Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm • Hacker News Board

Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm

#31

Post by paganel » Sat, Mar 02, 2019, 9:22 AM UTC

_the_inflator wrote: post #24

l4u532 wrote: post #8

As a German, I am quite happy about this. What you must know is that German organisations are extremely hierarchical, with little information flowing from frontline management to to top management. Hence, change only happens top down and only if the top managers in their ivory towers deem it necessary. But it’s incredibly important that our automakers reinvent themselves. And here we have the necessary angst to drive…

Absolutely second that as a German as well. Disruption is desperately needed and I am glad that a 16 year old company kicks the German complacency out of business. Reinvention? What sort of? They don't get software, they don't get new business models. That's why they stick to politics who should save their models - which is protectionism. Germany's car makers were never customer first. What kind of innovation did Ger…

> What kind of innovation did Germany establish besides ABS?

Not sure why you got downvoted, afaik the most important technological breakthroughs when it came to cars in Europe were made by the Italians (Fiat, mostly, but Alfa Romeo too), the French (the Citroen DS is one of the best technological products ever) and the Swedes (Volvo and its emphasis on security). Somehow the Germans navigated the ‘90s and early 2000s a little better, not sure exactly why (maybe because they invested in China earlier?), and that’s why right now they’re seen as the car companies to beat.

Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm

#32

Post by ahartmetz » Sat, Mar 02, 2019, 9:33 AM UTC

paganel wrote: post #31

_the_inflator wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely second that as a German as well. Disruption is desperately needed and I am glad that a 16 year old company kicks the German complacency out of business. Reinvention? What sort of? They don't get software, they don't get new business models. That's why they stick to politics who should save their models - which is protectionism. Germany's car makers were never customer first. What kind of innovation did Ger…

> What kind of innovation did Germany establish besides ABS? Not sure why you got downvoted, afaik the most important technological breakthroughs when it came to cars in Europe were made by the Italians (Fiat, mostly, but Alfa Romeo too), the French (the Citroen DS is one of the best technological products ever) and the Swedes (Volvo and its emphasis on security). Somehow the Germans navigated the ‘90s and early 2000…

They have design and feel figured out. Somehow the rest of the world mostly doesn't produce cars with as nice interior and exterior design or that are as fun to drive.

Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm

#33

Post by xcvvv » Sat, Mar 02, 2019, 9:39 AM UTC

_the_inflator wrote: post #24

l4u532 wrote: post #8

As a German, I am quite happy about this. What you must know is that German organisations are extremely hierarchical, with little information flowing from frontline management to to top management. Hence, change only happens top down and only if the top managers in their ivory towers deem it necessary. But it’s incredibly important that our automakers reinvent themselves. And here we have the necessary angst to drive…

Absolutely second that as a German as well. Disruption is desperately needed and I am glad that a 16 year old company kicks the German complacency out of business. Reinvention? What sort of? They don't get software, they don't get new business models. That's why they stick to politics who should save their models - which is protectionism. Germany's car makers were never customer first. What kind of innovation did Ger…

While there are probably horrible bureaucratic structures in Germany's car industry, I think this comment isn't quite fair.

Mercedes and BMW are still very nice to drive in. The issue is more that German's generally don't believe in fads, and self-driving cars are one of them.

I just don't want a self driving car, which takes away the last bit of fun of sitting in a metal box: Being in charge of where the damn box goes.

Germans just have a higher bar for "innovation": It has to be useful.

Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm

#34

Post by lazyjones » Sat, Mar 02, 2019, 9:40 AM UTC

paganel wrote: post #31

_the_inflator wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely second that as a German as well. Disruption is desperately needed and I am glad that a 16 year old company kicks the German complacency out of business. Reinvention? What sort of? They don't get software, they don't get new business models. That's why they stick to politics who should save their models - which is protectionism. Germany's car makers were never customer first. What kind of innovation did Ger…

> What kind of innovation did Germany establish besides ABS? Not sure why you got downvoted, afaik the most important technological breakthroughs when it came to cars in Europe were made by the Italians (Fiat, mostly, but Alfa Romeo too), the French (the Citroen DS is one of the best technological products ever) and the Swedes (Volvo and its emphasis on security). Somehow the Germans navigated the ‘90s and early 2000…

> afaik the most important technological breakthroughs when it came to cars in Europe were made by the Italians

Carl Benz - invented and patented the first "motorcar"

Gottfried Daimler - also independently built an automobile the same year as Benz.

Siegfried Marcus - 131 patents, first petrol-powered vehicle.

etc.

Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm

#35

Post by ReptileMan » Sat, Mar 02, 2019, 9:54 AM UTC

FullyFunctional wrote: post #18

clouddrover wrote: post #3

Perfect storms aside, I think Volkswagen will be the biggest producer of EVs within 3 years. They're targeting the high end with the Porsche Taycan, the Porsche Macan EV, and the future Audi e-tron GT which will be based on the Taycan's platform: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-double-taycan-ev-... https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-macan-electric-on... Volkswagen's MEB platform targets mid-range v…

All these Tesla competitors ... they are not really competitors unless they offer access to the Super Charger Network or provide something similar. More than anything the Super Charger is a game changer. Even though I very very rarely uses it, it enables the occasional long distance trip, making it practical to own just an EV and not need a 2nd car (or rent one)

Since both CCS and CHADEMO are viable (and I think better than supercharger) and have support, building chargers is embarrassingly paralel if you have the capital, you could cover whole of US in a couple of months.

Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm

#36

Post by mk89 » Sat, Mar 02, 2019, 9:58 AM UTC

paganel wrote: post #31

_the_inflator wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely second that as a German as well. Disruption is desperately needed and I am glad that a 16 year old company kicks the German complacency out of business. Reinvention? What sort of? They don't get software, they don't get new business models. That's why they stick to politics who should save their models - which is protectionism. Germany's car makers were never customer first. What kind of innovation did Ger…

> What kind of innovation did Germany establish besides ABS? Not sure why you got downvoted, afaik the most important technological breakthroughs when it came to cars in Europe were made by the Italians (Fiat, mostly, but Alfa Romeo too), the French (the Citroen DS is one of the best technological products ever) and the Swedes (Volvo and its emphasis on security). Somehow the Germans navigated the ‘90s and early 2000…

Did you ever drive a German car (not necessarily a Mercedes, even a simple VW Polo) vs a non German car? Seriously, that's the reason. Quality.

You can be as innovative as you wish, but if you are cheap and provide low quality products, that's what you get. Eventually someone is able to provide the same technology and then quality wins.

Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm

#37

Post by desdiv » Sat, Mar 02, 2019, 10:01 AM UTC

RickJWagner wrote: post #2

I don't like how the subtitle reads "American tariffs, a Chinese slowdown..." but the article text says "possible US tariffs". It seems misleading to lead with 'tariffs' when they are only 'possible tariffs'. Makes it seem click-baity.

"American tariffs" refers to the tariffs raised by President Donald J Trump against _China_ on March 22, 2018. This and the ensuring Chinese retaliatory tariffs has already taken effect for almost a year now and has already cost German car makers dearly:

>China’s 40 percent retaliatory tariffs on US car imports has already cost the Bavarian company €300 million ($340 million).

=====================================

"Possible US tariffs" refers to tariffs on imported cars and parts being considered against _all countries_[0]. These tariffs are separate and in addition to the Chinese tariffs.

>U.S. Commerce Department recommendations into whether Trump should impose tariffs of up to 25 percent on imported cars and parts on national security grounds are due by mid-February.

[0] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-trade/trump-incline...

Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm

#38

Post by lazyjones » Sat, Mar 02, 2019, 10:01 AM UTC

clouddrover wrote: post #3

Perfect storms aside, I think Volkswagen will be the biggest producer of EVs within 3 years. They're targeting the high end with the Porsche Taycan, the Porsche Macan EV, and the future Audi e-tron GT which will be based on the Taycan's platform: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-double-taycan-ev-... https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-macan-electric-on... Volkswagen's MEB platform targets mid-range v…

> Perfect storms aside, I think Volkswagen will be the biggest producer of EVs within 3 years.

What makes you think they stand a chance against Chinese manufacturers who face huge demand in their home market (whereas in Germany, EV are still looked down upon)? It looks like 60% of global PEV sales in 2019 will be in China - just look at all these models and manufacturers:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/24/china-electric-vehicle-...

Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm

#39

Post by dirtylowprofile » Sat, Mar 02, 2019, 10:14 AM UTC

ahartmetz wrote: post #10

l4u532 wrote: post #8

As a German, I am quite happy about this. What you must know is that German organisations are extremely hierarchical, with little information flowing from frontline management to to top management. Hence, change only happens top down and only if the top managers in their ivory towers deem it necessary. But it’s incredibly important that our automakers reinvent themselves. And here we have the necessary angst to drive…

Not all German organizations are like that. The car industry is especially dysfunctional. I've been watching them fail at software for years now. The problem, as far as I can tell, is as follows: top management is able and motivated to increase the size of the money bag. Developers just want to do a good job for a good salary. Middle management can't change the size of the money bag too much, so it just wants to grab…

I wonder what’s the majority of the source code in German like? Is it mostly in English or German?

Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm

#40

Post by clouddrover » Sat, Mar 02, 2019, 10:14 AM UTC

lazyjones wrote: post #38

clouddrover wrote: post #3

Perfect storms aside, I think Volkswagen will be the biggest producer of EVs within 3 years. They're targeting the high end with the Porsche Taycan, the Porsche Macan EV, and the future Audi e-tron GT which will be based on the Taycan's platform: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-double-taycan-ev-... https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-macan-electric-on... Volkswagen's MEB platform targets mid-range v…

> Perfect storms aside, I think Volkswagen will be the biggest producer of EVs within 3 years. What makes you think they stand a chance against Chinese manufacturers who face huge demand in their home market (whereas in Germany, EV are still looked down upon)? It looks like 60% of global PEV sales in 2019 will be in China - just look at all these models and manufacturers: https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/24/china-el…

Because the world car market is bigger than just China, because Volkswagen is the world's second biggest car company, and because VW is big enough to spend its way out of trouble (which is what it's doing now).