31–40 of 166 posts
>‘Once we build a generally intelligent system, that basically we will ask it to figure out a way to make an investment return for you.' Maybe lets do curing cancer first?
Allow me to present Altman's wager: - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you invested in it, you lose some finite money (or not, depending on the value of their other R&D) - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you did not invest in it, you saved some finite money, which you could invest elsewhere for finite returns - If OpenAI achieves AGI and you invested in it, you get infinite returns, because AGI will capture al…
> If OpenAI achieves AGI and you invested in it, you get infinite returns The article states that this is explicitly false. By design, OpenAI's investor returns are capped at 100x. I find it odd that 3 other people have also replied to your comment and I'm the first one to mention that OpenAI has explicitly capped investor returns to prevent an explosion in inequality. I wonder how many people read the full article b…
Allow me to present Altman's wager: - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you invested in it, you lose some finite money (or not, depending on the value of their other R&D) - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you did not invest in it, you saved some finite money, which you could invest elsewhere for finite returns - If OpenAI achieves AGI and you invested in it, you get infinite returns, because AGI will capture al…
Has the same issue as Pascal's. Competing AGI projects (gods) exist and their believers might be the ones reaping the infinite rewards, not to mention the distinct possibility the AGI (god) doesn't actually see rewarding believers as its highest priority, and might choose to share its infinite rewards with people who aren't part of the inner circle, or even punish people who joined inner circles with the express inte…
Allow me to present Altman's wager: - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you invested in it, you lose some finite money (or not, depending on the value of their other R&D) - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you did not invest in it, you saved some finite money, which you could invest elsewhere for finite returns - If OpenAI achieves AGI and you invested in it, you get infinite returns, because AGI will capture al…
If AGI ever comes to fruit it will cause such a huge disruption that anything that came before it will not be useful in trying to predict aspects of the world after it. For all we know the people that backed it will be hunted down like rats for extermination.
Allow me to present Altman's wager: - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you invested in it, you lose some finite money (or not, depending on the value of their other R&D) - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you did not invest in it, you saved some finite money, which you could invest elsewhere for finite returns - If OpenAI achieves AGI and you invested in it, you get infinite returns, because AGI will capture al…
> If OpenAI achieves AGI and you invested in it, you get infinite returns The article states that this is explicitly false. By design, OpenAI's investor returns are capped at 100x. I find it odd that 3 other people have also replied to your comment and I'm the first one to mention that OpenAI has explicitly capped investor returns to prevent an explosion in inequality. I wonder how many people read the full article b…
- General hubris (ambition?) weeds out skeptics (curmudgeons?) In the audience right away. Not the intended buyer!
- Every minute a potential investor spends contemplating the impact of a 100x return cap is a moment they are framing on that outcome.
- OpenAI already proved that they can advance the cutting edge on specific AI tasks. In that context, AGI is a good smokescreen (or the kind of North star that you navigate toward without reaching). It's attractive to idealistic investors and new hires, but also justifies pragmatic research.
I don't put weight on the AGI goal, but I fully believe that Sam can help find business models in the research projects that can be executed with a critical mass of talent and capital.
I want to short Altman and his startup. How do I do it? Prediction markets?
After I made a comment hear last year about prediction markets and startups [1] a VC got in touch with me to kick the idea around. To my mind one of SV's big problems is the high level of hype and herd-following. It's a certainty money is getting wasted on fashionable ideas of the day (e.g., "Uber for X"), and some sort of informational corrective could get VCs better returns. But we couldn't figure out a sustainable way to fund it.
Allow me to present Altman's wager: - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you invested in it, you lose some finite money (or not, depending on the value of their other R&D) - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you did not invest in it, you saved some finite money, which you could invest elsewhere for finite returns - If OpenAI achieves AGI and you invested in it, you get infinite returns, because AGI will capture al…
The whole point of the singularity is that it changes _everything_ and we have no idea what's on the other side of it.
Why would the New Mind give a shit about petty human notions like investment?
Allow me to present Altman's wager: - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you invested in it, you lose some finite money (or not, depending on the value of their other R&D) - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you did not invest in it, you saved some finite money, which you could invest elsewhere for finite returns - If OpenAI achieves AGI and you invested in it, you get infinite returns, because AGI will capture al…
Has the same issue as Pascal's. Competing AGI projects (gods) exist and their believers might be the ones reaping the infinite rewards, not to mention the distinct possibility the AGI (god) doesn't actually see rewarding believers as its highest priority, and might choose to share its infinite rewards with people who aren't part of the inner circle, or even punish people who joined inner circles with the express inte…
The payoff from AGI may be incalculable, but it isn't infinite both in itself and in Altman's ability to enjoy the rewards it promises. Once the value becomes finite, a whole heap of risk-reward logic kicks in that the Wager wants to sweep under the rug.
As a concrete example, following this Altman's wager would result in Altman giving all his wealth to the first beggar on the street who mumbles that he might be able to run an AGI project - the possibility that the beggar can achieve that is, technically speaking, nonzero. Multiply that by infinity and you have a great expected return (infinite, in fact). However, practically speaking, the risk will overwhelm the large-but-finite payoff.
Infinity is bigger than people think :P
I want to short Altman and his startup. How do I do it? Prediction markets?
Sadly, as far as I know, it's impossible to short startups, but I wish it were otherwise. After I made a comment hear last year about prediction markets and startups [1] a VC got in touch with me to kick the idea around. To my mind one of SV's big problems is the high level of hype and herd-following. It's a certainty money is getting wasted on fashionable ideas of the day (e.g., "Uber for X"), and some sort of infor…
The company could also hang on for a long time before being acquired or going out of business.