Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#31

Post by jimjansen1 » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 8:58 PM UTC

cagenut wrote: post #9

logjammin wrote: post #3

I'm in my thirties. I don't have kids, but want them. I don't want to admit to them that I did nothing about global warming when it counted. The thing is that I don't know what I should do; it seems so big, so intractable. Articles like these stir me to action, but what action? Where's the mass movement on this? Where's the group, the party, the leadership?

First of all, since this is a community in which many fancy themselves engineers, ground yourself in the numbers. The main ones being: - number of gigatons emitted to date - rate of ongoing emissions - change in the rate of ongoing emissions - what total emissions numbers correspond to what PPM in the atmosphere - what ppm in the atmosphere correspond to what degrees of C warming (in various timeframes) here is a nic…

But there is a rump dumbass part of the population that doesn't believe in it and they consistently elect leaders that don't believe either. What exactly do you think people can do when their neighbors and elected officials won't do anything because they refuse to acknowledge the problem? I don't think you are actually recommending mass scale ecoterrorism.

To actually make a difference we would need a worldwide project on the scale of multiple Manhattan Projects or Moon Landings and I think there is exactly 0% chance of that happening until it's impossible to ignore but unfortunately too late to stop.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#32

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 8:59 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #6

logjammin wrote: post #3

I'm in my thirties. I don't have kids, but want them. I don't want to admit to them that I did nothing about global warming when it counted. The thing is that I don't know what I should do; it seems so big, so intractable. Articles like these stir me to action, but what action? Where's the mass movement on this? Where's the group, the party, the leadership?

Since you mention it, the best thing you can do for future generations is not have kids. The evidence is crystal clear in that regard.

[deleted]

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#33

Post by skosch » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:02 PM UTC

vladimirralev wrote: post #13

I invite everybody to watch this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaiZ5BHaUMY A calm, collected, scientific representation of both sides.

Please abstain from propagating the "both sides" nonsense.

One can admit to degrees of model uncertainty without insinuating that climate change is a matter of opinion.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#34

Post by rapjr9 » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:02 PM UTC

Some constructive criticism: I think this document is written backwards and does not contain what CEO's are interested in. The disastrous effects should come first and preceding that should be forecasts of the effect on the bottom line (profits). The business implications of climate change are what might capture their attention. Market disruptions for example, trends in adoption of EV cars, growth in solar and wind, tech industry use of alternative energy, costs for pollution being added to government and other plans, current problems with changes in forests and their effects on industry, plans to deal with coastal changes. Changes in behavior from industry and government are more likely to sway them. They attempt to control those, but a list of existing trends that are outside their control could be persuasive. They have hired scientists to confuse the issue, so they are not going to be swayed by a scientific argument. Leave that as an appendix for their subordinates to read. It's unfortunate, but I think you have to speak their language.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#35

Post by Comevius » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:03 PM UTC

vladimirralev wrote: post #13

I invite everybody to watch this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaiZ5BHaUMY A calm, collected, scientific representation of both sides.

There are literally no 2 sides. There is a ~97% scientific consensus, then there are these people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_who_disagre....

John Christy (the other side in your video) represents the ~3%. His research was shown to be wrong over and over again. Most recently in 2017: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0121.... https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97...

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#36

Post by jimjansen1 » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:03 PM UTC

vladimirralev wrote: post #13

I invite everybody to watch this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaiZ5BHaUMY A calm, collected, scientific representation of both sides.

Do you also listen to debates on both sides of the Flat Earth Debate? Or the Moon Landing Debate?

The scientific consensus is overwhelming and spending even a second debating or listening to climate change deniers is a dangerous waste of time.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#37

Post by itry2develop » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:03 PM UTC

The "storm" has supposedly been gathering since 1990 and all of the predictions have proven false. It's the only failed theory we are not supposed to question... just pay your carbon tax and shut up!

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#38

Post by yongjik » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:06 PM UTC

ArchTypical wrote: post #25

strict9 wrote: post #2

Skimmed through this, but I can't make it all the way. It's so jarring and too depressing. I lump climate change deniers into the same category as flat-earthers. Although I have more respect for the latter, as at least they aren't blindly swallowing self-serving nonsense spewed by ignorant politicians and certain news outlets.

> I lump climate change deniers into the same category as flat-earthers > there are no inconsistencies in my testimonies against the government, against the fossil fuel industry I lump climate change blamers into the same category. The moment you start talking about individual country (or any specific body) per capita and cumulative, you're making a political statements that someone is responsible and needs to be acc…

> "so it's up to you to try to fix it but we're not gonna even suggest how ..."

More like "So you deserve a larger responsibility for fixing this and we're suggesting, maybe start with stop mining coal and not electing a president who calls climate change a Chinese hoax?" but sure, same thing.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#39

Post by doctorpangloss » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:07 PM UTC

logjammin wrote: post #3

I'm in my thirties. I don't have kids, but want them. I don't want to admit to them that I did nothing about global warming when it counted. The thing is that I don't know what I should do; it seems so big, so intractable. Articles like these stir me to action, but what action? Where's the mass movement on this? Where's the group, the party, the leadership?

Buy emissions credits today, while they're cheap, and simply don't use them.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#40

Post by ilove_banh_mi » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:10 PM UTC

cagenut wrote: post #9

logjammin wrote: post #3

I'm in my thirties. I don't have kids, but want them. I don't want to admit to them that I did nothing about global warming when it counted. The thing is that I don't know what I should do; it seems so big, so intractable. Articles like these stir me to action, but what action? Where's the mass movement on this? Where's the group, the party, the leadership?

First of all, since this is a community in which many fancy themselves engineers, ground yourself in the numbers. The main ones being: - number of gigatons emitted to date - rate of ongoing emissions - change in the rate of ongoing emissions - what total emissions numbers correspond to what PPM in the atmosphere - what ppm in the atmosphere correspond to what degrees of C warming (in various timeframes) here is a nic…

Two thoughts related to your "what to do" paragraph:

- I vaguely recall a Fredric Brown (?) story where people turn to (conceptually, self-defense) violence against cars because they've reached the insight that the fumes are literally killing them, like cigarette smoke.

- Some people (hmmm, "some people I know") have chosen direct action and planned+participated in sabotage of pipelines and railroads (used for coal and oil transport). Several were arrested in multiple states, but the overall outcome was symbolic with limited media coverage; not really what I imagined as effective, direct action. Now, some have spent time in jail, and some are scared because they feel responsible to their young children, and what happens to the kids if their parents spend a long time in jail?