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Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

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Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#31

Post by crazygringo »

reallydude wrote: post #29
crazygringo wrote: post #3

> Q: Several studies show technology will disrupt jobs, but they also argue that almost as many jobs will be created. > A: There’s a mismatch of job displacement and job creation. Job displacement is being driven at the speed of digital technology, which is explosive at this moment. And displacement is the business model for the AI geniuses and all those companies. All of them are hoping to get rich by displacing wor…

> There's zero evidence that "creating jobs is slower." Opportunity for innovation in the market is far less than opportunity for innovation (ie automation) in business processes. Given a hypothetical business equilibrium (business growth has stabilized or slowed to a small linear function) I have 2 employees. 1 employee writes a program to automate the other employee's job. Now I have 1 employees. In order for me to…

Job creation doesn't require that much innovation in the market. It just requires demand.

People want better coffee and pastries, suddenly there are hundreds of thousands of jobs for baristas, bakers and managers.

People grow older and need care, suddenly the number of employees in home care expands drastically.

And so on. Maybe for you to need another employee you need a new product/process/business... but most business are just trying to meet existing demand in simple small ways.

Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#32

Post by ryanmarsh »

ZhuanXia wrote: post #2

I remember reading Average is Over and A Fairwell to Alms just when I first started working. They convinced me that labour power was going to decline precipitously. I stared saving 60+% of everything I made and putting it into index funds. Anyone making a good salary should attempt the same. Much of white collar work is extremely amenable to automation, much more than even truck driving: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wi…

Being a consultant with clients in a wide range of industries I concur. Most of the employees I come into contact with have jobs that could be automated with a few days or weeks of programmer effort. They are one successful software project from losing their jobs. Lucky for them their companies are terrible at shipping software.

Conversely, automating the work of a plumber would require a massive investment in AI and robotics.

Also, nobody makes a robot that can be trusted to repaint the trim in my house unattended.

Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#33

Post by crazygringo »

jessriedel wrote: post #17

Given that the global poor gaining jobs are statistically much worse off than those losing them, I'd say it's inhumanely slow...

That's just factually untrue.

First-world workers aren't losing jobs in aggregate at all. They're not statistically worse off at all. (Unfortunately median income hasn't been improving, but it certainly hasn't been getting meaningfully worse.)

While the global poor are experiencing massive benefits lifting them out of poverty.

I fail to see what is inhumane here.

Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#34

Post by wrong_variable »

JPLeRouzic wrote: post #9
wrong_variable wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a large amount of white collar workers are jobless, your SPY calls would also become worthless. It's a good idea to invest in index funds, but investing in index funds expecting a economic apocalypse is not good reasoning.

Do you have any suggestion as to what would be a good investment? Thanks!

I am not an investment expert, you should consult with your financial advisor, my personal rule of thumb is :

1 - Invest in yourself. - Health - Education - Social circle

2 - Invest in your living space. - Buy an apartment anywhere on earth where you can afford, you can take cheap flights to anywhere on earth these days. Even the remotest part of Africa can be reached within 1 day and less than 500 dollars. ( you are normally paying more than 700 dollars in rent anywhere in the developed world ).

3 - Buy high yielding government bonds, preferably multiple countries.

4 - Buy index funds.

I do not prefer gold / silver, there is severe restrictions in moving them around, and high taxation in audit and transaction. government bonds are generally tax exempt. You are better off investing in guns than gold if the economy collapses.

Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#35

Post by ChuckNorris89 »

bastawhiz wrote: post #30
walshemj wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the entry level white collar jobs that can be automated have been. Those that remain would require some major and I mean order of magnitudes improvements in AI. Can you give me some examples of white collar jobs that you think can be automated?

I worked at a large tech company that had an enormous finance department. They did everything in Excel. Our job was to automate their work. The tools we built were routinely more accurate and faster than the finance people were. When our work was less accurate, it was because the input was bad. The input came from the finance team. The only reason they didn't disappear entirely was because they'd convinced management…

People are already fighting back against this. I'm a SWE and my EX worked at the finance department in a huge robotics company.

Their department did everything by copying and pasting stuff in excel in a painfully slow and cumbersome way.

She told me their challenges, so I wrote some python scripts to automate their work.

When she showed it to her boss, hoping to get a positive response, his reaction was "Put that away if you like your job here!"

This is the nightmare of every middle manager. They won't be able to justify their existence if their teams get automated away so they will actively fight against it.

Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#36

Post by crazygringo »

nosianu wrote: post #4
crazygringo wrote: post #3

> Q: Several studies show technology will disrupt jobs, but they also argue that almost as many jobs will be created. > A: There’s a mismatch of job displacement and job creation. Job displacement is being driven at the speed of digital technology, which is explosive at this moment. And displacement is the business model for the AI geniuses and all those companies. All of them are hoping to get rich by displacing wor…

Okay... so now also include in your statement the quality of those new jobs. Not how many electronic gadgets people can buy compared to 50 years ago, but how stressed they are and how they fit into greater society. Also include how useful many jobs feel to those working in them - reference to "Dilbert jobs" (or Wally jobs, if you like and how common the feeling seems to be that ones job is useless (I myself certainly…

Sorry, but you should look at what jobs used to be like.

Back-breaking work on the farm. Mind-numbing and body-destroying assembly line work that could cut off your hand. Construction work without any of the safety standards we now have. Alcohol consumption and tobacco smoking was sky-high.

Any way you slice it, the quality of jobs today is tremendously higher than in the past, and people are not being paid less.

True, job tenure is no longer as long-term as it used to be, and probably doesn't come with a pension, but the flip side is that it's also never been easier to find a job and leave a bad one, and you can manage your own 401(k) that won't disappear if your employer goes bankrupt.

Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#38

Post by [deleted] »

walshemj wrote: post #24
ZhuanXia wrote: post #2

I remember reading Average is Over and A Fairwell to Alms just when I first started working. They convinced me that labour power was going to decline precipitously. I stared saving 60+% of everything I made and putting it into index funds. Anyone making a good salary should attempt the same. Much of white collar work is extremely amenable to automation, much more than even truck driving: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wi…

Most of the entry level white collar jobs that can be automated have been. Those that remain would require some major and I mean order of magnitudes improvements in AI. Can you give me some examples of white collar jobs that you think can be automated?

[deleted]

Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#39

Post by somatic »

bastawhiz wrote: post #30
walshemj wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the entry level white collar jobs that can be automated have been. Those that remain would require some major and I mean order of magnitudes improvements in AI. Can you give me some examples of white collar jobs that you think can be automated?

I worked at a large tech company that had an enormous finance department. They did everything in Excel. Our job was to automate their work. The tools we built were routinely more accurate and faster than the finance people were. When our work was less accurate, it was because the input was bad. The input came from the finance team. The only reason they didn't disappear entirely was because they'd convinced management…

> I worked at a large tech company that had

How big is their finance department now?

Re: Richard Baldwin on the “inhumanely fast” next phase of globalization

#40

Post by orpep90nxkfo »

vidarh wrote: post #28
orpep90nxkfo wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re assuming cash will hold value after a so-called economy apocalypse? If the economic credibility of the nation goes, so too does the value of its cash currency. What’s a “more white collar workers than jobs” economy look like? Personally, I’m leaning into useful life skills, like growing food, reconnecting to hunting, low level electronics, rebuilding my car, and home myself with my money now. I’d rather have d…

Depends what you are preparing for. If you think automation is going to happen but that capitalism will survive, then index funds seems line a good idea. If you think capitalism will be supplanted, it depends on what you think will replace it. If we're looking at a Mad Max style dystopia, then sure, it won't help to have lots of shares. But presumably you'd see signs of that before we get there and be able to start c…

I guess I’m assuming “economic apocalypse” means “fall of the nation state concept as we know it.” since that is the lynch pin for economic trade.

Business operations as a whole are so reliant on the legal rails, like it or not, they’d have to fail spectacularly to create “economic apocalypse” to my mind.

I forget some people see run of the mill loss of wealth status as akin to loss of life. So perhaps apocalypse to them means going from $100 million in wealth to merely $10 million, but the social foundations that support that wealth largely remain intact

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