I think a strong argument can be made either way. There's definitely financial savings to be had by doing it in-house (either literally or utilizing existing data centers as here). But what I've experienced is that companies are often attracted to Big Cloud™ not just for financial reasons but to flatten/simplify their corporate reporting structure. It is the ultimate delegation. This isn't simply about having fewer s…
...but they are also acumulating know how which they might be able to sell in decades to come. Even more if the scenario of mainframes, IBM software, Oracle databases,... will happen and sooner or later I believe it will. Currently cloud providers are operating on absolute minimum, to get as much customers as possible into their trap. And for sure, it is highly beneficial for startups that cant afford to buy on premi…
I think the opposite will happen. Cloud providers are becoming commoditized. Kubernetes, blah blah. Developers hate lock-in, and on a long time scale, developers drive tech decisions. Nowadays new software is cloud agnostic, and it will continue to be that way. This is commoditization, which generally drives down prices.
That said, buying commodities from a market with four participants is more like buying from a cartel than a marketplace. I definitely worry about the consolidation of the world’s IT spending going into the coffers of three or four massively profitable and morally corrupt corporations.