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This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

economist.com

31–40 of 135 posts

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#31
Though I know the Nobel is focused on theoretical contribution, I found this discussion interesting: https://andrewbatson.com/2019/10/25/who-deserves-the-nobel-f...

The editorial Batson is reacting to (by Yao Yang) makes the point that the largest economic development project that lifted the vast majority of people out of poverty over the past 20 years was orchestrated by China, and the RCTs/small scale interventions that Duflo et. al. won the Nobel for had no role or relevance there. He focuses more on the policies guided by the "classic" development economists like Solow which emphasize domestic savings and investment.

Batson's post delves into who in China actually was responsible for the economic policy changes that created that development.

Personally, I welcome the the addition of RCTs to the economic research toolkit. For too long, economics has wrapped itself up in a mathematically complex knot that bears no resemblance to the real world. Behavioral economics has started to crack that by applying common sense, though too often they have dramatically overextrapolated their hard-to-replicate results.

Hopefully economists can see RCT as a tool which can be used where appropriate, rather than an entirely new paradigm that much be applied to everything (as they did with highly mathematical economics).

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#32
post #30
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More accurate to say that there are five "original" ones and then one added in later. It seems that at this point it has equal standing, in that the Nobel foundation admins it, and it is presented in the same ceremony.

The Wealth of Nations was published in 1776, 57 years before Alfred Nobel was born. He was aware of the field of economics and didn't think it was worthy of a prize. Fields such as mathematics and philosophy were also around in Nobel's time and he didn't think they were worthy of a prize either. The difference is those fields aren't associated with an organization that literally prints money to buy their way in.

> He was aware of the field of economics and didn't think it was worthy of a prize.

I doubt you have evidence of this, beyond the simple fact that he didn't personally establish a sixth prize. If such evidence existed, I think it's unlikely that the Nobel Foundation would've agreed to administer the prize in the first place.

That said, at this point, I'm not sure what the difference would be anyway. The Nobel prizes (including the memorial one) have become a globally admired celebration of human achievement, the personal beliefs and shortcomings of the 19th century arms dealer who established the prizes notwithstanding.

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#33

There is no Nobel prize for economists, specifically anyway. There is a Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, but that was created in 1968 by Sweden's central bank, and has nothing to do with Alfred Nobel other than being from Sweden and "borrowing" his name. I believe the Nobel foundation now manages that award, but there are still only 5 "real" Noble prizes.

Nobel price in economics has consistently higher quality and more prestige than literary or the peace prices.

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#34

Esther Duflo is the most obviously deserving Nobel Prize in Economics pick in decades. Major substantive contributions to development economics coupled with being absolutely the vanguard of the credibility revolution. The article seems to motivate criticism of RCTs in only the barest manner: "what of external validity?" No shit, Sherlock, which is why the credibility revolution also argues for frequent and cross-cont…

Study with Esther now!

https://www.edx.org/bio/esther-duflo

Amazing I can type that. The net ain't all bad.

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#35

Totally bonkers: economists using science to approach "social science" issues. Social sciences should be ashamed that this is not the norm, we should all be startled and surprised that this is a new thing and evidently people have just been using a system of high-fives and good wishes to solve the world's social problems.

It speaks horribly of Hacker News readers that xyxxy2020's ignorant nonsense has been repeatedly upvoted.

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#36
post #17
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Before we pile on the social sciences, maybe someone familiar with them can tell us why RCTs are so hard to do. There are likely other issues involved that make RCTs very difficult -- I'm guessing some ethical issues at least. I doubt social scientists and economists are just a bunch of idiots or charlatans. Likewise, the recent breakthrough wouldn't be such a breakthrough if it had been easier. I don't have an Econo…

You are exactly correct. RCTs are hard, not just for ethical reasons but also logistical ones. It's hard to get the money and authority to conduct an experiment in the first place, and it's often impossible to create a true control group. "Hard" scientists like to pat themselves on the back for rigor, but they get that because they're studying comparatively simple things. Studying the lives of people is hard, but it'…

> It's a bit like medicine: we're not going to stop treating people just because we don't understand the mechanism of action and can't guarantee that it will work.

Yet medicine actually focuses on scientific measurement of effects. They don’t just throw their hands up and go, “experiments that affect people’s lives are too hard.”

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#37
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there nothing between RCTs and "high-fives" to estimate causal effects? Economists seem to run awfully long journal articles if they all boil down to high fives.

Piketty's Capital in the 21st century would be an example of something in between. His main hypothesis is that unless there is some intervention wealth accumulates until almost all of it is concentrated among just a few. He uses lots and lots of statistics to support his theory. He tells us that it happens but is unable to tell us exactly why.

Is that really any better though. Unless those statistics are shown to have a predictive effect on money flow, he’s just publishing something to fit a model and metaphorical high fives are thrown around by people that already agree with the hypothesis.

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#38

Totally bonkers: economists using science to approach "social science" issues. Social sciences should be ashamed that this is not the norm, we should all be startled and surprised that this is a new thing and evidently people have just been using a system of high-fives and good wishes to solve the world's social problems.

It speaks horribly of Hacker News readers that xyxxy2020's ignorant nonsense has been repeatedly upvoted.

TBH I've found that nonsense gets upvoted quite regularly here.

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#39

Though I know the Nobel is focused on theoretical contribution, I found this discussion interesting: https://andrewbatson.com/2019/10/25/who-deserves-the-nobel-f... The editorial Batson is reacting to (by Yao Yang) makes the point that the largest economic development project that lifted the vast majority of people out of poverty over the past 20 years was orchestrated by China, and the RCTs/small scale interventions…

RCT? Perhaps it would be helpful to explain what that is.

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#40

Though I know the Nobel is focused on theoretical contribution, I found this discussion interesting: https://andrewbatson.com/2019/10/25/who-deserves-the-nobel-f... The editorial Batson is reacting to (by Yao Yang) makes the point that the largest economic development project that lifted the vast majority of people out of poverty over the past 20 years was orchestrated by China, and the RCTs/small scale interventions…

RCT? Perhaps it would be helpful to explain what that is.

Randomized controlled trial.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randomized_controlled_trial

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