Does this mean Intel's recently released high capacity SSD line (1 TB at 130€) will become more expensive?
Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production
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Re: Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production
#32Does this mean Intel's recently released high capacity SSD line (1 TB at 130€) will become more expensive?
Those drives are QLC (Quad-Layer Cell) which allows higher density at the cost of long term reliability. Higher density means more bits per wafer, which leads to lower cost per bit.
Re: Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you misunderstood my concern. I'm not talking about Intel adjusting its production to meet its demand. I'm talking about a collection of competetitors getting together and saying that we should limit supply so that the prices stay where they can make a good profit. How could that be healthy competition? If all cement manufacturers suddenly got together and said they'll keep their prices at 40% more than other…
The "getting together" is entirely your own supposition. The NAND manufacturers have not made any joint announcements or otherwise admitted to any joint action. They have responded similarly to market conditions that affect all of them equally, which is to be expected whether or not they are coordinating. These announcements were completely predictable; we knew last summer that something like this would have to happe…
>The "getting together" is entirely your own supposition.
A not unreasonable one considering two of the three (Hynix and Micron) are convicted price fixers.
Re: Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production
#34Buy Samsung NAND, it's good and they keep making it.
They were the first to cut back supply. I'm guessing you work for them?
https://www.techspot.com/news/79303-micron-follows-samsung-r...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-30/samsung-p...
Re: Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
Price fixing in the NAND market has been rife for years now. All the same companies that have previously been busted for price fixing DRAM, LCD panels, then DRAM again, are involved in NAND. There is no rational reason why SSD storage should be as expensive as mechanical storage, let alone come at a premium. No rare materials are involved. No exotic manufacturing processes are needed. It's just a stupid regular grid…
The depreciation on the equipment used to make NAND would not come close to supporting the prices you describe. In a market with a small number of players, public disclosures of capacity adjustments are sufficient to "collude". But 10 TB for $100 would require a something like a 10x reduction in pricing. None of the memory manufacturers have margins close to that good.
10TB for $100 is barely enough to cover the raw silicon wafers.
Re: Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production
#36Does this mean Intel's recently released high capacity SSD line (1 TB at 130€) will become more expensive?
It's hard to say exactly what the effect will be on Intel's consumer product line, because it exists primarily to use up leftovers that were discarded from their enterprise/datacenter SSD products. If their yields for QLC NAND get too good, supplies of their consumer QLC drives may largely dry up when most of their QLC makes the cut for enterprise drives.
Re: Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production
#37Earlier quoted context omitted.
it's illegal if and only if it can be proven that they coordinated their production cut. They all respond to the same changing market conditions -- they can't just continue increasing their production when the price continues its downward spiral. Further, the largest producer Samsung hasn't joined the foray yet according to the article. Samsung is a big variable in this -- the company's expansion created the memory g…
>This is probably not the case here. Why do we think that? Hasn't these companies and/or industry been caught and fined for illegally coordinating their efforts before?
Well, one of the reasons is that that's what we've expected all along.
When Samsung announced a major expansion in early 2010's, many analysts predicted the price glut in 2015-16 that followed. That memory price glut (and a record loss by all industry participants) in turn discouraged capex by memory makers that resulted in the 2017-18 boom we just witnessed. So now, the windfall during the last boom likewise encouraged higher capex and production increase that is now driving down the price and their bottom line again -- the industry nearly completes a full cycle and is at another trough marked by decrease in capex and production cut. There is really nothing too conspiratorial about this business cycle.
Sure, I think every memory makers at one point got caught price-fixing, but you can't just say they are colluding again just because they are all cutting production under unfavorable market condition (ie, lower demand/falling price).
Re: Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
>This is probably not the case here. Why do we think that? Hasn't these companies and/or industry been caught and fined for illegally coordinating their efforts before?
Well, one of the reasons is that that's what we've expected all along. When Samsung announced a major expansion in early 2010's, many analysts predicted the price glut in 2015-16 that followed. That memory price glut (and a record loss by all industry participants) in turn discouraged capex by memory makers that resulted in the 2017-18 boom we just witnessed. So now, the windfall during the last boom likewise encoura…
Another important contributing factor is how well the manufacturers do at getting each generation of NAND to actually work. Samsung's 48L 3D NAND was a relative failure around the same time that their competitors were trying to get their first 3D NANDs working to overcome the limitations of planar NAND. That kicked off a serious shortage, so when almost everybody came out with successful, high-yield 64L 3D NAND around the same time, prices had a long way to fall. The current moves are attempts to ensure that the transition to 96L NAND doesn't continue the price drops.
Re: Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production
#39Does this mean Intel's recently released high capacity SSD line (1 TB at 130€) will become more expensive?
Those drives are QLC (Quad-Layer Cell) which allows higher density at the cost of long term reliability. Higher density means more bits per wafer, which leads to lower cost per bit.
This also means speeds of 80MB/s once you fill up the SLC cache which is 2GB or so.