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Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.
31–40 of 57 posts
Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.
#32Maciej Ceglowski had a similar, if less grandiose, site called Wrong Tomorrow, but it looks like it's down: http://wrongtomorrow.com/ I don't know if the site is only temporarily down, or if it's been abandoned, but it's a shame if the latter. The idea behind Wrong Tomorrow was chiefly to hold pundits accountable for their frequently bad predictions. You can read his site announcement, where he explicitly mentions si…
It was a brilliant idea, but waiting five years just to prove pundits wrong depletes my strategic reserves of spite.
Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
In the general case, I agree with you. However, everyone knows what 'RESTful urls' and 'RESTful apis' mean, it's just that it's not the original recipe REST. For better or worse, the definition has changed. It's still effective communication, because you know I'm contrasting '/bets/1' with 'index.aspx?action=displayBet&bet_id=1&' (which still could be quite RESTful, actually...), and a form that POSTs to '/bets' vs.…
In this case I'd opt for "clean" as a better word for what you're trying to describe. I'd have thought everyone understands what a clean URL is without bringing across all the extra baggage/meaning of calling it RESTful.
In this case, you're probably right.
I'm usually discussing this more fully, as in "RESTful API vs. SOAP" or the actual nitty-gritty of POST vs PUT requests and such. "clean" works much better in this context, though, thanks. I'll file that one away...
I'm one of those puritans who cries a bit inside myself.
Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.
#34I would love to see (or not see) how the predictor wins this bet,long bet making a decision and awards the stake.
“Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.”
Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.
#35Is it just me or did this seem completely inevitable and kind of on the cusp by 2002? We were building fileserver-based VOD services just to save our Internet connection from the torrenting masses in shared housing situations around this time. This seems like a risky one to bet against, at least from a technical perspective. I suppose it is true that it was still a pretty open question whether anyone would manage to…
Technically do-able, but: It could have easily been derailed the studios wanting to try and run the business themselves, ISPs who are also cable companies throttling it, national broadcasters lobbying to block it legally. It also said profitable - I thought even Amazon wasn't profitable yet?
A quick google says that Netflix is profitable. I don't know if Netflix Instant would be if analyzed separately, though.
Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.
#36Esther Dyson's bet "By 2012, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times will have referred to Russia as "the world leader in software development" or words to that effect." http://www.longbets.org/5 The Computer History Museum gets $10,000 if she loses, I guess they should start planning an exhibit on old Russian computer technology. But to be less smug for a moment why anyone would think this is beyond me. While…
It's a stronger bet than it first sounds, although probably not in the way the author intended. Russia doesn't actually have to be the world leader in software development, they just have to be referred to as such by a news organization. Considering the linkbait trends in modern journalism, the following headline wouldn't surprise me, regardless of what the ground truth is: "Russia: The World's New Leader in Software Development?"
Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.
#37Earlier quoted context omitted.
Amusing - but a car with 2 passengers going at a conservative 30MPH is very different to a plane flying 9KM over the ground at 567MPH. I'm just hoping that in 80 years I won't be alive to see my comment becoming horribly wrong, with people laughing at it while a processor flies them across the world.
I guess the biggest problems will be the legal framework and the power of unions. Technically flying a plane should be easier for a computer than driving a car.
Where a computer fails is when judgment is required. For example, you have an in-air emergency, and are going to have to crash land. What do you pick to crash land on to?
Consider Captain Sully's recent decisions in just such an emergency.
Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.
#38Esther Dyson's bet "By 2012, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times will have referred to Russia as "the world leader in software development" or words to that effect." http://www.longbets.org/5 The Computer History Museum gets $10,000 if she loses, I guess they should start planning an exhibit on old Russian computer technology. But to be less smug for a moment why anyone would think this is beyond me. While…
Keep in mind that in 2002, Russia seemed to be hand-in-hand with India when it came to outsourcing software dev. It might be a weak bet now, but was stronger when it was made. Wrong, but still stronger.
Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.
#39Is it just me or did this seem completely inevitable and kind of on the cusp by 2002? We were building fileserver-based VOD services just to save our Internet connection from the torrenting masses in shared housing situations around this time. This seems like a risky one to bet against, at least from a technical perspective. I suppose it is true that it was still a pretty open question whether anyone would manage to…
Even most of the original commentators, back in 02002, thought it was easily doable.
Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.
#40I like the RESTful urls, check out bet #1: http://www.longbets.org/1 We've got a while, but it feels like an appropriate bet.
What happens if the organization the money is going to be donated is not still around then?