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The End of the Computer Age

manhattan-institute.org

31–40 of 89 posts

Re: The End of the Computer Age

#33

"And so, if we were to rightsize the scaling for our intellectual life, you should describe Harvard, not as one of the thousands of great universities, you should describe it as a Studio 54 nightclub" is really all you need to take away from this. Not for what it says, but for the desperate attempt of those words to make any real sense. Although don't miss out on gems like: "But in practice, the main AI applications…

I'm not sure what's unclear about what he's saying. a) Harvard is a pure signaling mechanism that doesn't provide education as much as exclusionary credentials. b) AI/Big data is a way to solve the economic calculation problem that was once seen as one of the main theoretical hurdles against communism. That a country like China favors AI and punishes crypto tells you something (that it's a communist dictatorship). It…

Well, but China doesn't use AI to centrally plan the details of its economy. Corporations, prices, and competition are undisputed features of the economy there. Whether you want to call it communist or not, the computational problem is still as intractable as ever. There's a difference between monitoring and regulating society with computers and solving the classical economic calculation problem.

And Harvard is a way for elites to network, but that's not merely arbitrary signalling - it depends on how those elites are selected.

Re: The End of the Computer Age

#34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure what's unclear about what he's saying. a) Harvard is a pure signaling mechanism that doesn't provide education as much as exclusionary credentials. b) AI/Big data is a way to solve the economic calculation problem that was once seen as one of the main theoretical hurdles against communism. That a country like China favors AI and punishes crypto tells you something (that it's a communist dictatorship). It…

I also liked the fact that he points out he'd like to see innovation not just "in some iPhone app" but more broadly in different fields. I think this is a good point, there isn't enough going on in other areas, like he said people ride the 100 year old subway distracted by their iPhones not realizing the world around them is unchanging mostly. It's true in some ways, who will build or even demand the better faster su…

Yup. To be fair, that's a point he's been making for ~10 years about the world of atoms and world of bits dichotomy.

I think it's also, in part, subtly caused by our narrow understanding of the word "technology" to be "software made in Silicon Valley" as opposed to a broader "tool that serves a human purpose."

If we broadened that understanding, we could see engineers applying their skills to problems that would be just as lucrative, but could be more legitimately called "innovative" than working on the umpteenth marginal "tech" app.

Re: The End of the Computer Age

#35
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ever been to Connecticut? I-84 is still constantly in rough condition, even as property and income taxes climb.

As a Korean who visited LA this summer, I was shocked to see how unmaintained the roads were, especially the highways. (There were cracks and debris all over the place)

I remember thinking the same back in 2005, which was the first time I'd driven in the US. Cracks and potholes all over the place. At the time I'd assumed it was because California was basically bankrupt (maybe it still is), but slightly shocking that it's still the case.

I suddenly felt like I understood why American cars have such soft suspension. The roads were notably worse than in the UK, and by a wide margin: no way I'd want to drive a car with a sportier setup there.

What's depressing is that since 2010 there's been a progressive degradation in the state of our roads. In Cambridgeshire the roads are now in a terrible state: cracks, fissures, potholes, road markings barely visible.

You can blame public spending cuts for this, and no doubt there's truth in that statement, but there are plenty of road infrastructure projects happening. For example: the (admittedly decades overdue) A14 upgrade, recently completed Ely southern bypass, various smart motorway projects (M1 and M4 spring immediately to mind, as well as recently completed work on M3).

This is all well and good, but I would far rather see some of this money diverted to the basics of a safe road network: i.e., ensuring the roads we already have are in good condition. I would particularly like to see funds being used for smart motorways, for which serious safety concerns have emerged, diverted in this way.

Re: The End of the Computer Age

#36
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the market is what silently concluded that the physical world has evolved enough; software isn't more important, just more profitable. And because the United States is allergic to public spending, that's all that matters.

NYC seems to be just fine at redeveloping. So the problem is regional (though very widespread).

It could really be so much better. There are a lot of other cities which are developing faster (mainly outside the US).

Re: The End of the Computer Age

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure what's unclear about what he's saying. a) Harvard is a pure signaling mechanism that doesn't provide education as much as exclusionary credentials. b) AI/Big data is a way to solve the economic calculation problem that was once seen as one of the main theoretical hurdles against communism. That a country like China favors AI and punishes crypto tells you something (that it's a communist dictatorship). It…

Well, but China doesn't use AI to centrally plan the details of its economy. Corporations, prices, and competition are undisputed features of the economy there. Whether you want to call it communist or not, the computational problem is still as intractable as ever. There's a difference between monitoring and regulating society with computers and solving the classical economic calculation problem. And Harvard is a way…

Sure. Thiel is proposing a model. All models are wrong, some are useful, and so on. His models happen to be interesting to people who like to think in more contrarian ways. That doesn't make them right, and we can debate their merit, of course. But it hardly makes them impossible to understand.

That China hasn't solved the economic calculation problem yet is plain to see, and I don't think that's quite what Thiel is saying. He's talking about the principles and the mindset behind the support for AI, as well as its ramifications in terms of the type of society it can produce asymptotically.

No one said Harvard's signalling was arbitrary. It's a very clear signal. Thiel's point is that that signal has nothing to do with "higher education".

Re: The End of the Computer Age

#38
Wait - he helped elect a cryptofascist that plunders the public coffers for personal gain, and then he's got the chutzpah to complain about the state of public infrastructure?

At the Manhattan Institute? The place that loudly complains that tax payer financed efforts are really just exploitation?

Re: The End of the Computer Age

#39
post #26

"And so, if we were to rightsize the scaling for our intellectual life, you should describe Harvard, not as one of the thousands of great universities, you should describe it as a Studio 54 nightclub" is really all you need to take away from this. Not for what it says, but for the desperate attempt of those words to make any real sense. Although don't miss out on gems like: "But in practice, the main AI applications…

> And then, it is literally communist because China loves AI; it hates crypto. And so that, I think, tells you something. China also loves cheap r/c cars, does that make them communist?

"Crypto"? The biggest Bitcoin miners are in China. That's because mining Bitcoin is "exporting", and a legit way to get yuan into dollars or euros. Buy mining hardware with yuan, mine, sell Bitcoin outside China. Not only is it legal, because it's exporting, it's encouraged and some breaks for creating an export business are available.

Re: The End of the Computer Age

#40
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ever been to Connecticut? I-84 is still constantly in rough condition, even as property and income taxes climb.

As a Korean who visited LA this summer, I was shocked to see how unmaintained the roads were, especially the highways. (There were cracks and debris all over the place)

Interestingly it might just have to do with the age of the roads. When I was living in Baltimore in the late 80s my fellow Californians complained how bad the roads were in Maryland compared to LA. Now 30 years later the roads in California are bad too. IIUC much of Korea's roads are new-ish so it's possible in 30 years they'll be in the same state. .... or not of course. Maybe Korea is just better at maintaining roads.
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