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Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

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Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#31

And no one should be surprised by this. The NN advancement of late doesn't help addressing human-style symbolic reasoning at all. All we have is a much more powerful function approximator with a drastic increased capacity (very deep networks with billions of parameters) and scalable training scheme (SGD and its variants). Such architecture works great for differentiable data, such's images/audios, but the improvement…

Are there ways that an AI practitioner would be able to tell whether a neural network is doing human-style symbolic reasoning?

As mentioned in the original article, being able to reuse part of a network trained on one task, on another different task that shares a subset of concepts, would indicate something like the understanding of a concept has emerged.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#32

I'm not even convinced that a real AI is possible with conventional computer hardware or anything remotely similar to it. Not even considering software I get the impression there is a fundamental limitation of hardware.

I'm not convinced we've even defined the problem space well enough to solve it. Like what is the concrete measure(something to target) for intelligence? If we develop general intelligence is it going to be human, dog, or fish?

I'm not convinced any of those creatures have general intelligence. I'm similarly unconvinced that we'd recognise general intelligence if we saw it.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#33

Tangential: This title is weird. As if no one but the top minds in AI didn't know this? This isn't big news to anyone who has done even just a modicum of AI research.

What makes you so confident that you’d say “anyone who’s done a modicum of AI research” would come to the same conclusion as you?

Also, do you believe AGI is currently more a compute/hardware problem, or an algorithmic problem?

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#34

And no one should be surprised by this. The NN advancement of late doesn't help addressing human-style symbolic reasoning at all. All we have is a much more powerful function approximator with a drastic increased capacity (very deep networks with billions of parameters) and scalable training scheme (SGD and its variants). Such architecture works great for differentiable data, such's images/audios, but the improvement…

Hmm, it seems like natural language translation has been getting quite a bit better with statistical techniques, though? I guess it depends what you mean by "only incremental".

Statistically, but it is a shallow translation, with no modelling of what is said. This works astonishly well for translation, but gives the false intuition that it is meaningful; whereas it is in fact orthogonal to advancing in systems that comprehend a text so as to be able to reason their way out of winograd problems.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not convinced we've even defined the problem space well enough to solve it. Like what is the concrete measure(something to target) for intelligence? If we develop general intelligence is it going to be human, dog, or fish?

I'm not convinced any of those creatures have general intelligence. I'm similarly unconvinced that we'd recognise general intelligence if we saw it.

Are humans even capable of general intelligence? I feel like the philosophical question of determinism vs free will is unsolvable.

The baseline of human capability would definitely still be impressive.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#36

And no one should be surprised by this. The NN advancement of late doesn't help addressing human-style symbolic reasoning at all. All we have is a much more powerful function approximator with a drastic increased capacity (very deep networks with billions of parameters) and scalable training scheme (SGD and its variants). Such architecture works great for differentiable data, such's images/audios, but the improvement…

Maaaaybe. I tend to think that symbolic reasoning is a learning tool, rather than a goalpost for general intelligence. For example, we use symbolic reasoning quite extensively when learning to read a new language, but once fluent can rely on something closer to raw processing - no more reading and sounding out character sequences. Similarly with chess - eventually we have good mnemonics for what make good plays, and can play blitz reasonably well.

And - let's be real - a lot of human symbolic reasoning actually happens outside of the brain, on paper or computer screens. We painstakingly learn relatively simple transformations and feedback loops for manipulating this external memory, and then bootstrap it into short-term reaction via lots of practice.

I tend to think that the problems are: a) Tightly defined / domain-specific loss functions. If all I ever do is ask you to identify pictures of bananas, you'll never get around to writing the great american novel. And we don't know how to train the kinds of adaptive or free form loss functions that would get us away from these domain-specific losses.

b) Similarly, I have a soft-spot for the view that a mind is only as good as its set of inputs. We currently mostly build models that are only receptive (image, sound) or generative. Reinforcement learning is getting progress on feedback loops, but I have the sense that there's still a long way to go.

c) I have the feeling that there's still a long way to go in understanding how to deal with time...

d) As great as LSTMs are, there still seems to be some shortcoming in how to incorporate memory into networks. LSTMs seem to give a decent approximation of short-term memory, but still seems far from great. This might be the key to symbolic reasoning, though.

Writing all that down, I gotta say I agree fundamentally with the DeepMind research priorities on reinforcement learning and multi-modal models.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#37
post #8

Behind every successful neural network is a human brain. Neural networks are a tool, an advanced tool for sure, but still just a tool. If we are looking for AGI, and assuming the brain is an AGI, then there are still many differences to resolve. For example, back propagation has not been observed in nature. Nor has gradient descent. So the core mechanisms for learning in nature have still to reveal their secrets.

> Behind every successful neural network is a human brain. I've spent a lot of time trying to explain this to people, that there is a confluence between the human brain and the machine, people tend to look at the machine separately, which is a mistake. When I say unequivocally, 'there is no such thing as machine intelligence', I just get blank stares.

Arguably, there are successful brains behind every successful brain, too. Every great innovator and thinker was building off the backs of numerous other thinkers and teachers in their life. Should we be surprised that it's much easier for a tool+human(s) to do better than a tool alone, given we also expect a single human + human(s) as colleagues to do much better? Never mind the whole learning/development process, during which 22+ years of dedicated effort by adults to shape/craft a functional human worker.

Overall, I'd agree that really powerful tools for specific tasks is going to be the majority of "AI" in the coming years.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#38

Tangential: This title is weird. As if no one but the top minds in AI didn't know this? This isn't big news to anyone who has done even just a modicum of AI research.

Maybe it's for the people who haven't, so that they don't give all their money to Eliezer Yudkowsky.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#39

Not to mention that we don't even know if general intelligence exists. All we know is that mental abilities tend to correlate, but not why they tend to correlate. And if you think about designing machines, in general, the idea of general intelligence is utterly ridiculous. Does a fast car have general speediness? Of course not, it has dozens or hundreds of discrete optimizations that all contribute in some degree to…

I'm not sure you and the OP mean the same thing by "General Intelligence". It seems clear that autonomous systems which can apply their computational machinery to a diverse range of problems, and can, in a diverse range of settings, formulate instrumental goals as part of a plan to attain a final goal, do exist. Because that's what humans are, at least some of the time.

But if human performance in these regards never exceeded what the pinnacle of today's AI performance is, we would not regard them as intelligent in a general sense, either.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#40
post #19
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Roger Penrose basically suggests what you say in "The Emperor's New Mind". Roughly, it says that the brain (likely, according to him) uses quantum computation, and so we can't make an AI out of a classical computer. The practical flaw with this argument, of course, is that you could instead make an AI that itself uses quantum computation. I asked Roger Penrose about this at a university philosophy meetup over 20 year…

Well, quantum computation is weaker than a nondeterministic Turing machine, so not the same thing I'm saying. Penrose correctly identifies the mind cannot be a deterministic Turing machine, but his invocation of quantum mechanics does not solve the problem he points out. A DTM can simulate an NTM and hence anything inbetween, so the inbetween of quantum computation does not solve anything. The fundamental problem Pen…

>Hence, a halting oracle is the best explanation for the human mind

What does it explain though? That the human brain has a black box capable of solving certain problems... how exactly?

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