There's no such thing as a free watch (2017)

I love this! I commented on this article about my own experience starting a "watch business" when it was originally posted about a year ago and it seemed to get a decent amount of votes and attention so I figure I'll re-post it below:

[original w/comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15158422]

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So a few years back I started a watch company in a similar way.

I think I was actually one of the first to do it, since when I started I couldn't find many competitors. I tried a million kinds of promotions, from "free, you just pay for shipping" to offering people discounts and referral codes.

I actually created my own watch designs (well, modifications of the face, case, and strap with the same Chinese movement.) Some of my improvements started to be used by the manufacturers.

I'm not at all invested in it anymore: I left the business after selling a substantial, but not massive number of watches and finding that it wasn't terribly profitable if you included the cost of advertising, shipping, and (most importantly) my own time.

My own "watch company" was more real in a few ways: watches that I did in fact design myself, shipped from my address in the US, and the quality of the watches was actually quite good. To this day I wear a watch from my company and it has held up to an incredible amount of abuse. I say this as someone who (used to) collect watches. I also was upfront about the cost of shipping and the watch itself - I might have, for example, a banner that says "Free 3-Day US Shipping" and then the price of the watch would be clearly labeled as $20, so people would know that they would only be paying a total of $20 for the watch. The prices varied a lot over time, from $10 to $40 per watch, but surprisingly my profit was never huge even though I only spent about $3 on the watch itself and $7 on shipping.

If anyone's curious about the whole thing (and lives in the Netherlands) I still have hundreds of these watches and I'd be happy to sit down over a coffee, tell my stories from the business and show the watches. (My email's in my profile.)

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A few comments I'd like to add now, in 2018:

1) the watches (mine & that of other "companies") are of a surprisingly high quality in many cases. Not always, but often. For example, my watch has survived everything from bilge fluids to boiling water and it's the same cheap one I sold. Definitely far more durable than a comparable mechanical watch. I can see myself still using this thing 10+ years down the line. Furthermore, it actually does look classy and I get compliments on it. Most of the time, if you buy a cheap $3 Chinese alternative to something that's normally 10-1000x the price, it is neither beautiful nor durable.

2) The unexpectedly high quality of the watches is what fueled the explosion of sites IMO. You don't see "free earbuds", "free clock", or "free keyboard" sites, despite the fact that all 3 of these things are available for under $5 shipped from China. What I think happened is that people bought a watch on a whim, then it arrived and they realized "wow, this feels like a premium product!" Which it did! I was blown away when I first saw the quality level and instantly thought I should start a business. I suspect hundreds of other people had this same "eureka!" moment. When you get a $5 Aliexpress keyboard, it feels and looks like it cost $5 to make, and it excites nobody. Furthermore, Amazon makes a $13 keyboard with great reviews, and being Amazon it ships with Prime instead of "30-to-infinity day slow-boat-from-China shipping." Meanwhile, these watches felt like they cost at least $20 to make, and the only competitors for classy analog watches would be $50-100 or so, but they cost $3 (drop)shipped!

3) I highly doubt anyone made much money. When I started, dropshipping was not a thing the manufacturers offered (probably the reason why I was one of the first.) When manufacturers started offering dropshipping, these "businesses" exploded because you could suddenly run them entirely behind a laptop. The problem, of course, was that the number of such "companies" exploded, all competing for the same customers, Facebook ads, Google results, "underground marketing" spots, etc etc. That led to people getting a bit suspicious. If you saw one ad for a cool watch, maybe you were interested, but if you saw 20 in a week, all suspiciously similar, you'd think something's up.

>Participants are assumed to share equal information.

So any form of arbitrage is therefore impossible. Hang on a minute...

That's not a very charitable interpretation of the position, which I see to be along the lines of the fact that the economic mode of production in any given period reaches past mere individual transactions and into our whole mode of being, influencing everything from politics to art to religion.

The criticisms of capitalism, at least from a scientific standpoint, are not that people under capitalism are doing bad things, it's either that (i) under previous or potentially future modes of production there would be little or no incentive to do those things, (ii) capitalism has exacerbated the degree to which the behavior persists. The second part of the criticism is that capitalism is a class society, and thus rife with the antagonism that comes with class society in the form of "contradictions", which manifest themselves in capitalism as the contradiction of abstract and concrete labour, use-value and exchange value, capital and labour, price and value, culture and the commodity etc.

> It's why "capitalism" as practiced in countries where there are no stable legal systems tends to suck.

Indeed, countries without stable legal systems don't practice "capitalism", as defined e.g. by Adam Smith's work. At their best, they practice crony capitalism-- but that's not quite the same thing!

>No market is 100% efficient

Anyone who has ever bothered to watch an ad break will be less than surprised by this.

Given that we actually have markets where people deceive each other pretty much all of the time and justify the lying as a matter of business principle, perhaps we should study those instead.

Don't get me wrong, these fictional markets are interesting, but a lot of time seems to have been wasted looking at them instead of looking at the actual economy.