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Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

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Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#31

Post by daeken »

BoppreH wrote: post #19

Why the hell didn't he hire people to find tickets for him? If you are worried about people doing this without you, just make an app to calculate the values. Make the calculations server side, and only after checking if the phone is registered. Just don't hire too many people, or the clerks may start to get suspicious.

Why not bring the clerks into it? The corner-store I go to near-daily knows me well, and they sell lots of lottery tickets. It'd be trivial for me to go in there and say "listen, I'll give you an X% cut in exchange for your silence and first pick of the tickets."

However, if they're knowingly selling losers, could that be construed as fraud? Then again, the lottery does that already...

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#32

Post by ergo98 »

golgo13 wrote: post #14

In Canada, are you able to say, "I don't want this one" until you get a potential winner? Here in Texas, you cannot pick your ticket. When you buy a ticket, you get whatever the cashier gives you or whatever the machine spits out. Or is the guy simply not wasting time scratching off the losers? I still don't see how this could be profitable since most games have 1:5 odds, including break even prizes.

For this sort of ticket the buyer selects from a display of, I would say, several dozen.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#33

Post by ergo98 »

rottyguy wrote: post #10

Even though he knew the formula, at least where I buy lottery tickets, the person behind the counter gives you the ticket. Assuming there are many more losers then winners, without being able to select the tickets yourself, it would seem as though it'd be a losing proposition. Now, if you were the store owner and had access to the tickets yourself, that would be a different story.

This is how those sorts of tickets are sold here-

http://www.northumberlandtoday.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?archi...

They slide out the little display holding the type you're interested in and you sit and mull over the aura of winnitude of each of them. There would be little tolerance for someone looking at each individual card for a minute, though.

The Ontario lottery corporation has come down hard on retailers because, of course, they're the ones who generally ply these scams.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#34

Post by eftpotrm »

lancefisher wrote: post #23
lkozma wrote: post #11

I find it strange that they don't use some true random source in generating the tickets. I'm also surprised the article finds this obvious. "Of course, it would be really nice if the computer could just spit out random digits. But that’s not possible, since the lottery corporation needs to control the number of winning tickets" Surely the lottery could quantify uncertainties and set up a system where the probability…

There's a big difference between one $10 million winner and two $10 million winners. Best not to leave that to chance.

But that's a solvable problem.

OK, database geek hat on here. It's not too hard to pregenerate a set of every possible ticket combination, just lots of cross joining of numbers tables and a bit of coding of the play rules. Add in the payout rules and you can produce a total set of all possible cards along with the payout for each given card.

From this set, we can select exactly the number and balance of paying and non-paying cards we want, chosen pseudorandomly from the set of possible cards. Output that set and sort that pseudorandomly, then send to the printers. You've got a (pseudo) random selection of cards with an absolutely controlled payout pattern.

The downside, and what seems to be the critical problem for the suppliers, is that I suspect you'd have less 'near miss' cards this way to entice players. But it's absolutely possible to ensure that you have a defined payout pattern while also giving random ticket distribution.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#36

Post by eftpotrm »

alokt_ wrote: post #17
golgo13 wrote: post #14

In Canada, are you able to say, "I don't want this one" until you get a potential winner? Here in Texas, you cannot pick your ticket. When you buy a ticket, you get whatever the cashier gives you or whatever the machine spits out. Or is the guy simply not wasting time scratching off the losers? I still don't see how this could be profitable since most games have 1:5 odds, including break even prizes.

yes, but if you work at/own a gas station, you can pretty much pick the winners and sell the losing tickets.

Not in the UK lottery; all the tickets get dispensed from clear containers and have to be the next one on the roll (which comes out at the back so you can't see what the next one will be). They've tried educating their customers* about not buying tickets that aren't on the roll.

This to me seemed to be the core of the problem; not that the cards were crackable, but that it was possible for a user to select what card to purchase rather than just what game to play. Remove that and the problem largely goes away through simple education about valid play procedures as I suggested.

(* I say educated, but there's the infamous 'Winter temperatures' scratchcard which rather undermines that concept - http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1022757_c...)

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#37

Post by andyv »

nagrom wrote: post #3

My favourite line in the whole article was about the way he alerted the lottery board: "The package was sent at 10 am. Two hours later, he received a call from Zufelt. Srivastava had correctly predicted 19 out of the 20 tickets. The next day, the tic-tac-toe game was pulled from stores." I know that we're supposed to be fascinated by the statistical work done cracking the code, but my real sympathy is for the head of…

The last thing the lottery people want is a lot of attention to the flaws in their games. Threatening the whistleblower would cause that.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#38

Post by dhyasama »

eftpotrm wrote: post #36
alokt_ wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes, but if you work at/own a gas station, you can pretty much pick the winners and sell the losing tickets.

Not in the UK lottery; all the tickets get dispensed from clear containers and have to be the next one on the roll (which comes out at the back so you can't see what the next one will be). They've tried educating their customers* about not buying tickets that aren't on the roll. This to me seemed to be the core of the problem; not that the cards were crackable, but that it was possible for a user to select what card…

Exactly. Force players to buy the next ticket on the roll (without seeing it) and don't allow unused tickets to be returned. Problem solved.

I grew up in Maine and tickets are dispensed this way. Not sure about returning tickets, but knowing Mainers, I'd be surprised if they would take them back. It doesn't pass the straight-face test.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#39

Post by coin »

Xk wrote: post #2

In some states, the lottery accounts for more than 5 percent of education funding. Am I the only one who finds this ironic? Edit: Except, of course, for those who learn to predict 19 of 20 tickets correctly.

In many cases, that's how the state justifies the lottery.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#40

Post by michaelbuckbee »

eftpotrm wrote: post #34
lancefisher wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a big difference between one $10 million winner and two $10 million winners. Best not to leave that to chance.

But that's a solvable problem. OK, database geek hat on here. It's not too hard to pregenerate a set of every possible ticket combination, just lots of cross joining of numbers tables and a bit of coding of the play rules. Add in the payout rules and you can produce a total set of all possible cards along with the payout for each given card. From this set, we can select exactly the number and balance of paying and no…

I've heard of this technique used for games of chance in vegas where they need to tightly control the outcomes both so they don't lose money but also to satisfy the reporting requirements for the regulatory commissions.
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