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What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

scottberkun.com

31–40 of 70 posts

Re: What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

#32
post #27

To make the claim that this is a bad thing, one must argue that Microsoft's stock would be worth more today if Microsoft had not been aggressive about search. How a company shows gains and losses is also very subjective. The numbers could turn around and show strong profits around the time that bing reaches 45% market share (which will be soon).

And how much of that spending goes into supporting online efforts of other divisions. I imagine the "online" division handles everything most everything that goes online even if it is supporting offline products.

My understanding is that the Online division is only responsible for standalone consumer-oriented services, specifically Bing plus MSN. Online services that are tied to other products, such as Windows Live or Xbox Live or Office 365 are part of the respective divisions for those products, and more platform/infrastructure-oriented services like Azure are part of Server & Tools.

Re: What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

#33

This is a challenging problem that doesn't fit nicely into comments or short blog posts, but I'll try. Search is a tremendously expensive game to try and win. It's economics are such that the more search share you have, the more money you earn per search. This is a critical point, so I'll spell it out a little further. All search companies have more advertiser dollars than they have searches to spend them on, Google,…

Your analysis is very good. I just want to add that dynamics of "more searches -> more revenue per search" also holds for every individual niche. In order to make good money, one can build substantial market share either in certain geographies (e.g. Indonesia, India, China, Russia...) or verticals (shoppings, deals, travel, cars...).

Re: What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

#36
post #31

This is such small thinking. As one of the commenters on the page did: http://i.imgur.com/jHLOX.png It shows a much more likely scenario. Although maybe a bit over the top with the naming of the profit section as Google Kill Zone. Why can't big companies play nice. :)

do you project a turnaround right now? Looking at their current product base I would say "hell no!". Microsoft has nothing up and coming to convince me they will gain more search users. Each and every time they have unveiled a new search or online tool they have failed to capture the market. I do not see what will be different in the future once they come up with their next big idea. Bing is clearly not going to take over even with it being the default in internet explorer.

Re: What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

#37

This is a challenging problem that doesn't fit nicely into comments or short blog posts, but I'll try. Search is a tremendously expensive game to try and win. It's economics are such that the more search share you have, the more money you earn per search. This is a critical point, so I'll spell it out a little further. All search companies have more advertiser dollars than they have searches to spend them on, Google,…

This analysis seems right to me. MSFT's annual cash flow from operations is in the $24 billion+ range. MSFT has $44 billion of cash in the bank. What is MSFT going to do with all that cash? Watch Google slowly eat its business? I'm surprised MSFT hasn't invested more in web services -- $2 billion seems small given its resources. Could it be a shortage of opportunities?

Re: What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

#38

Disclaimer: I do not speak for Microsoft, I am simply an employee - these opinions are mine and mine alone. As someone working in the online services division I have to say that this analysis is extremely simplistic. Would they be saying the same thing about Facebook? It was in the red for many years before it became profitable. That was the plan.

The problem with this view is that yes, Facebook didn't have a strong monetization strategy for many years but they didn't need to when they were growing at such a breakneck pace. This is very different for MS which has lost share for many years until the launch of Bing.

Re: What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

#39
post #31

This is such small thinking. As one of the commenters on the page did: http://i.imgur.com/jHLOX.png It shows a much more likely scenario. Although maybe a bit over the top with the naming of the profit section as Google Kill Zone. Why can't big companies play nice. :)

No way in the world. MS has nothing to counter Google's search. Users will not switch to Bing, there's no reason to.

Re: What Microsoft gets for $2 billion

#40

Disclaimer: I do not speak for Microsoft, I am simply an employee - these opinions are mine and mine alone. As someone working in the online services division I have to say that this analysis is extremely simplistic. Would they be saying the same thing about Facebook? It was in the red for many years before it became profitable. That was the plan.

"They" is an ex-Microsoftie who spent (I think) 9 years at the company, including a long stint in IE. Food for thought.
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