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Time is running out for sand

nature.com

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Re: Time is running out for sand

#31
post #23

Their data supposedly comes from "Sverdrup, H. U., Koca, D. & Schlyter, P. BioPhys. Econ. Res. Qual.2, 8 (2017)" Vague reference, no title. This seems to be "BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality", which is a Springer publication. Here's the actual article, "A Simple System Dynamics Model for the Global Production Rate of Sand, Gravel, Crushed Rock and Stone, Market Prices and Long-Term Supply Embedded into the…

Heavy structural materials tend strongly toward local utilisation as transport costs are so prohibitive (water transport possibly excepted). Concrete companies are the canonical anti-monopoly-tending industrial sector example in many econ texts.[1]

So your objection is somewhat like claiming oxygen starvation by fire is impossible since the atmosphere as a whole is 20% oxygen. It's what's near you that matters, and the local impacts of sand and gravel mining are often severe. As the Nature article notes:

Desert sand grains are too smooth to be useful, and most of the angular sand that is suitable for industry comes from rivers (less than 1% of the world’s land).

Riparian ecosystems are generally the most productive of terrestrial (vs. marine) zones, and activities at one point on a river will have major impacts downstream and even offshore.[2]

Another excellent reference on physical resource use is Vaclav Smil's Making the Modern World https://www.worldcat.org/title/making-the-modern-world/oclc/...

________________________________

Notes:

1. Which suggests strongly that frictions may be the most effective antimonopoly measures, and low-friction sectors tend strongly toward monopoly.

2. E.g., the Mississippi River dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico, much of which is a consequence of Chicago toilets, 2000km north. As well as ag activity along the Mississippi-Missouri-Ohio-Arkansas-Red river system.

Re: Time is running out for sand

#32
post #22

So, industry needs angular sand, and that’s mostly found on rivers. The difference matters for concrete and such, but I wonder whether rivers are so fussy about the type of sand in them. What would happen if you took the desert sand and used it to replace the river sand? Because you’re now mining and transporting twice, you’ll definitely have higher costs.

> but I wonder whether rivers are so fussy about the type of sand in them. They might be. You might find that smoother sand flows more easily, and may be washed away. Certainly the size of grain is important, as smaller grains are carried more easily by the water. If the intention is simply to displace water, then a better option may be larger rocks. These would eventually be worn down to make more angular sand.

I suspect this is exactly it.

Industry wants the sand because it locks together instead of flowing. Why wouldn’t a river “want” the same thing?

Won’t all the round sand end up at the bottom of a lake or the ocean after a couple of years of seasonal rainstorms?

Re: Time is running out for sand

#33

As with every resource-depletion issue like this, the obvious answer is to reduce the number of humans. Consider never reproducing instead of trying to think of some clever technological solution.

I wonder if the people who make this sort of comment have seriously considered their own options for reducing the human population by one.

[deleted]

Re: Time is running out for sand

#34
Oh no. Nextera Energy, according to [1] is "... one of the largest wind and solar energy developers in North America". According to the article, 800 metric tons of concrete go into building a wind turbine.

Replacing all of the fossil fuel based power generation in the USA could require one million wind turbines according to some sources! My own back of the envelope calculations indicate that we would need close to 500,000 wind turbine to be built. I suppose that additional infrastructure and changes to the power grid for such a massive number of turbines could require addition concrete as well, spelling doom for sand.

[1] http://ontario-wind-resistance.org/2013/04/17/nextera-energy...

Re: Time is running out for sand

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

its in one of the two charts, as an image.

Yeah, but nearly every other HN comment is either 1) wringing its hands about a problem that probably has less of an impact on construction prices than a single NIMBY catching a cold and missing the next zoning meeting 2) suggesting an alternative that would charitably be 1000x the current market clearing price, ignoring the fact that there are probably alternatives at 1.2x, 1.3x, and 1.8x the current price that will…

No kidding. Sand is one of the cheapest substances you can buy, and always has been. If it increases enough in price, builders will use something else. They're still using sand...

Re: Time is running out for sand

#38

The problem seems to be that desert sand is too smooth to use in concrete. Perhaps a method is needed for fusing desert sand in such a way that it becomes rough. Perhaps large fresnel lenses that use sunlight to fuse the grains into small clumps?

Perhaps melt it into glass and then as it cools take the broken chunks and grind 'em up into sand again. A bit energy intensive but hey, if you're running out of sand and and all you have is the wind-blown smooth kind...

Crushed or ground glass is already used in concrete:

http://www.concrete.org.uk/fingertips-nuggets.asp?cmd=displa...

Interestingly, it can be either aggregate or cement, depending on how finely it is ground.

Re: Time is running out for sand

#39
post #13

So I've come around to the belief that we're on the verge of another massive civilization-level change that will be transformative. Think flight, electricity, motorized transport, plastic, writing, agriculture, domestication, firearms, etc (and no I'm not just listing techs from Civ). That change will be when we have cheaper mass power generation than fossil fuels. The reason this will be transformative is that a lot…

We can't manufacture the sand we need (yet).

Re: Time is running out for sand

#40

As with every resource-depletion issue like this, the obvious answer is to reduce the number of humans. Consider never reproducing instead of trying to think of some clever technological solution.

I wonder if the people who make this sort of comment have seriously considered their own options for reducing the human population by one.

Please don't tell me to consider suicide for myself. I do contemplate it a lot, I'm not very happy on this planet. I won't reproduce though; ain't no thang.
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