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The Limits of Science

nationalaffairs.com

31–40 of 60 posts

Re: The Limits of Science

#31
post #2

Science is all about gathering data. Theorise all you like; but if the theory can't be tied back to data at some point in time then it is at best maths or philosophy. Experiments and dispassionate language are about gathering clear data and representing it accurately. Claiming that science is all about "clarity and economy" is ironically unscientific - if nature is unclear and uneconomical then good science has to re…

Science isn't all about data, just like how apple pie isn't all about apples. They are essential ingredients, but there are other ingredients that are no less essential.

W.r.t. some branches of science (medical), I'd say data isn't the biggest ingredient lacking. Most of it is correlational, which is an easy way to use data; you're just looking for correlations and that's about it. It however doesn't provide a lot of insight into fundamentals: it doesn't answer 'how?'. It's modelling that is often lacking: how does this data, this correlation support or disprove certain theories, in order to advance our understanding as a whole rather than being able to say 'medicine X provides Y% improvement in property Z.

In my view, particle physics is a branch of science doing this very well: data is never used without context, correlations never made without some sort of theoretical framework.

Re: The Limits of Science

#32
post #30

This is the first time I see temperature defined as "an emergent property of molecular motion". I agree that this definition is vague, but I've always seen the temperature of an object defined as the medium kinetic energy of the particles that form that object, and I don't see this definition as a vague one at all. Now we should see if and how this medium kinetic energy can affect a person's health, but this is a dif…

Well I think it’s vague because it’s not accurately representing what is going on. Is that average kinetic energy even distributed throughout the system or can it be isolated to specific moving points of the system? Ie some particles in the north most part of the system have this energy and are moving around the system. Or even only the particles in the north have the energy.

Feynman said it best that with each question you keep going back and back and back trying to exemplify through allusion?

Words will always fail to accurately describe the totality of the system and even worse the math formulas don’t do any better especially when considering statistics.

The average grades in my class is 80 but that doesn’t mean Ryan sitting in the front row got a 100 and Andrew in the middle row got a 62. Maybe everyone did get an 80, so then how can I describe not only in words but in function the distinction between these two environments; ie the 100&62 and the all 80s class?

Re: The Limits of Science

#33

I was really hoping this would be about "Philosophy of Science"[0] For example in "The Problem of Induction" you can see a bajillion sunrises but can't infer that there will be another. Likewise you can conduct a bajillion controlled experiments and can't really tell if the result will generalize. Worse yet is that the more conditions you control, the less likely it's to generalize. Infamously, clinical trials wanted…

> For example in "The Problem of Induction" you can see a bajillion sunrises but can't infer that there will be another.

Which is why scientists, like everyone else, uses statistical reasoning.

> In general, if you control for everything, you can't say anything about the real world outside of those precise lab controlled conditions.

This is one of those statements which is only true if you ignore all the times it's false. It's like Zeno's Paradox: If this really troubles you, it's a sign your model's incomplete, not that there's something irreconcilably wrong with the universe. Some of what you're getting at can be fixed with better experimental design, but the rest can only be fixed by, as I said, statistical reasoning, which is universally used in practice.

It's possible to be somewhat uncertain. Some people don't get that, or refuse to acknowledge it so they can sow FUD.

Re: The Limits of Science

#34
post #30

This is the first time I see temperature defined as "an emergent property of molecular motion". I agree that this definition is vague, but I've always seen the temperature of an object defined as the medium kinetic energy of the particles that form that object, and I don't see this definition as a vague one at all. Now we should see if and how this medium kinetic energy can affect a person's health, but this is a dif…

[deleted]

Re: The Limits of Science

#35
post #33

I was really hoping this would be about "Philosophy of Science"[0] For example in "The Problem of Induction" you can see a bajillion sunrises but can't infer that there will be another. Likewise you can conduct a bajillion controlled experiments and can't really tell if the result will generalize. Worse yet is that the more conditions you control, the less likely it's to generalize. Infamously, clinical trials wanted…

> For example in "The Problem of Induction" you can see a bajillion sunrises but can't infer that there will be another. Which is why scientists, like everyone else, uses statistical reasoning. > In general, if you control for everything, you can't say anything about the real world outside of those precise lab controlled conditions. This is one of those statements which is only true if you ignore all the times it's f…

Another way to express that is degrees of confidence.

Nature is the authority, and we have understanding that is incomplete.

Re: The Limits of Science

#36
post #30

This is the first time I see temperature defined as "an emergent property of molecular motion". I agree that this definition is vague, but I've always seen the temperature of an object defined as the medium kinetic energy of the particles that form that object, and I don't see this definition as a vague one at all. Now we should see if and how this medium kinetic energy can affect a person's health, but this is a dif…

Well I think it’s vague because it’s not accurately representing what is going on. Is that average kinetic energy even distributed throughout the system or can it be isolated to specific moving points of the system? Ie some particles in the north most part of the system have this energy and are moving around the system. Or even only the particles in the north have the energy. Feynman said it best that with each quest…

I agree with GTP, the author's definition is vague. As GTP alludes to, temperature is defined perfectly clearly in statistical mechanics, through the sensitivity of the entropy to changes in the internal energy of a system (though there are several, equivalent ways to express it). The author really is incorrect to claim temperature is not a clearly understood concept

Re: The Limits of Science

#37
I think the word the author is looking for is "scientism", per wikipedia:

> Scientism is the promotion of science as the best or only objective means by which society should determine normative and epistemological values. The term scientism is generally used critically, implying a cosmetic application of science in unwarranted situations considered not amenable to application of the scientific method or similar scientific standards.

The whole "true story of a middle-schooler whose mother wanted to arrange for her son to get more time to take his math tests" has a big problem in it as well. There's a real discussion to be had about disability labeling and diagnosis, but that's not how this is framed - it's framed as the mother wanting a benefit for her son that others would not have, the son not actually having a disability, and the scheme to invent one for him failing because she refused to role-play it.

A lot of people can tell the opposite story; they knew something was different about them in ways that were disadvantageous, but other people kept attributing it to a moral defect until they got a diagnosis. (This comes up a lot in conversations about ADHD and to a lesser extent autism/aspergers.)

Re: The Limits of Science

#38

There are three things that bother me: 1. Using "true story," then telling a very general story without any citation. That he did it twice was worrying. 2. People like the writer who treat our current understanding of science as if it were a religious text that is complete. Science is an ongoing process of discovery and experimentation to try to further our understanding of the world. The fact that it's wrong is kind…

This is kind of an inappropriately intensely personal level of scrutiny to apply to a newspaper opinion piece, isn't it?

Re: The Limits of Science

#39
post #19

The core argument seems to be that, since scientific analysis isn't a perfect tool, we ought to hedge our bets by also acting based on emotional reasoning. > The time has come to pause the second phase of the scientific revolution — to recover a more humble and skeptical approach to what the scientific method can achieve, to unite the emotional, spiritual, and intellectual dimensions of life, and to find our way back…

The number of red flags when people mention "spiritual" in any given argument is about as bad as someone talking about the Earth being flat or vaccines causing autism.

I agree, but my problem is the word, not the idea. The word is loaded, like 'mystical', or other words. I'll still use those words when speaking to the right audience, because I know they won't misinterpret me. That's why I can safely say "That live music show last night was a religious experience", for example.

The point is, we're not rational beings, at least not exclusively. We're emotional beings, and even if, ultimately, emotions are accounted for by physical factors, there needs to be a way to reconcile our rational side (which includes science) with our emotional one. This include realizing that unbiased, fully-rational science is just impossible. Our biases, as part of our phenotype, are there because whatever caused them to emerge either helped enough ancestors survive, or at least did not get them killed before reproducing, so they're always going to be there.

I'm sorry I'm ranting and again, I get what you're saying. I've been through enough experiences of accepting "spiritual" and other words in conversations with people I don't know well, where the other party shortly starts talking about alien abductions and astral traveling, that I know what you mean. But I've also been through enough conversations with people who think science is infallible and will eventually find a solution to everything and an answer to every question.

Re: The Limits of Science

#40
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming we agree that there is an objective reality; someone who figures out truths by measuring then fitting is obviously doing science. The phenomenon studied by science are largely those that are real no matter how they are approached. There are easier and harder ways to come up with useful data and I endorse predict -> check-> refine as a great model; but if someone figured out laws by guessing what data they ne…

> someone who figures out truths by measuring then fitting is obviously doing science. No, the point is that is the wrong way around. Given any big amount of data you are going to find something that fits, e.g https://www.xkcd.com/882/ . You are not "predicting" anything if you come up with your fit afterwards. You can however use the fit you got to try to predict the outcome of future experiments. Checking that thos…

> Given any big amount of data you are going to find something that fits

Exactly, and that's the main problem at the base of all "data mining": it is probable that you will find a model that will only work with your data. Take a step outside and everything falls. You are basically giving a formula to noise.

But often discoveries happen also by chance, so we shouldn't stop looking at unexpected patterns. However, once you find one, you should create a theory to explain it and setup a new experiment to confirm your theory. If you can....

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