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Nokia Is Said to Be Near Software Partnership With Microsoft

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Re: Nokia Is Said to Be Near Software Partnership With Microsoft

#31

Post by philwelch »

PakG1 wrote: post #27
Kylekramer wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a reason the term "Wintel" was created. But I'd bet they can't pull it off again.

I think the primary point would be that Wintel created a brand new market that hadn't yet really been developed yet. This time around (if it really happens), they're attacking a market that's pretty well developed. Still growing, but by no means at an infant stage.

The distinction between "a brand new market that hasn't yet really been developed yet" and a market that's "well developed [but] still growing" can only be drawn in retrospect. Wintel was a decade late to personal computers, but it turns out a decade late was early enough.

Re: Nokia Is Said to Be Near Software Partnership With Microsoft

#32

Post by zmmmmm »

azakai wrote: post #6

So, Nokia is said to prefer a 'partnership' with Microsoft, as opposed to being just another hardware vendor working with Google's Android. That means Nokia would have a special status with Windows Phone 7. Would the other hardware vendors Microsoft has been working with be kicked out, leaving WP7 to run only on Nokia hardware? I find it hard to think of any other 'special status' Nokia can have, if other vendors als…

> Would the other hardware vendors Microsoft has been working with be kicked out, leaving WP7 to run only on Nokia hardware?

Exactly my thought. Even if they are not "kicked out" I can't see how it wouldn't have a huge negative effect on all the other manufacturers of WP7 phones if they perceive it is not a level playing field. They would immediately redouble their Android efforts and drop priority on WP7. To me, adding Nokia but losing HTC, Samsung, LG and Motorola would be a giant net loss. So it doesn't make sense for me on the MS side.

And on the Nokia side, if Nokia goes exclusively WP7 with no fallback options they would seem to be taking an enormous risk - however much anybody likes it WP7 is just not proven yet - it seems bizarre to bet the whole company on something that is unproven and depends totally on another partner, especially one who has been so fickle in the past (eg: Kin).

Re: Nokia Is Said to Be Near Software Partnership With Microsoft

#33

Post by electromagnetic »

philwelch wrote: post #29
StavrosK wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know, I bet two drunks tied together would be way more stable than one. Four legs are better than two.

Two drunks tied together don't make four legs. They make two legs vs. two legs.

I'm with you on that, I expect the probability of 'drunks tied together' falling down to increase following the square-cube law.

I have a similar theory that the reason female washrooms always seem to have too few stalls is because their is a square-law going on. Ever notice how when your wife/girlfriend/friend goes to the washroom on their own they take roughly the same time as a guy, but when they go with their friend they easily take double the time it would for two guys, even assuming only one stall available. This is my reasoning on why buildings increase the number of washrooms rather than simply expanding on the one despite the extra washrooms usually being in inconvenient locations.

I think somewhere some architect built a banquet hall with a 100 stall female washroom and at a function all the women knew each other, meaning they spent like two-weeks in the washroom and resorted to cannibalism.

Re: Nokia Is Said to Be Near Software Partnership With Microsoft

#34

Post by philwelch »

electromagnetic wrote: post #33
philwelch wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two drunks tied together don't make four legs. They make two legs vs. two legs.

I'm with you on that, I expect the probability of 'drunks tied together' falling down to increase following the square-cube law. I have a similar theory that the reason female washrooms always seem to have too few stalls is because their is a square-law going on. Ever notice how when your wife/girlfriend/friend goes to the washroom on their own they take roughly the same time as a guy, but when they go with their fri…

Female washrooms also have queueing inefficiencies compared to male washrooms. Women need a stall no matter what, men only need a stall in some cases and a urinal for other cases. And urinals have much higher throughput.

Re: Nokia Is Said to Be Near Software Partnership With Microsoft

#35

Post by YooLi »

StavrosK wrote: post #21
potatolicious wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "However, it seems it would make much more sense for Nokia to just fork Android, which is also a viable platform, and a more popular one at that. Also, it is free of cost, unlike WP7." I've seen WP7 run faster on remarkably little hardware - it's a lot like iOS in that sense. Where even Froyo would lurch and struggle, iOS and WP7 have been shown to make very snappy experiences out of relatively old hardware. This c…

I don't know about that, my iPhone 3G was unusable even before 4 was released, which doesn't bode very well for iOS. On the other hand, Android is very responsive on a $200 Samsung S, which can't be that much faster than the 3G...

iPhone 3G has an ARM11 620 MHz processor (underclocked to 412 MHz). I'm not sure what a Samsung S is (Galaxy S? Nexus S?), but if you are referring to a Galaxy S, the Galaxy S is quite a bit faster.

Re: Nokia Is Said to Be Near Software Partnership With Microsoft

#36

Post by SwellJoe »

philwelch wrote: post #30
SwellJoe wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I'm not sure that OS/2 is the best analogy. That wasn't a hardware company and software company teaming up." I can't make any sense of this statement. IBM was the definitive hardware company at the time. Microsoft was the definitive software company at the time. What kind of companies do you think they were? "The supposed Microsoft Nokia partnership isn't joint development of a phone OS." As far as I can tell, we ha…

IBM was a systems company, not a hardware company. The difference is that a hardware company doesn't, by and large, develop their own software. Apple is another example of a systems company.

"IBM was a systems company, not a hardware company. The difference is that a hardware company doesn't, by and large, develop their own software."

You can't have it both ways. Nokia makes the vast majority of their own software and has for years. They have a huge software development staff, and have acquired a number of major software shops to augment it.

And, while we're on the subject, in the PC market, IBM did not, by and large, develop their own software. They contracted out to Microsoft to make the OS in the beginning, and then teamed up with them to make OS/2. So, technically, I guess you can't compare the two because Nokia makes a lot more of the software on its devices than IBM made on its early PCs. But, that's the opposite of the argument you've made above.

I don't think it really matters, though. I think this is a mistake for Nokia, and I think time will bear that assertion out.

And, of course, if you don't like the IBM and OS/2 comparison, how about SGI and Windows NT? That was a unique relationship between a hardware (and software) company and Microsoft that had disastrous consequences for SGI.

Re: Nokia Is Said to Be Near Software Partnership With Microsoft

#37

Post by PakG1 »

philwelch wrote: post #31
PakG1 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the primary point would be that Wintel created a brand new market that hadn't yet really been developed yet. This time around (if it really happens), they're attacking a market that's pretty well developed. Still growing, but by no means at an infant stage.

The distinction between "a brand new market that hasn't yet really been developed yet" and a market that's "well developed [but] still growing" can only be drawn in retrospect. Wintel was a decade late to personal computers, but it turns out a decade late was early enough.

Fair enough. But I'd also say the key metric to analyze would be market penetration, percentage of total population buying the products. A lot more people have cell phones these days, both percentage-wise and gross numbers-wise, than people had personal computers back in the day.

Re: Nokia Is Said to Be Near Software Partnership With Microsoft

#38

Post by PakG1 »

dlevine wrote: post #4

It's a bit surprising that Nokia wouldn't go for another Linux-based platform (Android), but I guess that anything is better than their current strategy. I guess that WP7 will allow them to provide an alternative to all the Android devices out there, and unlike Android, they could potentially be the premier WP7 vendor if they execute correctly.

I think it's precisely because so many companies are choosing Android that they wouldn't want to go Android. There's very little differentiation in following the herd.

Of course, if you're going to differentiate, you want to be the quarterback chased by all the girls, not the scorned outcast playing alone in the courtyard, with only bullies providing social interaction.

Re: Nokia Is Said to Be Near Software Partnership With Microsoft

#39

Post by philwelch »

SwellJoe wrote: post #36
philwelch wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IBM was a systems company, not a hardware company. The difference is that a hardware company doesn't, by and large, develop their own software. Apple is another example of a systems company.

"IBM was a systems company, not a hardware company. The difference is that a hardware company doesn't, by and large, develop their own software." You can't have it both ways. Nokia makes the vast majority of their own software and has for years. They have a huge software development staff, and have acquired a number of major software shops to augment it. And, while we're on the subject, in the PC market, IBM did not…

Nokia makes the vast majority of their own software and has for years.

Hence the premise, "It looks more likely that Nokia could get out of the OS business altogether". Without that premise; yes, Nokia is obviously IBM. So question that premise rather than the validity of the argument, if that's your intention. I myself think it's a shaky premise, but given that premise, Nokia isn't IBM.

And, while we're on the subject, in the PC market, IBM did not, by and large, develop their own software

IBM had literally decades of experience developing their own software for every other type of computer before PC's even existed. Likewise, Nokia has decades of experience developing embedded software for cellular phones. Has Nokia matched iOS or Android yet? No, and neither had IBM matched the Apple II.

The company-defining question is where one goes from there--IBM adopted DOS as a stopgap but quickly worked to develop OS/2, first with Microsoft and then without them (hence attempting--and failing--to remain a systems company). Nokia has attempted to develop Symbian, but if they drop Symbian and decide to adopt Windows Phone (which, again, was expressly the premise of that comment), they would move in the opposite direction, like Tandy did.

Re: Nokia Is Said to Be Near Software Partnership With Microsoft

#40

Post by r00fus »

philwelch wrote: post #34
electromagnetic wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm with you on that, I expect the probability of 'drunks tied together' falling down to increase following the square-cube law. I have a similar theory that the reason female washrooms always seem to have too few stalls is because their is a square-law going on. Ever notice how when your wife/girlfriend/friend goes to the washroom on their own they take roughly the same time as a guy, but when they go with their fri…

Female washrooms also have queueing inefficiencies compared to male washrooms. Women need a stall no matter what, men only need a stall in some cases and a urinal for other cases. And urinals have much higher throughput.

Not to mention, when push comes to shove, a guy can urinate pretty much anywhere. I remember back in my college days when I'd go to the bar restroom and the stalls were being used, the urinal was in use, a guy was peeing in the trash can and another dude was using the sink...
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