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The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

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Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#31

Post by DoreenMichele »

xitrium wrote: post #7

This did not hold up well, imo. Not sure how to count it but by some lists this is stuff like: Tencent, Alibaba, Amazon, Netflix, Priceline, Baidu, Salesforce.com, JD.com. Others would include Uber/Lyft, Airbnb, GitHub, ... There are only a few that would qualify that I can think of - Instagram, Snapchat, and WhatsApp. If folks here have other examples or thoughts on why this does or doesn't hold true would love to h…

Cars started out as ridiculous luxury toys for rich people.

Sometimes you gotta wait a few decades to see where things go.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#32

Post by Impossible »

airocker wrote: post #23
playpause wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't remember anyone saying Uber/Lyft/Airbnb were toys when they began. Some might have thought them unlikely to succeed, but that's not the same thing as being a toy.

I do not think we are referring to Toy's literal meaning here. IMO, Toy here means something insignificant that a few people/small market uses.

Exactly. Those of you that are hung up on toy meaning a literal toy or video game with no intrinsic value can replace the word toy with "gimmick" or "novelty" or even "a serious idea that won't scale" (http://paulgraham.com/ds.html).

Early Air Bed and Breakfast charging people for couch surfing and selling Obama O's (https://www.airbnb.com/obamaos) to fund their startup definitely feels toy like to me.

I'd argue there are entire categories that are currently considered toys, but eventually with the right business model, tech improvements and cultural changes will make the serious billion dollar tech companies we have now look like toys.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#33

Post by aazaa »

I think most participants in the Internet circa 1996 and personal computers in the early 1980s would understand this idea.

The Internet was being widely written off as a toy that many couldn't ever imagine having practical applications.

Case in point, this widely-cited piece from 1998:

> The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants--becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.

http://web.archive.org/web/19980610100009/www.redherring.com...

Here are some fun things about this concept of toys turning into big things:

1. toys start out looking like toys, too

2. it's extremely difficult to distinguish the toys that will remain toys forever from those that will become "the next big thing."

A useful approach to the problem posed by (2) is to look at things that appear to be toys but refuse to die despite every indication that they should have done so long ago.

Toys that remain toys often have a trendiness and inelasticity to them that gives them naturally short lives. If you see a toy lingering long beyond the time it should have given up the ghost, you may be looking at the next big thing.

The next problem is that it can take a very long time for a toy to turn into the next big thing.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#34

Post by jpindar »

awicklander wrote: post #28

This makes me think of Fortnite. What if Fortnite, and the impact it's going to have on us, is yet but a tiny baby?

Have you tried Fortnite Creative mode? It can be as much of a virtual world as a FPS game engine. People are building islands for other types of games, for socializing, and just as art for art's sake.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#35

Post by [deleted] »

playpause wrote: post #19
airocker wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber/Lyft/AirBnb were considered toys when they began. It may be that nowadays the transition from toy to big company is faster.

I don't remember anyone saying Uber/Lyft/Airbnb were toys when they began. Some might have thought them unlikely to succeed, but that's not the same thing as being a toy.

[deleted]

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#37

Post by alasdair_ »

xitrium wrote: post #7

This did not hold up well, imo. Not sure how to count it but by some lists this is stuff like: Tencent, Alibaba, Amazon, Netflix, Priceline, Baidu, Salesforce.com, JD.com. Others would include Uber/Lyft, Airbnb, GitHub, ... There are only a few that would qualify that I can think of - Instagram, Snapchat, and WhatsApp. If folks here have other examples or thoughts on why this does or doesn't hold true would love to h…

I can see curren-gen VR and AR games leading to next-gen "real AR" glasses with an impact on far more than just gaming.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#38

Post by jpindar »

kgwxd wrote: post #30
awicklander wrote: post #28

This makes me think of Fortnite. What if Fortnite, and the impact it's going to have on us, is yet but a tiny baby?

You must not have school-aged kids, Fortnite is already dead.

Of course I don't know what your kids are into, but Fortnite just started a whole new map, and there seem to be plenty of people playing.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#39

Post by dan_mctree »

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #25
Ancalagon wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually think AR could still be the next big thing, once the integration becomes seamless and the peripheral technology doesn't look ridiculous

I'd have to try it. The question is what's the killer app? VR essentially has 3 things going for it after becoming somewhat mature - Google Earth, Beat Saber, and porn. All are considered better in VR, but none are really "omg VR is the future!" level of amazing (to be fair I haven't tried the porn yet so maybe I don't realize how much I'm missing out). The notion of having a HUD for my eyes everywhere I go sounds ne…

A possible killer app might be something for business meetings. Videocalls are already a huge thing, but many feel like they're missing some real personal intimacy in there. If instead of a videocall, you could all be using AR to see each other walk around in front of you, that might make it a whole lot more appealing. If it's done right, you could have the same private one on one side conversations that are common in real life, but just in some AR space.

AR has a clear advantage over VR here as you wouldn't be blind to your real surroundings so you'd still be able to talk with the people in real life too (and not look like a doofus who walks into walls)

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#40

Post by Ancalagon »

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #25
Ancalagon wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually think AR could still be the next big thing, once the integration becomes seamless and the peripheral technology doesn't look ridiculous

I'd have to try it. The question is what's the killer app? VR essentially has 3 things going for it after becoming somewhat mature - Google Earth, Beat Saber, and porn. All are considered better in VR, but none are really "omg VR is the future!" level of amazing (to be fair I haven't tried the porn yet so maybe I don't realize how much I'm missing out). The notion of having a HUD for my eyes everywhere I go sounds ne…

I don't think there's going to be one killer app per se, just the feed of information streamed to peoples' brains is going to become so much larger. The one good example I can think of is walking the city, wearing an AR device and you get relevant news, historical pieces, restaurants, etc. as you walk.
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