The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

Post by richardw » Mon, Jul 29, 2019, 4:04 AM UTC

joe-collins wrote: post #18

sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

I think a robust charging network is a third dependency. You need to have a garage, or commute to someplace with or near a charger. Down here in San Diego (East County), I don't see a lot of the latter.

Post by xxpor » Mon, Jul 29, 2019, 4:15 AM UTC

Causality1 wrote: post #4

I would've been very excited about this back in the halcyon days of being able to carry spare batteries for my phone and laptop.

Post by m0zg » Mon, Jul 29, 2019, 4:18 AM UTC

ajross wrote: post #13

sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

> The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Plug-in electric sales in 2018 were up 61% over 2017, which was 51% higher than 2016 (via quick wikipedia check). What numbers would you want to see before calling that a "boom"? How much higher than 60% growth does something have to have before it's not "strangled"? I think that's silly. Clearly these things are going somewhere. Production at all levels is adapting…

Post by clouddrover » Mon, Jul 29, 2019, 4:40 AM UTC

sjwright wrote: post #24

threeseed wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> with no serious competitors Seems to be a different story in the US versus Europe. In Europe they have a lot more competitors either with cars now or coming soon e.g. VW ID3, VW Polestar 2, BMW i3, Honda e, Peuegot e-208, Renault Zoe, Nissan Leaf, Hyundai Kona EV, Mercedes EQC400/EQS, Audi eTron, Jaguar I-PACE etc. Tesla has largely had the market to itself but now you are seeing much higher quality cars with only…

Most of those are either quirky and compromised or simply not (yet) available in serious quantities. I'm personally looking forward to the Hyundai/Kia models, as they seem to be closest to getting the formula right—enough range, enough power, enough fit and finish. Once the cost and supply of batteries is "solved" they could dominate the economy segment for a while.

Post by kurthr » Mon, Jul 29, 2019, 5:00 AM UTC

m0zg wrote: post #35

ajross wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Plug-in electric sales in 2018 were up 61% over 2017, which was 51% higher than 2016 (via quick wikipedia check). What numbers would you want to see before calling that a "boom"? How much higher than 60% growth does something have to have before it's not "strangled"? I think that's silly. Clearly these things are going somewhere. Production at all levels is adapting…

Last month you ate one doughnut, this month you ate two, so month-to-month growth is 100%. Is your consumption of doughnuts booming? To say that it is, I'd need to see doughnuts replace a significant portion of your calorie intake first. Toyota RAV4 alone sold more than all plug-in cars combined.