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Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

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31–40 of 134 posts

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#31

I bought some gold today. Unrelated to this but I have recently decided to have 10% of my portfolio in gold as a safe guard.

Gold/Silver also tanked with the 2008 recession though.

It didn't really, it sold off initially because it was "up", people sold winners in order to cover losses and gold was one of those winners. It didn't peak until 2011 at around $1900 and had risen from it's lowers in the early 2000's.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#32

I bought some gold today. Unrelated to this but I have recently decided to have 10% of my portfolio in gold as a safe guard.

Gold/Silver also tanked with the 2008 recession though.

If you look at the graphs, gold stayed kind of flat during the heights of last 2 recessions but it had a rally 1-2 year after last 2 recessions.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#33

I bought some gold today. Unrelated to this but I have recently decided to have 10% of my portfolio in gold as a safe guard.

Gold/Silver also tanked with the 2008 recession though.

My bet is on 10k gold after next recession. I guess I’m a gold bug. But it’s still only 10% of my portfolio so I’m well diversified imho

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#34
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a reason why Japan shouldn't monetize the debt? The usual explanation is that it would cause inflation, but I'm not sure how that works for government debt that trades near 0% anyway. It's a tradeable store of value that you can trade 1:1 for money, so might as well be money?

Bernanke was pitching them this idea. He suggested the Japanses government issues zero-coupon perpetual bonds and the BoJ buys them. Ha, ha, "bonds". As crazy as this sounds I think it makes sense - just admit honestly that the situation is fucked up, monetize, generate stagflation and eventual normalization.

It seems like I'm missing something basic. I would like to understand when the inflation happens and where it comes from. More money chasing fewer goods, sure, but if we already have too much of a money-equivalent, why aren't bondholders chasing goods with it already? And, clearly there isn't any inflation.

It seems like demand should have increased when the government sold the bonds and spent the money.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#35
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As always, depends on your appetite for risk and your timeframe for using the money. Personally, I don't see much upside left in equities for next year or two, but I'm a perma-bear and have been wrong many times before :D Plus there's not a lot of easy places to stuff money at the moment, hence big investors sitting on piles of cash.

I have only been investing for 2 years I am currently 32. So I think most investors wouldn't mind me keeping my stocks but I saw my mother and father loose hundreds of thousands of dollars back in 09 and I am not about to bite that bullet.

Take advice from someone who has been investing for the past 10 years and has made ridiculous money while these perma-bears are still poor.

You can’t time the market. Keep buying stocks like they will continue to go up, at the end of the day, if the market crashes and values tank, it’s no big deal. Keep holding your stocks, they will recover, in fact buy while everything is super cheap. If you would have bought back in 09-10 when everything was cheap you would have made mad money like me.

If you are hoarding cash right now, do so with the intent to buy in the next major crash, whenever that is.

Just keep investing, entering at age 30 you are late to the game and need to make up for lost time.

You don’t “lose” until you sell, even if your parents lost value in 09 they would have recovered it all and more after a few years.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold/Silver also tanked with the 2008 recession though.

My bet is on 10k gold after next recession. I guess I’m a gold bug. But it’s still only 10% of my portfolio so I’m well diversified imho

Why gold and not 22 LR or 556 NATO?

At least for me, there's not a huge gap between "all the other investments crater to the point that my 10% in gold is useful" and "oh boy looks like things are collapsing now", if that makes any sense.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#37
post #14
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if the USD becomes weak, who out there could be in a position to become stronger? I don’t see any candidate. Euro growth is weak. CN bookkeeping’s suspect...

Bitcoin.

Beat me to it.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#38
post #5
post #2

Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. People have this bias to remember most recent event, but it's rarely the same thing twice in a row: https://imgur.com/a/0dT7iHK Corporate debt may be: https://imgur.com/a/b54hMSg And frankly with the amount of outstanding US govt debt and underfunded pension & healthcare liabilities the USD may either get dethroned and devalued or sent into the negative inte…

So if the USD becomes weak, who out there could be in a position to become stronger? I don’t see any candidate. Euro growth is weak. CN bookkeeping’s suspect...

> CN bookkeeping’s suspect...

IMO Americans are biased to overweight this. It doesn't matter as long as China can keep up appearances better than other countries for long enough. Investors will happily invest in a bubble believing that they are smart enough to get out before everyone else if things go south.

Bad bookkeeping doesn't keep the NBA and Activision from kowtowing to China, I don't see why it would keep people from investing there either.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#39
I'm a founder and have been getting spammed hard-core lately for small business loans. There are many companies offering 5-6 digit business loans and revolving lines of credit to basically anyone who can fog glass, and there are salespeople and spammers pushing them. I'd say I average 2-3 e-mails or cold calls per day. Feels like they're trying to stuff loans down my throat.

I've spoken to other founders and small business owners and they say similar. I've also heard anyone who can fog glass can get a car loan.

It reminds me a lot of how people were being basically nagged and cajoled into taking out huge mortgages in the early 2000s. There seems to be a lot of demand again for debt mystery meat to make debt sausages.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My bet is on 10k gold after next recession. I guess I’m a gold bug. But it’s still only 10% of my portfolio so I’m well diversified imho

Why gold and not 22 LR or 556 NATO? At least for me, there's not a huge gap between "all the other investments crater to the point that my 10% in gold is useful" and "oh boy looks like things are collapsing now", if that makes any sense.

It’s a very risky bet for sure. But there is a very small possibility central banks will go back to gold standard to instil confidence during a Great Recession when markets fall by 50+% in a very short time.
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