It’s probably time to learn Chinese

Largest market you cant sell to, unless you manufacture locally in a joint venture majority owned by someone connected to the ruling party.

Sure, if it's just about broadening your mind picking a language that's far away from yours is the best choice. But considering China's importance as a potential market it's probably not relevant for you as a tech person, but rather for your company's sales people and decision makers. And even then, China's English skills are probably only getting better over time.

My experience regarding English in Asia was similar to yours. Actually I feel like China is doing slightly better regarding English. The average college student there is able to have simple conversation. In Japan, most struggled to express the most basic things. Obviously, outside of these circles you're completely lost in both counties. Except this odd experience in one McDonald's in Beijing where they had one lady on staff that spoke perfect English. I don't know if China is putting more emphasis on teaching English, or it's because more Chinese students spend time abroad (not just in absolute numbers obviously).

Where would you rather live and work: a random African country, or China? Does this answer change in 50 years?

That's a very interesting point. The reason that languages spoken in more countries matters is because there's more room for experimentation. Not to mention more need due to multiple bureaucracies, less streamlined arrangements. Many Europeans suggest to me that Europe was great when each nation was competing, rather than attempting to collaborate. You lose something when you unify. China is very unified in this sense. Yet I think it's also fair to say that the era of nation-state experimentation has already either bore its fruits (or not). We've had hundreds of years of modern states to find their way, the majority (but not all) with a conducive culture to economic success have already achieved it. The top 10 GDP list is almost always consisting of European nations, (Pan-)American nations, India from West Asia and much of Northeast Asia.

Of course, many countries are encouraging English learning, and I think a lot of former French colonies are interested in moving towards English, but after English (59 countries), there is French (29), Arabic (26), Spanish (20), and Portuguese (9). Some of my best friends are "Arabic" speakers, and they're from the heart of the land (Saudi Arabia) and tell me there is not a single "Arabic" language that all nations can entirely mutually understand, so I'm convinced of the validity of that one entirely. Spanish and Portuguese nations definitely have mutual intelligibility and seem very steadfast in maintaining their languages.

I would agree with your general point for sure that an unflinching statement like "Mandarin is objectively going to be the most useful" is more of a flimsy limb, given more information and taking looks from additional perspectives.

If I had to bet my life on a language being the "most useful" going forward, I'm putting my hide on English. I think if Mandarin being most useful were true, it would already be an unquestionable statement today. Not sure how an already mostly-risen power like China has one of it's two languages (and not the one spoken in Hong Kong) become "more useful" tomorrow than it is today, and it's not an especially useful language right now outside of China. I wouldn't even venture to say it's #2 by many metrics.

China and it's official language, Mandarin, have a lot of hype about domination and influence, considering it's a relatively insular culture. Flat statements on the Mandarin topic are tough to swallow. My guess is outside of government interactions, Chinese business will place Chinese management and even Chinese workers in their enterprises, if at all possible[0]. They won't need John Doe to speak Mandarin, nor will that person really even be desirable. Those people are learning English and they prefer their own.

[0]https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/11/06/absolute-fraud-...

Most people are going to think because China is more advanced in ways, or some sort of admiration for Chinese history and ethnic creations, that the obvious answer is China. I would disagree. Outside of a few war-torn failed states, a random African country for me.

Not as many stories about people jumping out of factory windows to end their lives in Africa. There are many hidden gems in Africa as well with perfect climates and cultures that have little to no thievery or need for distrust. These things aren't well-known or stereotypical because Africa is dismissed outright so quickly by so many without further investigation, but it's true anyway.

In 50 years, I think this will remain true and Africa becomes even more desirable yet than China. If you want to work, or want your less fortunate children to work at Foxconn pumping out iPhones with management practices that westerners cannot even imagine at this point in their history, China may be an option if they'd even welcome you. Of course everyone assumes they'll be the boss at the desk browsing HN or scrolling through Facebook during the workday instead, generally enjoying the good life.

Africa. This isn't even a contest.