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India will overtake the US economy by 2030

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Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#31

Post by dragontamer »

aaaaaaaaaaab wrote: post #26
gandhium wrote: post #5

Maybe they will or maybe not. I can remember similar predictions about Japan and... let's say they didn't make it.

Why was this comment downvoted to death? Remember the huge geisha advert in the 1982 Blade Runner? People were extrapolating from decades of Japanese economic growth, and thought that Japan will leave everyone behind...

You don't even need to enter the realm of sci fi actually.

"Gung Ho" (1986) and "Die Hard" (1988) both feature Japanese corporate overlords doing things as core elements of the plot. Not necessarily evil, its just kinda assumed that Japan would take over large parts of even the US Economy back then.

Japan's "economic miracle", although it was cut short by the 1990s, was an incredible rise. Japan is still one of the major world economic powers, in large part due to its humongous growth.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#32

Post by bdod6 »

pacala wrote: post #6

Wildly speculative. Turkey is predicted to have 9.1 [some unit], while Germany 6.8 [some unit]. There are two countries with similar demographic profiles, with Germany having 5x the [nominal] GDP of Turkey today. Short of nuclear war or an asteroid landing in Ruhrgebiet, it's hard to imagine what would lead to Turkey's economy overtaking Germany's in 11 years. PS. "nominal GDP using purchasing power parity exchange r…

A lot of that speculative growth comes from Turkey's comparatively younger population (hence more productive hours worked each day), and their continued population growth. Germany's demographics are sliding the other way, with an aging and stagnating population.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#33

Post by selfselfself »

olcor wrote: post #27
screye wrote: post #21

Is this the new superpower 2020? I have heard the same horn be tooted in India over the last 2 decades, and India is no closer to the that goal than it was 2 decades ago. The problems India faces can't be solved in 20 years. 1 generation for that is too little. I do however think that India will undergo a massive push ahead the second we have a few cities where expats can return to without incurring a major loss in Q…

> where expats can return to without incurring a major loss in QOL or effective wages. I’m moving back to India soon (NYC -> Mumbai). My quality of life will likely increase; wages will not even be close (savings rate might be the same though). Which cities are on your mind for this?

In 2014-2015, if you were a PM / SR PM at Amazon/Google/FB and moved to Bangalore, you would've gotten a Director (at large tech companies) or VP role (at mature startups) easily and would've made the about the same comp as you were making the US. Not sure what the situation is now.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#34

Post by benj111 »

outlace wrote: post #19
cromwellian wrote: post #11

As Andrew Yang has pointed out, GDP is a pretty poor measurement, and at least in China's case, not transparent and most likely inflated by localities self-reporting to meet central government targets. GDP is proportional to population, so if you have a larger population, your GDP can be proportionately larger. The question is, what's GDP per capita or GDP per capita PPP? China per capita GDP is 1/7th-1/8th of the US…

But if current dominant country A has GDP of 100 units and rival country B is poised to get to 150 units, then won't country B be able to wield more economic power than country A even though country B's GDP/person is lower? It's sort of like a company that has 100 units of revenue and 20 units of costs versus a company with 150 units of revenue and 90 units of cost, the one with greater revenue may still have more ec…

Agreed, if you want some idea of quality of life, GDP probably isn't the best.

If you want to measure who has the most resources either to potentially trade with them, or decide if you have the resources to fight them, GDP becomes more useful.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#35

Post by puranjay »

I know I'm in the minority, but in terms of household income, most of my peers are already at American levels in absolute dollar figures (> $85-100k) here in India.

I've also found that US-based clients are far less skeptical of my skills than they used to be half a decade ago, and that they are also willing to pay US rates for quality work (as opposed to expecting third world rates)

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#36

Post by thisgoodlife »

cromwellian wrote: post #11

As Andrew Yang has pointed out, GDP is a pretty poor measurement, and at least in China's case, not transparent and most likely inflated by localities self-reporting to meet central government targets. GDP is proportional to population, so if you have a larger population, your GDP can be proportionately larger. The question is, what's GDP per capita or GDP per capita PPP? China per capita GDP is 1/7th-1/8th of the US…

Luxembourg and Macao have much higher GDP per capita than the US. But I don't think they are more economically influential than the US or China.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#37

Post by baybal2 »

olcor wrote: post #27
screye wrote: post #21

Is this the new superpower 2020? I have heard the same horn be tooted in India over the last 2 decades, and India is no closer to the that goal than it was 2 decades ago. The problems India faces can't be solved in 20 years. 1 generation for that is too little. I do however think that India will undergo a massive push ahead the second we have a few cities where expats can return to without incurring a major loss in Q…

> where expats can return to without incurring a major loss in QOL or effective wages. I’m moving back to India soon (NYC -> Mumbai). My quality of life will likely increase; wages will not even be close (savings rate might be the same though). Which cities are on your mind for this?

This is a bit like mine rationality of going to China. Any income above $3k gives you a lifestyle you can't imagine in any Western tech hub, but more importantly ability and talent is more important here (don't laugh.) In overall, the industry is in better shape here, and the tech scene is not just a stock/bond market extension yet.

I'm not a Western nation national, so for me, going to the West again (I lived in Canada for 6 years,) will involve going through visa troubles, and be looked upon like on an idiot by every official for the duration of my stay. And not to say, you will have that "cheap labourer" stigma on you.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#38

Post by zaptheimpaler »

point78 wrote: post #2

Not hard to do when you don't respect the intellectual property of anyone and close off your market

As concerns about US competitiveness in the global economy are ramping up, they are placing import tariffs promoting an "America First” strategy with the express goal of protecting domestic production from cheap imports! Sounds an awful lot like "closing off your market". Maybe both US & China just like the idea of free trade when it benefits them, not so much when it doesn't. Like every other country.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#40

Post by dnene »

This article is somewhat misleading. Although the image caption says Nominal GDP, the bottom of the image says the GDP is in PPP terms.

AFAIK the most optimistic estimates make India the second largest economy in nominal terms measured by exchange rate no earlier than 2050.

India is expected to be growing pretty fast. But nowhere close to the rate which would be needed for this to be true in currency exchange rate terms. PPP terms really doesn't mean much.

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