems I see is really trivial to fix; they just have no one to do it... I bet other people here have seen that before when thrown into an existing project (and I read Spolsky at an impressionable point in my career so I am usually the one against rewriting the whole thing outright).

Re: We’re approaching the limits of computer power – we need new programmers

#34
post #31

Why do we need more computer power? I haven't upgraded my laptop since 2009 (well, I've replaced its HDD with an SSD 2 years ago and it made a huge difference) and I'm okay. Some people insist on photorealistic 3D graphics in the games they play, I agree that's cool but wouldn't say that's anything close to important.

It’s critical for a lot of scientific and industrial applications. Too many things just can’t be done without a supercomputer.

I disagree. I did my masters' on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and I'd say that a large fraction of supercomputer use (in fluid dynamics at least) is wasted. Mostly because people take naive approaches and end up computing the wrong thing, set up their simulation poorly, reinvent the wheel, use HPC on something that can be computed by hand, etc. If they read more of the literature they'd have a more solid grasp on things and use the software much more efficiently when they do use it.

My philosophy at the moment is to use HPC only when I've exhausted other possibilities. I think many people jump to HPC prematurely. The simpler approaches are so much cheaper that I think it's usually worthwhile. I'm skeptical of the argument that it's cheaper to use HPC than it is to use more efficient methods in this case, because the more efficient methods are often something like a few days spent reading to find the right equation or existing experimental data vs. at least that much setting up a simulation and longer to run it.

Edit: Bill Rider has a bunch of blog posts that make similar points:

https://wjrider.wordpress.com/2016/06/27/we-have-already-los...

https://wjrider.wordpress.com/2015/12/25/the-unfortunate-myt...

https://wjrider.wordpress.com/2016/05/04/hpc-is-just-a-tool-...

https://wjrider.wordpress.com/2016/11/17/a-single-massive-ca...

https://wjrider.wordpress.com/2014/02/28/why-algorithms-and-...

Re: We’re approaching the limits of computer power – we need new programmers

#36

I just don't buy this. I cut my teeth as a HPC programmer working with C and writing no-lock algorithms. There will always be a need for that, but realistically the vast majority of software being developed is simply not performance-critical. It's designed to work at human speed. Advances in language, compiler, and runtime implementations will continue to keep up with any growth in the need for performant application…

> It's designed to work at human speed.

It would be great if most applications worked at human speed. Instead we have web applications taking 5 seconds to load what is basically 3 records from a small database.

Re: We’re approaching the limits of computer power – we need new programmers

#37
Are there any progress/path to progress for making competitive 3D cpus/asics?

I understand that 3D has thermal issues but couldn't this be prevented by increasing (dead) dark silicon and maybe water cooling inside the 3D chip?

Not directly comparable but brains are state of the art of computing and are tri-dimensionals.

Re: We’re approaching the limits of computer power – we need new programmers

#38
It seems like there might be a pretty straight up tradeoff between difficulty of developing software and quantity of software produced. So the more we attempt to optimize at a lower level, the more time it takes to develop, and the less software someone can make and maintain. So, given that - would you rather lose 30-40% of the apps you use and like, but the rest are faster? Or keep using everything you have now?

There are exceptions to this, as with everything, but it's not as easy as this article makes it sound, i.e. "Just make faster stuff dummy!" There's always a cost.

Re: We’re approaching the limits of computer power – we need new programmers

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that is the case now too and in my experience it swung to paying through the nose for hardware in general; as more or less a sidetrack I take on projects where I optimise (mostly online) systems. Example; a few weeks ago a startup asked me to check out their setup as they were spending almost 30k$/mo on AWS. I spent a few days optimising and now they are down to less than 10k$. With some more work it will be a fe…

You're quite right that there's plenty to optimize. It's not that there isn't money in optimizing. It's that there's often not _enough_ money in optimizing to rise to the level of the top N priorities for a business.

And ofcourse, there is a limit to what you want to spend even if it might make some profit long term. You need to be able to find programmers to maintain things etc as well. If I needed something handling massive traffic while handling real business logic but not allowed to cost more than a few bucks in hosting, I would use something like [0]. But that would be silly for maintenance reasons alone. Does anyone know a modern (well maintained I mean really) equivalent though? I played around with this a long time ago and it is incredibly efficient.

[0] http://datadraw.sourceforge.net/ (github; https://github.com/waywardgeek/datadraw as sourceforge seems down)

Edit; maybe I answered that last question by finding a github version: seems waywardgeek does maintain at least to keep it running.

Re: We’re approaching the limits of computer power – we need new programmers

#40
post #31

Why do we need more computer power? I haven't upgraded my laptop since 2009 (well, I've replaced its HDD with an SSD 2 years ago and it made a huge difference) and I'm okay. Some people insist on photorealistic 3D graphics in the games they play, I agree that's cool but wouldn't say that's anything close to important.

It’s critical for a lot of scientific and industrial applications. Too many things just can’t be done without a supercomputer.

Can these areas really be optimized on the code level? Aren't serious computation algorithms already implemented the best way known to computer science and optimized to the hardware architecture? I agree most of the software is bloated but I don't know if scientific computation software in particular is.

And by the way I believe the software code is not the only place which could be made more efficient. What if we removed all the legacy stuff from the x86 architecture - wouldn't it become more efficient? What if we designed a new CPU with a particular modern programming language and advanced high-level computer science concepts in mind - wouldn't it make writing efficient code easier?

Also, what are the actual tasks we need so much number-crunching power for, besides things of questionable value like face recognition, deep-fake, passwords cracking and algorithmic trading?

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