Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3 • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#31

Post by Robotbeat » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:12 PM UTC

xkjkls wrote: post #14

HenryKissinger wrote: post #4

Yet $TSLA has lost ~5% in after hours trading. Wat.png Edit: Wasn't aware of the 100k expectation.

Elon claimed they had a chance at 100,000 a few days ago. Based on that this isn't meeting expectations. Also, the revenue is what matters and the breakdown of 3 vs S vs X indicates they will have significantly lower ASPs and probably will post a YoY revenue decline. That's not great.

Are people really unable to tell the difference between when something is possible versus when it's likely? Maybe it's just my perspective as a physicist, but the gulf between those two things can be immense.

Considering the factory coming online very soon, I think the situation is looking pretty good, actually.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#32

Post by Robotbeat » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:13 PM UTC

microtherion wrote: post #25

rbf wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess 100k deliveries was the magic number investors were hoping for.

… and not entirely unreasonably so, given that Elon Musk teased that number as late as last week: “We have a shot at achieving our first 100,000 vehicle delivery quarter,” https://www.sbsun.com/2019/09/26/business-briefly-tesla-surg...

It is unreasonable. "Have a shot" implies it's unlikely to occur.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#33

Post by cma » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:13 PM UTC

dv_dt wrote: post #5

HenryKissinger wrote: post #4

Yet $TSLA has lost ~5% in after hours trading. Wat.png Edit: Wasn't aware of the 100k expectation.

The broad market was down almost 2% today, and Tesla is a higher alpha stock.

Most of the move was after hours when this report was released. Tesla was only down .6% during the day, despite the higher alpha and the market being down 2%.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#34

Post by Robotbeat » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:14 PM UTC

bonestamp2 wrote: post #22

imglorp wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And where did they get that number from?

A number of sources are reporting that Musk said it in an email to employees: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-26/tesla-sur...

On the contrary, he said "had a shot" at 100k, which implies it's unlikely but possible.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#35

Post by Lorenzo45 » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:15 PM UTC

samfisher83 wrote: post #23

In the last 4 quarters Tesla has delivered 271,521 model 3s. That would make it about the 12th best selling car in america. That is about as many escapes ford has sold. That is pretty phenomenal.

Edit: Didn't realize they were including Q4 2018

That's Tesla's total sales worldwide. About 50k of those sales are Model S/X. Their total sales for Model 3 in the US are at 114,500 for the year. Source: https://insideevs.com/news/373812/ev-sales-scorecard-septemb...

Still great numbers but just wanted to be accurate.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#36

Post by ip26 » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:15 PM UTC

xkjkls wrote: post #15

mandeepj wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

for analysts, it's always "fewer-than-expected" https://finance.yahoo.com/m/6d74ee60-9cf8-33a6-96ef-133909a1...

Unless it is more than expected.

Right, then it's "fewer-than-hoped"

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#37

Post by xkjkls » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:16 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #31

xkjkls wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon claimed they had a chance at 100,000 a few days ago. Based on that this isn't meeting expectations. Also, the revenue is what matters and the breakdown of 3 vs S vs X indicates they will have significantly lower ASPs and probably will post a YoY revenue decline. That's not great.

Are people really unable to tell the difference between when something is possible versus when it's likely? Maybe it's just my perspective as a physicist, but the gulf between those two things can be immense. Considering the factory coming online very soon, I think the situation is looking pretty good, actually.

Why do we think they are production limited instead of demand limited? They’ve had to lower ASPs for close to 5 consecutive quarters. That’s not indicative of production constrained.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#38

Post by samfisher83 » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:18 PM UTC

Lorenzo45 wrote: post #35

samfisher83 wrote: post #23

In the last 4 quarters Tesla has delivered 271,521 model 3s. That would make it about the 12th best selling car in america. That is about as many escapes ford has sold. That is pretty phenomenal.

Edit: Didn't realize they were including Q4 2018 That's Tesla's total sales worldwide. About 50k of those sales are Model S/X. Their total sales for Model 3 in the US are at 114,500 for the year. Source: https://insideevs.com/news/373812/ev-sales-scorecard-septemb... Still great numbers but just wanted to be accurate.

I am using the last 4q.

You can use the data from here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3#Deliveries

and here:

https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesl...

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#39

Post by xkjkls » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:18 PM UTC

ip26 wrote: post #36

xkjkls wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless it is more than expected.

Right, then it's "fewer-than-hoped"

No, then it’s “more than expected”. Wall Street has been a bull market for 10 straight years. If anything analysts are considerably charitable to companies

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#40

Post by elisharobinson » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:19 PM UTC

xkjkls wrote: post #27

graiz wrote: post #17

They had a leaked email posted last week that they were pushing for 100K. So 97k is less than was priced into the stock. Not sure why institutional investors don't like the stock and it's so heavily shorted and twitchy. Tesla could use a COO to manage operational expectations and let Elon focus more on engineering in the future. It'll keep his twitter/email free from setting market expectations.

Institutional investors don’t like the stock because it’s a 16 year old company that’s never made a profit a year in existence. It’s pretty easy to see how that could make any money manager run scared

So 2008 didn't happen I guess. I guess nobody in their right mind would buy and sell loans which aren't guaranteed. And I guess usable mass market EV's existed before 2018 and I guess Tesla is just running a scam .