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When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

thereformedbroker.com

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Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#31

Post by nradov »

yoz-y wrote: post #8
elcomet wrote: post #2

> This is why Uber is worth more than all of the auto makers and taxi companies that own their own fleets of cars. I think this is bullshit. Uber may be worth more than auto makers, but this is a bubble and will not last (unless uber manages to create an autonomous taxi service in the next few years). They were just lucky and intelligent enough to get around regulations, but regulations are catching them. Uber's tech…

> Uber's tech is simple and easily replicable. The moment they raise their prices, they loose their market share. There is no network effect in this market. I disagree that there is no network effect. When one travels to another country it is much easier to use Uber rather than to find what local brew of 'carpooling' service is available, create an account, put in credit card info etc. Their tech is easily replicable…

People who frequently travel to a bunch of different countries are a tiny niche market. The vast majority of ride sharing customers take few or zero international trips per year.

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#32

Post by elcomet »

jaster wrote: post #25
elcomet wrote: post #2

> This is why Uber is worth more than all of the auto makers and taxi companies that own their own fleets of cars. I think this is bullshit. Uber may be worth more than auto makers, but this is a bubble and will not last (unless uber manages to create an autonomous taxi service in the next few years). They were just lucky and intelligent enough to get around regulations, but regulations are catching them. Uber's tech…

Many people comment under your message that Uber benefits from captured market shares and network effect. In this regard, the following article https://hbr.org/2019/01/why-some-platforms-thrive-and-others... (posted here a week ago https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20142912 ) can be of interest. In summary, the article argues that some platforms, such as Uber, benefit far less than others (such as Amazon, AirBnB)…

I'm not sure this is the main cause, but it's an interesting point of view.

For Amazon, their Network effect is huge because they have a huge delivery and storage facility network. The barrier to entry is huge.

For Airbnb, it might be closer to what this article is saying. But also it's less convenient for home owners to have their location on multiple sites (need to sync calendars, the subscription takes much longer...). So they pick one, which is Airbnb.

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#33

Post by elcomet »

paulpauper wrote: post #22
elcomet wrote: post #2

> This is why Uber is worth more than all of the auto makers and taxi companies that own their own fleets of cars. I think this is bullshit. Uber may be worth more than auto makers, but this is a bubble and will not last (unless uber manages to create an autonomous taxi service in the next few years). They were just lucky and intelligent enough to get around regulations, but regulations are catching them. Uber's tech…

Uber's tech is simple and easily replicable. The moment they raise their prices, they loose their market share. There is no network effect in this market. Ppl said the same about Facebook in 2006-2012. "Anyone can make a social network." Yes, the technology can be replicated but the network and market-share cannot.

Technology being simple is not the argument here.

Of course a social network has by definition a network effect, no one argued this.

Uber is definitely not a social network. Maybe they plan to become one, but they are not yet.

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#34

Post by elcomet »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #29
zepto wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What network?

You've got the customers because they know you've got enough drivers. You've got the drivers because they know you've got enough customers.

I have Lyft and Uber on my phone. I just pick the cheapest one when I need a ride. And drivers also have Lyft and Uber. And they just pick the one that offers them the highest rates.

No network effect here.

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#35

Post by AnimalMuppet »

elcomet wrote: post #34
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've got the customers because they know you've got enough drivers. You've got the drivers because they know you've got enough customers.

I have Lyft and Uber on my phone. I just pick the cheapest one when I need a ride. And drivers also have Lyft and Uber. And they just pick the one that offers them the highest rates. No network effect here.

There's still a network effect; it's just a duopoly. The third outfit trying to make this work can't, because they don't have anyone with their app on the phone, because they don't have any drivers, and they don't have any drivers because nobody wants to drive for them because they don't have any customers.

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#36

Post by ohiovr »

mola wrote: post #11

This is not cheap money, this is dumb money. When powerful people make stupid decisions, most people will, nevertheless, copycat their wrong decision. One way or another, reality will smack us in the face and a reckoning will come. The sad part is that those stupid powerful people will be hit much less than the populus they enslave.

Well that would be true, the largest stock holders are board members so they tell the board to buy stocks, which they happen to have a large position to sell..

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#38

Post by hamilyon2 »

yoz-y wrote: post #8
elcomet wrote: post #2

> This is why Uber is worth more than all of the auto makers and taxi companies that own their own fleets of cars. I think this is bullshit. Uber may be worth more than auto makers, but this is a bubble and will not last (unless uber manages to create an autonomous taxi service in the next few years). They were just lucky and intelligent enough to get around regulations, but regulations are catching them. Uber's tech…

> Uber's tech is simple and easily replicable. The moment they raise their prices, they loose their market share. There is no network effect in this market. I disagree that there is no network effect. When one travels to another country it is much easier to use Uber rather than to find what local brew of 'carpooling' service is available, create an account, put in credit card info etc. Their tech is easily replicable…

I have had opposite experience in Japan

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#40

Post by Haul4ss »

gnode wrote: post #14
elcomet wrote: post #2

> This is why Uber is worth more than all of the auto makers and taxi companies that own their own fleets of cars. I think this is bullshit. Uber may be worth more than auto makers, but this is a bubble and will not last (unless uber manages to create an autonomous taxi service in the next few years). They were just lucky and intelligent enough to get around regulations, but regulations are catching them. Uber's tech…

> Uber's tech is simple and easily replicable. The same can be said for web shops like Amazon. The tech is nothing special, but the brand and network are. The promise of Uber is in becoming a trusted brand, with capacity everywhere, and convenient enough that you don't bother looking to the competition. That said, whether they can actually become this is another question.

Amazon is so much more than a "web shop"... its logistics infrastructure alone is worth actual money, to say nothing of AWS, Prime lock-in, etc.
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