Wanted: Cofounder for YC S19. Robotic Tunnel Delivery of Groceries/food/packages • Hacker News Board

Re: Wanted: Cofounder for YC S19. Robotic Tunnel Delivery of Groceries/food/packages

#31

Post by Praxey » Mon, Feb 11, 2019, 5:03 PM UTC

tuberelay wrote: post #8

tuberelay wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Air drones - loud, need to be pretty big and noisy to lift larger payloads eg. groceries. In order to cover use cases of food/grocery/package delivery across a city and surrounding suburbs there would be a constant stream of high powered drones whirring through major areas and around streets/footpaths. I don't think this would be acceptable to the public at scale. Self-driving footpath size delivery vehicles - people…

A bit more about the economics of this: Assuming each person in a city has: - a postal/courier package delivered every 2 days - a grocery delivery every 3 days - a takeaway/food delivery every 4 days This means on average overall each person gets 1 delivery per day. Assuming delivery cost of $2 per delivery, this means in a city of 1 million people there is $2 million daily revenue for operators of this, or $700 mill…

To do this you would need buy in from all the legacy carriers first. It doesn't work without having them all as your partners, so you get the economy of scale you need. That will be very difficult. Next, you need to consider your own operating costs. How are these vehicles going to be powered? Routed? You will still need to sort and distribute the packages. What if one breaks down in route? How are you going to lift them back up onto the surface? Are you planning to retrofit buildings with tubes going down into your network? Or distribute in/out terminals throughout the city? Both which would require an insane amount of upfront politicking and planning. There will be issues of easements, zoning, and liability to work out. Then, even if you get all the players to agree to your plan, which is unlikely, you still need to deliver the package at a (significantly) lower cost structure than they currently are able to do with government subsidized roads.

Re: Wanted: Cofounder for YC S19. Robotic Tunnel Delivery of Groceries/food/packages

#32

Post by SamReidHughes » Mon, Feb 11, 2019, 7:21 PM UTC

heyjudy wrote: post #16

SamReidHughes wrote: post #2

If you can pull this off please wire everybody up for fiber while you're at it.

There's plenty of dark fiber in numerous metros thanks to the dotcom times, the main issue is last mile premise deployment and the cost of labor involved. You can't miracle away those costs to miraculously hook everyone up without spending billions sans a profit model.

With efficient tunneling you can have efficient wiring. The last mile problem becomes a last chain problem.

Re: Wanted: Cofounder for YC S19. Robotic Tunnel Delivery of Groceries/food/packages

#33

Post by lgregg » Mon, Feb 11, 2019, 8:28 PM UTC

S4M wrote: post #28

tuberelay wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) 700mm diameter - broken down vehicles should be shuntable, but a person could get in there reasonably easily. 2) helium blimps lift 1 gram per litre of helium, so to lift 10kg of groceries they would need a 10 cubic meter blimp or a 2.7 meter diameter sphere - seems big and difficult to control especially in winds.

A person could get in a pipe of 700mm diameter? I seriously doubt it.

It's a tight fit but works. I would have to put one arm forward and one arm back to shift my shoulders for a torpedo tube (approx 21in or 533mm depending on nation). 700mm is another 6 inches. The average male's shoulder width is about 18 and go wide as 24 inches (often hard core weight lifters).

https://www.google.com/search?q=person+in+a+torpedo+tube&tbm...

Re: Wanted: Cofounder for YC S19. Robotic Tunnel Delivery of Groceries/food/packages

#34

Post by gitgud » Tue, Feb 12, 2019, 1:56 AM UTC

macp wrote: post #13

tuberelay wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Air drones - loud, need to be pretty big and noisy to lift larger payloads eg. groceries. In order to cover use cases of food/grocery/package delivery across a city and surrounding suburbs there would be a constant stream of high powered drones whirring through major areas and around streets/footpaths. I don't think this would be acceptable to the public at scale. Self-driving footpath size delivery vehicles - people…

Why underground? Could it work in above ground pipes? How big would be the packages and robotic vehicles? Packages, grocery, and food bring different requirements in terms of delivery speed and size, which could lead to different solutions--some easier to address than others. What is the pain point and most desperate customers for each?

I agree, tunnels below ground have the disadvantages of:

- expensive to bore out

- cannot be changed

- expensive to maintain

Above ground pipes would allow for easier maintenance and a much cheaper roll-out. Crazy but could be worth looking into existing infrastructure like power cable routes etc..

Re: Wanted: Cofounder for YC S19. Robotic Tunnel Delivery of Groceries/food/packages

#35

Post by gitgud » Tue, Feb 12, 2019, 1:59 AM UTC

tuberelay wrote: post #22

heyjudy wrote: post #15

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but to think critically and not fall in love with an idea more than reality. TBH, sounds capex intensive and there must be reason(s) why it was abandoned, i.e., cost to hookup areas and inflexibility of rigid, expensive infrastructure deployed such that it's not scalable for the profit that it could generate... if Manhattan, HK and Tokyo don't use it anymore, why now?

why now: - tunnelling tech has come a long way - pipejacking means you can install hundreds of metres of pipes from a single hole without digging a trench. Horizontal direct drilling means the chinese can put a 600mm diameter pipe spanning 3kms under the yangtze river from a single access point. - lithium batteries and vehicle routing tech means that small delivery vehicles can do their jobs at incredible speed and e…

Sure it's possible, but how expensive are those underground pipes? To payback the cost of installing those would take a huge amount of food deliveries right? Doesn't sound profitable at first glance anyway

Re: Wanted: Cofounder for YC S19. Robotic Tunnel Delivery of Groceries/food/packages

#36

Post by treis » Tue, Feb 12, 2019, 7:22 PM UTC

tuberelay wrote: post #22

heyjudy wrote: post #15

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but to think critically and not fall in love with an idea more than reality. TBH, sounds capex intensive and there must be reason(s) why it was abandoned, i.e., cost to hookup areas and inflexibility of rigid, expensive infrastructure deployed such that it's not scalable for the profit that it could generate... if Manhattan, HK and Tokyo don't use it anymore, why now?

why now: - tunnelling tech has come a long way - pipejacking means you can install hundreds of metres of pipes from a single hole without digging a trench. Horizontal direct drilling means the chinese can put a 600mm diameter pipe spanning 3kms under the yangtze river from a single access point. - lithium batteries and vehicle routing tech means that small delivery vehicles can do their jobs at incredible speed and e…

How do you avoid tunneling through existing utilities?

Re: Wanted: Cofounder for YC S19. Robotic Tunnel Delivery of Groceries/food/packages

#37

Post by marcell » Tue, Feb 12, 2019, 8:44 PM UTC

I've been thinking about this idea over the past few months. My main thought is whether it passes muster in terms of economics. Revenue can be estimated as a multiple, say, FedEx or UPS revenue. Maybe it would be 2-5x of whatever those do now, to account for the increased convenience. Do you have any rough ideas on what the cost would be?

Also, another big issue is permitting. Which govt bodies would have to issue a permit to allow underground tunnels? Eg. I if I want to build some tunnels under Palo Alto, who has to approve it?