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Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

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Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#31

Post by mtgx »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #25
WhompingWindows wrote: post #19

Does anyone here have thoughts about the quality of candidates as it relates to their ages (i.e. comparing late 70's Bernie/Biden and these younger candidates)? While I like the policies of Bernie, for instance, I ideally would prefer someone who doesn't have a high % likelihood of serious medical issues in the next 4 years of their life. Is there an age that is too old to be a CEO/President/Senator/leading figure? A…

VP choice makes a bigger difference for an older candidate, which might be why rumors are that Biden will be choosing his running mate very early in the process.

Bernie/Buttigieg 2020?

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#32

Post by trendoid »

WhompingWindows wrote: post #19

Does anyone here have thoughts about the quality of candidates as it relates to their ages (i.e. comparing late 70's Bernie/Biden and these younger candidates)? While I like the policies of Bernie, for instance, I ideally would prefer someone who doesn't have a high % likelihood of serious medical issues in the next 4 years of their life. Is there an age that is too old to be a CEO/President/Senator/leading figure? A…

>Are they necessarily too likely to be out of touch, lacking in resiliency, being forward-looking, or any of the factors we look for in our leaders?

Possibly but at this point, any Democratic leader would be waaay more forward looking, less out of touch and more dedicated to their job than the incompetent incumbent president. So as long as Bernie brings more people to vote than Yang or Buttigieg, all these considerations aren't that important.

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#33

Post by objektif »

Octoth0rpe wrote: post #2

Re:Yang, I'm vaguely sympathetic to the idea of "elect a business person so they can run government like a business", but any openness to the idea goes out the window when the candidate's business is venture capital.

His primary business was a test prep company he sold to Kaplan. As far as I know he did not own or work for a VC firm.

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#34

Post by smallgovt »

Octoth0rpe wrote: post #2

Re:Yang, I'm vaguely sympathetic to the idea of "elect a business person so they can run government like a business", but any openness to the idea goes out the window when the candidate's business is venture capital.

This comment doesn't make sense since Andrew Yang has no background in venture capital.

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#35

Post by fullshark »

dopylitty wrote: post #21

It would be wise to not trust any phenomenon which blows up online, given the ease of generating such a phenomenon artificially.

Yet the democratic candidates that have announced seem to be chasing online mindshare at this point, moving further and further left in order to attract vocal Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders fans, with unclear results.

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#36

Post by bryanlarsen »

nutjob2 wrote: post #8

This is entirely meaningless at this point in the race. There may be some enthusiasts paying attention right now, and they're prone to focusing on particular candidates, but a more likely bet is that most primary voters are waiting to see how candidates perform with a view to backing the best candidate who has the best chance of winning.

To get into the debates, candidates need to either raise a bunch of money across a bunch of states, or poll above 1%

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-how-were-defining...

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#37

Post by objektif »

nickparker wrote: post #24

I don't know if this applies to BetChecker, but PredictIt is heavily handicapped by an $850 max bet. Without the freedom for real amounts of money to come in and exploit mispriced bets, it's practically a straw poll of PredictIt users. The PredictIt user base has some obvious demographic biases that warp the odds.

There is a counter argument for this as people with a lot of money will drives the results one way which can actually impact elections. Nkt that I buy this argument but something to keep in mind.

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#38

Post by dragonwriter »

WhompingWindows wrote: post #19

Does anyone here have thoughts about the quality of candidates as it relates to their ages (i.e. comparing late 70's Bernie/Biden and these younger candidates)? While I like the policies of Bernie, for instance, I ideally would prefer someone who doesn't have a high % likelihood of serious medical issues in the next 4 years of their life. Is there an age that is too old to be a CEO/President/Senator/leading figure? A…

> Is there an age that is too old to be a CEO/President/Senator/leading figure?

Not really.

> Are they necessarily out of touch, lacking in resiliency, not forward-looking, or any of the factors we look for in our leaders?

No; The statistical probability may be higher with age, but we don't elect an age and get a random person of that age as a leader, so that's not important. Filtering for that is what election campaigns, executive search processes, etc., are for.

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#39

Post by aaomidi »

mtgx wrote: post #31
bryanlarsen wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

VP choice makes a bigger difference for an older candidate, which might be why rumors are that Biden will be choosing his running mate very early in the process.

Bernie/Buttigieg 2020?

This would be good - or Bernie/Beto for that Texas vote.

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#40

Post by scott_s »

Who is participating in the betting markets? Are these people perhaps more likely to personally like certain candidates more than others? When the market is relatively small, this question matters. I'm skeptical of the betting markets for this reason, as I think the participants skew heavily to a particular demographic.
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