Either really good math or really good insider trading.
He's a MIT/Berkley Math professor.
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Either really good math or really good insider trading.
He's a MIT/Berkley Math professor.
A great book about RenTec and Jim Simons came out recently: The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution. Everyone in the industry worships Simons and RenTec as practically god-like. What they've managed to do shouldn't really be possible and is out of this world. According to Wikipedia over a 20 year period between 1994 and 2014, RenTec realized an 71.9% annualized return in their inte…
The "it's a scam" theory that I heard had nothing to do with it being a Ponzi scheme, instead it was about laundering high-tax income into low-tax capital gains while maintaining a plausibly deniable investment cover story. It didn't have to beat the market, it just had to beat regulators.
I have nowhere near enough domain competence to comment on the plausibility of that scenario, other than to say that I suspect if it were that easy everyone would be doing it, so on those grounds alone I suspect the conspiracy theory I heard was incorrect. Someone more invested in the idea that it's a conspiracy would likely just argue that it isn't easy to be good at this or that there are economies of scale, so only one dominant player. Shrug.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The hedge fund featured in Billions is entirely unlike typical quant trading firms in culture and operation, let alone RenTech.
It seemed that all hedge funds in Billions were trading in insider information. It does seem prevalent, but I am not personally in the industry at all: https://medium.com/@malwarwick_98471/insider-trading-in-the-... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_A._Cohen
In real life you can't run a fund by finding insiders willing to commit crimes routinely. But you often can get the same information by other means by collecting intelligence. Observing traffic, the flow of materials, following people and finding who meets who.
A great book about RenTec and Jim Simons came out recently: The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution. Everyone in the industry worships Simons and RenTec as practically god-like. What they've managed to do shouldn't really be possible and is out of this world. According to Wikipedia over a 20 year period between 1994 and 2014, RenTec realized an 71.9% annualized return in their inte…
But how do you know these return numbers? Esp since as you say the fund has no outside investors? Who has audited these numbers and what is your source specifically? I‘m aware of Rentec for many years and also awed by the numbers but I‘ve always wondered where do people actually get them?
In particular: RenTech likes to keep a handle on this publicity for the purposes of courting extremely good talent from academia and industry. That's the only reason the Medallion returns are ever intentionally publicized. Anyone investing in RenTech's other funds knows full well they're not getting the alpha powering Medallion's returns.
Simons would probably have preferred to stay entirely under the radar, but the cat's out of the bag already and has been for decades. The most successful hedge funds (like the Princeton Alpha offshoots) don't court publicity because they don't need to pool risk with outside investors. They're not even hedge funds in the common sense of the term; they're proprietary trading firms run on employee and partner capital. Medallion can be thought of a prop shop within a hedge fund in that way.
A great book about RenTec and Jim Simons came out recently: The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution. Everyone in the industry worships Simons and RenTec as practically god-like. What they've managed to do shouldn't really be possible and is out of this world. According to Wikipedia over a 20 year period between 1994 and 2014, RenTec realized an 71.9% annualized return in their inte…
A podcast interview with the author:
* https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/11/talk-your-book-greg...
* https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/11/non-intuitive-lesso...
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/12/18/jim-simons-the...
And this interesting theme:
> Foundations are not taxed, so much of the money that supports them is money that otherwise would have gone to the government. Scientific mega-donors answer to no one but themselves. Private institutes tend to have boards chosen by their founders, and are designed to further the founders’ wishes, even beyond their deaths. Rob Reich, a professor of political science at Stanford University and an expert on philanthropy, told me, “Private foundations are a plutocratic exercise of power that’s unaccountable, nontransparent, donor-directed, and generously tax-subsidized. This seems like a very peculiar institutional and organizational form to champion in a democratic society.”
A great book about RenTec and Jim Simons came out recently: The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution. Everyone in the industry worships Simons and RenTec as practically god-like. What they've managed to do shouldn't really be possible and is out of this world. According to Wikipedia over a 20 year period between 1994 and 2014, RenTec realized an 71.9% annualized return in their inte…
> here's no outside investors in the Medallion fund anymore, so if it is a scam, they would only be scamming their own employees The "it's a scam" theory that I heard had nothing to do with it being a Ponzi scheme, instead it was about laundering high-tax income into low-tax capital gains while maintaining a plausibly deniable investment cover story. It didn't have to beat the market, it just had to beat regulators.…
There are public swap-based ETFs (in Canada) formulated around this concept:
Do they still outperform? I can imagine 10 years ago they were ahead of everyone but now quant investing is everywhere I would be surprised if they have a big edge.
Their returns have been as good or better in the last 10 years even after doubling the fund size
On a completely unrelated note, if I were interested in creating a fund that appeared to have market beating returns for decades and I wasn't concerned about the legal consequences, here's one way I might do it:
I would create fund A and B and seed them with some initial capital. For fund A, I would create a machine learning model that took in lots of opaque parameters and hire a team of very smart mathematicians and computer scientists to optimize this model to perform profitable trades. In order to easily generate alpha, I would subtlety feed in some parameters that were correlated to the future market moving actions of fund B. Since I also run fund B, I uniquely have this information.
I would use the performance of fund A to woo outside investors into investing their money into fund B. In order to prevent fund A from overtaking fund B in asset value and thus diminishing the value of the subtle signals, I would close the fund to the public when it got sufficiently large and periodically distribute its assets to its investors.
In order to avoid any of my employees from eventually figuring out what's going on and reporting me, I'd incentivize them to avoid looking too closely by requiring that they invest a large part of their income into the fund with a long vesting date. I'd also require them to sign a long term non-compete so that they cannot work anywhere else in the financial industry if they leave.
A great book about RenTec and Jim Simons came out recently: The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution. Everyone in the industry worships Simons and RenTec as practically god-like. What they've managed to do shouldn't really be possible and is out of this world. According to Wikipedia over a 20 year period between 1994 and 2014, RenTec realized an 71.9% annualized return in their inte…