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The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)

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Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)

#31

Post by coldtea »

mrob wrote: post #22
in_cahoots wrote: post #17

The author almost stumbles on the answer to his question when he shows the height distribution. It’s bimodal, because men and women have different average heights. Similarly, flagship and lower-tier phone buyers will display distributions in what they’re willing to pay. If you combine two separate normal distributions you can always make a claim that a single distribution is no longer normal. But that doesn’t make it…

It's not similar to height distribution. At the population statistics level, human height is bimodal because humans either have a Y chromosome or they don't. What is the equivalent binary variable for the phone market?

Obviously income. Are you in the upper 20% that does great (or still fine), or in the 80% that's increasingly scrapping by?

Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)

#32

Post by closeparen »

coldtea wrote: post #26

> We can see, too, that these bifurcations are driven by a shift from a world of scarcity to a world of abundance. To me all these bifurcations seem to me to stem from a change of a world of more evenly distributed wealth (for working, lower middle, and middle class) and one with wild inequality. It's a world where a 10-20% can afford the "whatever" (e.g. best phone, live in NY/Bay area, university degree, etc) and t…

Inequality is not “top X%” vs. “the rest.” Every part of the distribution is stretching. Every pair of points is further apart than it used to be.

Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)

#33

Post by coldtea »

Jonanin wrote: post #30
coldtea wrote: post #26

> We can see, too, that these bifurcations are driven by a shift from a world of scarcity to a world of abundance. To me all these bifurcations seem to me to stem from a change of a world of more evenly distributed wealth (for working, lower middle, and middle class) and one with wild inequality. It's a world where a 10-20% can afford the "whatever" (e.g. best phone, live in NY/Bay area, university degree, etc) and t…

500 years ago, only 1-2% could afford "whatever" and the rest had to scrap by and pinch pennies. I'm not sure we're moving to a world of less evenly distributed wealth.

Only we're not beasts. Wealth is social and relative based on the era.

E.g. nobody feels like a champion as a unemployed homeless in LA, or a single mom making ends meet hand-to-mouth, just because 8000 years ago other people lived in caves, died at 30, and where often hunted by wild animals...

The change compared to not-so-distant decades, when a single-income middle class family had a job for life, could afford a house, and college education for their kids -- compared to living paycheck to paycheck is more relevant to whether we enter a world of more inequality, than what they did in the caves or the wild west.

Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)

#34

Post by coldtea »

closeparen wrote: post #32
coldtea wrote: post #26

> We can see, too, that these bifurcations are driven by a shift from a world of scarcity to a world of abundance. To me all these bifurcations seem to me to stem from a change of a world of more evenly distributed wealth (for working, lower middle, and middle class) and one with wild inequality. It's a world where a 10-20% can afford the "whatever" (e.g. best phone, live in NY/Bay area, university degree, etc) and t…

Inequality is not “top X%” vs. “the rest.” Every part of the distribution is stretching. Every pair of points is further apart than it used to be.

Well, middle class now is closer to working class precariousness, than before, so it's not exactly that "every pair of points is further apart than it used to be".

Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)

#35

Post by zeroonetwothree »

coldtea wrote: post #26

> We can see, too, that these bifurcations are driven by a shift from a world of scarcity to a world of abundance. To me all these bifurcations seem to me to stem from a change of a world of more evenly distributed wealth (for working, lower middle, and middle class) and one with wild inequality. It's a world where a 10-20% can afford the "whatever" (e.g. best phone, live in NY/Bay area, university degree, etc) and t…

In 1980 median house price in SF was $200k. Median US household income was $17k. So it wasn’t exactly affordable and of course the Bay Area is much more appealing now so it makes sense that relative prices have risen.

In Manhattan rent in 1980 was around $1200 for a one bedroom, so it’s not even significantly different.

Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)

#36

Post by JMTQp8lwXL »

opportune wrote: post #19

This is a dumb article. Wow, the author rediscovered a beta distribution without knowing what a beta distribution is.

Not everyone is an expert in statistics. But there were many other interesting points beyond the statistical in the article, like the implication of this phenomena on our economy.

Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)

#37

Post by tomrod »

coldtea wrote: post #26

> We can see, too, that these bifurcations are driven by a shift from a world of scarcity to a world of abundance. To me all these bifurcations seem to me to stem from a change of a world of more evenly distributed wealth (for working, lower middle, and middle class) and one with wild inequality. It's a world where a 10-20% can afford the "whatever" (e.g. best phone, live in NY/Bay area, university degree, etc) and t…

> Back in the 50s and up to the 80s a signle-income middle class household could still send a kid to college, buy a house, and so on

For some parts of the US, yes, but it would be a generalization error to assume this was a common condition for everyone.

Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)

#38

Post by closeparen »

coldtea wrote: post #34
closeparen wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inequality is not “top X%” vs. “the rest.” Every part of the distribution is stretching. Every pair of points is further apart than it used to be.

Well, middle class now is closer to working class precariousness, than before, so it's not exactly that "every pair of points is further apart than it used to be".

The differences within middle and working class are also widening.

Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)

#39

Post by mrob »

coldtea wrote: post #31
mrob wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not similar to height distribution. At the population statistics level, human height is bimodal because humans either have a Y chromosome or they don't. What is the equivalent binary variable for the phone market?

Obviously income. Are you in the upper 20% that does great (or still fine), or in the 80% that's increasingly scrapping by?

Except income is no longer bimodal. It was back in the 70s, but now there's just a single peak. See:

https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2013/12/Global-inequality...

However, growth in income is bimodal:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Global_changes_in_re...

Could that affect the phone market indirectly, by consumer confidence? It's possible, but it's not nearly as clear-cut as human height.

Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)

#40

Post by iheartpotatoes »

Jonanin wrote: post #30
coldtea wrote: post #26

> We can see, too, that these bifurcations are driven by a shift from a world of scarcity to a world of abundance. To me all these bifurcations seem to me to stem from a change of a world of more evenly distributed wealth (for working, lower middle, and middle class) and one with wild inequality. It's a world where a 10-20% can afford the "whatever" (e.g. best phone, live in NY/Bay area, university degree, etc) and t…

500 years ago, only 1-2% could afford "whatever" and the rest had to scrap by and pinch pennies. I'm not sure we're moving to a world of less evenly distributed wealth.

Cute, but facts?
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