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Wired Interviews Bill Gates (1996) [video]

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Re: Wired Interviews Bill Gates (1996) [video]

#31
post #14
post #11

My main takeaway here was that Gates thought that the cost of distribution on the internet would be so low that there would be no large business that could form. However one of the interviewers pushes back by saying that because the cost of distribution would be so low, aggregators would naturally form a monopoly on this business. Incredibly prescient point in a world of Facebooks and Googles. Anyone know who she is,…

Neither FB nor GOOG have become such monopolies in that type of business they were talking about. What Gates said hold true today. Think for example about a one person business like daringfireball.net, that was the type of business Gates was envisioning. Or Drudge report.

This ISPs have, or will become the true monopolies that will be the gatekeepers of all access to the internet.

They are entrenched and are not expanding their services, instead, they are digging in and keeping their foothold within their regions, limiting/eliminating competition, both from a rules/laws (like preventing municipal ISPs from forming) and limiting their service footprint to maximize their "profits" within their regions. Next expanding, but always increasing the amount they charge to poor service and access to the "internet."

If anything, it appears that ISP behavior is similar to the original Ma-Bell (USA) telephone Corp. It looks like somebody needs to break them up. But that's wishful thinking this day & age, just like having a nation wide (USA) fiber deploy to all states, cities and towns. Imagine, a Renaissance would develop.

Peace

Re: Wired Interviews Bill Gates (1996) [video]

#32
post #16
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither FB nor GOOG have become such monopolies in that type of business they were talking about. What Gates said hold true today. Think for example about a one person business like daringfireball.net, that was the type of business Gates was envisioning. Or Drudge report.

> Neither FB nor GOOG have become such monopolies in that type of business they were talking about. What Gates said hold true today. They're very close to that. And the same is true to other content, e.g. Spotify, Amazon Kiddle, Netflix for films, YouTube for video, etc. People still go to other sources, but increasingly less so, and those sources all increasingly fringe (Daring Fireball? Compared to Facebook and the…

> Gates (as quoted below): "There will be no content club in my life time with $4 billion revenue...you are on drugs if you think that".

> Meanwhile there are like 5 "content clubs" with much higher revenue...

Good CEOs and Chairpersons don't blather about things that can adversely affect their company. Do you recall what happened after Musk tweeted that funding was secured?

Re: Wired Interviews Bill Gates (1996) [video]

#34
post #31
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither FB nor GOOG have become such monopolies in that type of business they were talking about. What Gates said hold true today. Think for example about a one person business like daringfireball.net, that was the type of business Gates was envisioning. Or Drudge report.

This ISPs have, or will become the true monopolies that will be the gatekeepers of all access to the internet. They are entrenched and are not expanding their services, instead, they are digging in and keeping their foothold within their regions, limiting/eliminating competition, both from a rules/laws (like preventing municipal ISPs from forming) and limiting their service footprint to maximize their "profits" withi…

> Next expanding, but always increasing the amount they charge to poor service and access to the "internet."

I think your comment is only valid for a particular place in the world. In other countries you have wild competition between land providers and also mobile internet providers that keep offers priced low and more and more competitive as they go. If you want to benefit from competition, you need to ensure the regulators fight against local monopolies, or force them to license their lines.

Re: Wired Interviews Bill Gates (1996) [video]

#35
post #16
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither FB nor GOOG have become such monopolies in that type of business they were talking about. What Gates said hold true today. Think for example about a one person business like daringfireball.net, that was the type of business Gates was envisioning. Or Drudge report.

> Neither FB nor GOOG have become such monopolies in that type of business they were talking about. What Gates said hold true today. They're very close to that. And the same is true to other content, e.g. Spotify, Amazon Kiddle, Netflix for films, YouTube for video, etc. People still go to other sources, but increasingly less so, and those sources all increasingly fringe (Daring Fireball? Compared to Facebook and the…

> People still go to other sources, but increasingly less so,

No, case in point, DDG is generating more traffic than ever. You can also see Facebook losing ground with teenagers and young adults.

There's assault on all sides to decentralize the web as well. And Facebook is not the only social network, you can use Reddit to interact with your communities of interest and live completely off Facebook so your point does not really stand.

Kindle is not a monopoly either. You have Kobo and several other e-readers with attached stores available on the market, and you can buy e-pubs on numerous sites that are not Amazon.

Netflix also has to compete with Amazon Video and Apple services, they don't operate in a vacuum. And nothing prevents you from renting/buying physical media as well, even though it's not fashionable anymore.

Youtube is the closest thing that looks like a monopoly for video sharing- granted. There are alternatives but they tend to be weak in comparison (at least at this stage).

Re: Wired Interviews Bill Gates (1996) [video]

#36
post #31
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither FB nor GOOG have become such monopolies in that type of business they were talking about. What Gates said hold true today. Think for example about a one person business like daringfireball.net, that was the type of business Gates was envisioning. Or Drudge report.

This ISPs have, or will become the true monopolies that will be the gatekeepers of all access to the internet. They are entrenched and are not expanding their services, instead, they are digging in and keeping their foothold within their regions, limiting/eliminating competition, both from a rules/laws (like preventing municipal ISPs from forming) and limiting their service footprint to maximize their "profits" withi…

The internet in the middle of Monteverde rain forest in Costa Rica was faster than the internet at your average coffeeshop in L.A.

That shocked me.

Re: Wired Interviews Bill Gates (1996) [video]

#37
I always find it fascinating to compare just how large the tech industry has become since this era, when Microsoft was already regarded as something close to a giant in the industry.

Microsoft sales 1995: $6.1 billion ($10b today)

Google is about 12x larger. AWS by itself is about 3x larger. Facebook is 5x larger. Salesforce is similar in size. Oracle is 4x larger. SAP is 2x larger. VMWare is closing in on 1x that size, as is Adobe. And Microsoft today is 12x larger.

If people back then understood how large technology companies would become today, I wonder what would be different (if anything).

Re: Wired Interviews Bill Gates (1996) [video]

#39
post #33

He looks sort of overweight and unhealthy. That surprised me.

He was 41 years old in 1996. Here's the magazine cover: https://media.wired.com/photos/5bbbd018b1d78f2d74578369/mast...

Certainly not any sort of athlete, but doesn't look unusually overweight or unhealthy.

Re: Wired Interviews Bill Gates (1996) [video]

#40
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This ISPs have, or will become the true monopolies that will be the gatekeepers of all access to the internet. They are entrenched and are not expanding their services, instead, they are digging in and keeping their foothold within their regions, limiting/eliminating competition, both from a rules/laws (like preventing municipal ISPs from forming) and limiting their service footprint to maximize their "profits" withi…

The internet in the middle of Monteverde rain forest in Costa Rica was faster than the internet at your average coffeeshop in L.A. That shocked me.

The US ranks in the top 10 to 15 globally on average consumer Internet speed.

Costa Rica is below #100. About 1/5 to 1/6 the average speeds in the US, with US speeds increasing faster year-over-year despite the difference. Costa Rica is comparable to what you see in Iran or Nigeria, around four to five mbps.

Your premise comes across as dramatically overstated (even if you did encounter a coffee shop in LA with poor Internet).

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