Live data from Hacker News

Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality

economist.com

31–40 of 367 posts

Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality

#31
post #7

This Economist article points out some of the many small academic works that quibble over details with Piketty and Saez. But that's not anything new. The major points of their work, and especially of Piketty's monumental _Capital for the 21st century_ still stand: that capital is a positive feedback loop in a way that labor is not; that mid-20th-century laws that put brakes on this feedback loop have been removed; th…

it seems odd to dismiss papers that challenges Piketty's and Saez's conclusions as nitpicky. in complex systems the devil is most often in the details. and not only that, but the sort of project that Piketty took on has many potential methodological pitfalls. so, small details could actually mean a given premise or conclusion is invalid. how would you suggest someone go about assessing whether a paper is nitpicky vs something that should be taken seriously?

note that i'm not taking a position on the conclusions of Piketty and Saez, just pointing out that re-stating their claims does not say anything about the papers that argue against them and calling such papers nitpicky seems like a particularly weak critique in this instance.

Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality

#32
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a very different takeaway from Piketty's book. Namely, that inflation (primarily hyper inflation) has been the only force to reduce income inequality. For example, Jeff Bezos is much more affected than I am if the government decides to give everyone a $1B. Thus, governments looking to end income inequality shouldn't be afraid of high inflation.

Bezos is basically entirely invested in stocks (Amazon). His exposure to monetary inflation is roughly 0. If the government hands out 1bn to everyone that'll happen at the expense of cash / bond holders. Prices from Amazon services will just adjust accordingly to the inflation spike along with their profit margins.

I would guess most salaried employees have little of their wealth directly in anything but stocks and bonds due to 401k. Also house equity possibly.

Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a very different takeaway from Piketty's book. Namely, that inflation (primarily hyper inflation) has been the only force to reduce income inequality. For example, Jeff Bezos is much more affected than I am if the government decides to give everyone a $1B. Thus, governments looking to end income inequality shouldn't be afraid of high inflation.

Inflation IS a tax on wealth. When done intentionally (by printing money), it’s called seigniorage.

Only if the wealth is held in cash. Equities and real estate are a hedge against inflation.

Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality

#34
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Afaik his finding are disputed. And even if not, why should it even be desirable to encourage labor? If capital is so great, people should seek owning capital, not seek to work more. As they say, savings plans start at 50$/month. It seems rather great that this opportunity exists (assuming it is true). The alternative is that you have to work and work until you die.

"Why doesn't everyone just get rich?"

Because a good chunk of people suck at delayed gratification so are incapable of saving money. Even on an average income it's not unfeasible to retire a millionaire if saving a significant percent (and indeed there are people who do this, small businesspeople and tradespeople, the "millionaires next door").

Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality

#35
post #7

This Economist article points out some of the many small academic works that quibble over details with Piketty and Saez. But that's not anything new. The major points of their work, and especially of Piketty's monumental _Capital for the 21st century_ still stand: that capital is a positive feedback loop in a way that labor is not; that mid-20th-century laws that put brakes on this feedback loop have been removed; th…

> This Economist article points out some of the many small academic works that quibble over details with Piketty and Saez. But that's not anything new

These are not nitpicks. What you measure drastically changes the results. Piketty and Saez presented their own revision to their data in 2018 that shows starkly different results than the 2013 data everyone cites: http://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/PSZ2018QJE.pdf

For example figure 3 shows that when you account for tax transfers, the bottom 50%’s share of income is only a few points lower than in 1960, though significantly lower than the peak of about 25% in 1970. It also shows that, contrary to common assertions, the bottom 50% income has grown consistently since 1960 adjusted for inflation. Figure 1 shows that the labor share of income has been flat since 1940 when you account for benefits. (Put another way, capital’s share of income is flat.)

The data about returns to capital are particularly important. Supporters of wealth taxes and capital taxes tend to point to rising inequality as the justification for such approaches. But if the returns to capital aren’t increasing as a fraction of the economy, that argument gets harder. Of course there may be other arguments in favor of such taxes, but those seem less well developed.

The point the Economist article makes well is that inequality is hard to measure, and the simple definition used by Piketty and Saez’s initial analysis is inadequate. For example, there is a whole school of libertarian thought that, even if you believe the government should be in the business of redistribution, the best approach is to maximize growth through a free, deregulated economy and then tax individual incomes to provide generous welfare benefits. Most of the developed world has moved in that direction over the last 30 years. Under Piketty and Saez’s 2013 model, which excludes tax transfers, you can’t accurately describe inequality in a country that uses such a model.

Moreover, there are additional analyses showing that, when you look at consumption rather than income (which accounts for both tax transfers and falling prices from globalization) inequality is basically unchanged since the 1970s: https://voxeu.org/article/consumption-and-income-inequality-.... That is to say, the bottom 10% get to consume about the same fraction of total production as they did half a century ago. Of course there are downsides to consumption measures too, insofar as the data is sparser for incomes at the top. (The measure above includes money spent on mortgages for mansions, but not private yachts, for example.)

But just because something is easy to measure (pre-tax income) doesn’t mean it’s the right thing to measure!

Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality

#36
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interest rates are set by FED, who can print arbitrary amount of money out of thin air, there is no supply/demand mechanism involved in setting them. Basically every rate change is an experiment testing whatever monetary theory is currently popular among FED board members.

> Interest rates are set by FED, who can print arbitrary amount of money out of thin air One interest rate is set by the Fed, which serves as a benchmark for other market rates. But it's a simple question: if I can borrow money at 3%, why would I borrow your money at 7% so you can earn a return? And if someone wants to lend me money at 3%, why is that "artificial"? > who can print arbitrary amount of money out of thi…

> One interest rate is set by the Fed, which serves as a benchmark for other market rates.

This used to be true, but lately CBs are also buying bonds. That affects their supply/demand balance, which affects their price, which is another way of expressing the interest rate.

Source: spent time trading bonds.

Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality

#37
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> artificially low interest Interest rates are driven by the supply and demand of credit. Supply outstrips demand now. There are two sides to every transaction; low rates are good for borrowers and bad for lenders. What makes you think the lenders are entitled to a greater return on their savings? Do you think we should force people to borrow at higher rates for this purpose? > wealth flowing from working classes and…

> Interest rates are driven by the supply and demand of credit. Supply outstrips demand now. While that's somewhat true, its also largely dictated / controlled / heavily influenced by government. This means the overnight lending rate, U.S. bond rate, etc.

You're both right. The Fed is a lender (to banks only) and carries out what they call "open-market operations" with the goal of enacting policy and not making money. They throw around enough money to skew the market.

Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality

#38
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation IS a tax on wealth. When done intentionally (by printing money), it’s called seigniorage.

Only if the wealth is held in cash. Equities and real estate are a hedge against inflation.

In the US at least they're still still taxed for capital gains, but the capital gains tax doesn't account for inflation. So if there's 2% inflation that causes the value of your stocks to rise by 2%, that is taxed as a capital gain, so in real teams you have less money afterwards. Non-inflation-adjusted capital gains tax is essentially a wealth tax.

Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality

#39
post #7

This Economist article points out some of the many small academic works that quibble over details with Piketty and Saez. But that's not anything new. The major points of their work, and especially of Piketty's monumental _Capital for the 21st century_ still stand: that capital is a positive feedback loop in a way that labor is not; that mid-20th-century laws that put brakes on this feedback loop have been removed; th…

You are asserting that there is broad academic agreement that Piketty's major points still stand, but that is far from true -- in fact they never stood under serious scrutiny at all. Outside of simply describing tautalogies, his major point is that inequality is rising because the rate of return on capital is exceeding the economy's growth rate, from which he makes a logical leap that inequality will increase inexorably without intervention. This point fails to consider that people spend some (and sometimes a lot) of their earnings from capital, which dissipates their wealth back into the economy. Historical data show that wealth does not end up growing faster than income because of the effect of spending the wealth (you have to spend basically none of it to maintain a growth rate that is greater than GDP). A good number of serious academics have raised this and other points. His book is best understood as a popular argument for specific political ends, and since it gives a veneer of academic seriousness to those ends it has been popular.

Re: Economists Are Rethinking the Numbers on Inequality

#40
This is kind of a touchy subject. I feel like a lot of people would balk at the idea of the top 1% not doing better and better, not because they have any extra insight into the topic but because to say this seems like you're defending the ultra-rich (and by extension attacking everyone else). In reality, even if the rich aren't getting even richer at quite the rate we thought, it doesn't mean you really need to have any more sympathy for them, it just means you tweak a few lines of your rhetoric.
Post reply on HN