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Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

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Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#31
post #30

> In effect, every Lyft vehicle in operation today, with a smartphone on the dashboard, could be commandeered to become a “camera” watching, surveying and mapping the roads that those cars drive on, and how humans behave on them, using that to help Lyft’s autonomous vehicle (AV) platform learn more about driving overall. Another instance of the "more data is better" fallacy. Humans can drive cars safely after only fi…

Yes

Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#32
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber definitely has the levers to become profitable anytime they want since they are entrenched in hundreds of major cities in the world. At the end of the day they control the supply and demand of their own platform and most Uber users will pay whatever the price is since they have been a necessity in many of their user's lives.

>most Uber users will pay whatever the price So Uber is charging their current rates as a way of giving back to the community or whatever? If Uber (or even Uber and Lyft) were to double their prices tomorrow there would most certainly be a drop in volume. Just a couple of days ago I took a Lyft from the airport for no other reason than that a cab would cost about 2x. Yes, there are also circumstances and places in wh…

They don't have to raise prices. Just cut superfluous headcount by 70%. Instant profitability.

Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#33
post #8

Bear with me here, trying to come at this from the other end. Why do Uber and Lyft have to develop their own self driving tech? If what they sell is their routing algorithm for drivers, they can simply lease self driving cars from the companies directly and run them on their network. The car companies would be happy to get a cut of the profits. What advantage would they get by developing their own tech? They have to…

I doubt Lyft wants to sit around and let Uber develop self-driving tech, since I doubt Uber would lease that tech to Lyft on very favorable terms.

I doubt Uber wants to sit around and let Lyft develop self-driving tech, since I doubt Lyft would lease that tech to Uber on very favorable terms.

Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#34
post #30

> In effect, every Lyft vehicle in operation today, with a smartphone on the dashboard, could be commandeered to become a “camera” watching, surveying and mapping the roads that those cars drive on, and how humans behave on them, using that to help Lyft’s autonomous vehicle (AV) platform learn more about driving overall. Another instance of the "more data is better" fallacy. Humans can drive cars safely after only fi…

How is having recorded video of actual roads not valuable data? You're assuming the only option is training self driving cars on it. They might be training something totally separate to recognize signs, or see damaged roads, how quickly pedestrians react at different times of day, etc.

Very narrow view point for you to take.

Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#35
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What advantage would they get by developing their own tech? Same with every company in the current climate. Develop every damn thing yourself for fear of anyone having financial power over you. It really is tiring. Yet, I can't blame them too much. This is where I wish the government would step it. What do I care which company has the best self driving AI? Ffs, define best? It's likely the safest. So we're literall…

The government currently lets anyone drive until proven unsafe . Self-driving initiatives are really only adding a few "drivers" to the road. Uber acted like a drunk teenager and they are off the road now. This system works, but with occasionally horrific humane toll. It's called capitalism

> The government currently lets anyone drive until proven unsafe

I mean, sort of - you can't drive unless you pass a test of safety. I'm not sure exactly how that fits your model of "until proven unsafe".

Driving without a drivers safety course having passed, ie a drivers license is a serious offense.

Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#37
post #27
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didnt know this. I see plenty of teslas on uber.

Only for the hypothetical self driving mode.

And yet again head over heels. Most Teslas made today won't even be around to drive when SDC becomes a reality.

Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#38
post #8

Bear with me here, trying to come at this from the other end. Why do Uber and Lyft have to develop their own self driving tech? If what they sell is their routing algorithm for drivers, they can simply lease self driving cars from the companies directly and run them on their network. The car companies would be happy to get a cut of the profits. What advantage would they get by developing their own tech? They have to…

Uber and Lyft have very little moat to protect them if someone else develops self-driving cars first. They haven't succeeded in their initial goal of exterminating the existing cab companies, and that leaves them in a situation where developing self-driving technology could be a matter of life and death for them. The incumbent cab companies are much better positioned to profit from self-driving cars. They've already…

This seems mostly right.

That said, worth noting that the fleet management/maintenance expertise will be of unknown/unproven value for managing self-driving cars. No domain experience; just spitballing...

- Unmanned SDC might have significantly different refuel/recharge/cleaning/roadside assistance/accident-response needs. - Unmanned SDC availability/hours/mileage patterns are likely to differ significantly over time when they aren't tethered to bodily functions. - The size and location of fixed fleet-management infrastructure may be suboptimal for different patterns; they might start off as an advantage but become a drag as players with less inertia optimize. - SDC sensor maintenance is going to be a big unknown to these companies. - Their liquidity and vehicle retirement/acquisition processes may not be compatible with rapid fleet replacement without outside help. - Even if they do manage a rapid replacement cycle, the throughput of their fleet management processes may be closely tied to their normal acquisition cycles. - Unless they're going to choose that moment to transition to an app-only-ride-request model, they may have to overcome significant design/software/hardware dev challenges of their own to handle non-app customers (i.e., being hailed on the street, taking verbal directions from people who may be drunk or not know where they're going, stop requests, destination changes...).

Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#39
post #30

> In effect, every Lyft vehicle in operation today, with a smartphone on the dashboard, could be commandeered to become a “camera” watching, surveying and mapping the roads that those cars drive on, and how humans behave on them, using that to help Lyft’s autonomous vehicle (AV) platform learn more about driving overall. Another instance of the "more data is better" fallacy. Humans can drive cars safely after only fi…

> Another instance of the "more data is better" fallacy.

More data is better. The fact that humans have better algorithms that need less data does absolutely nothing to negate this.

Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#40
post #28

> The first car from Lyft’s Level 5 self-driving initiative will be the Ford Fusion Hybrid. Lyft’s use of a Ford Fusion apparently isn’t associated with the partnership the two announced last year. Other AV companies have used the Ford Fusion as a platform for integrating self-driving technologies Why are we still talking about Level 5 autonomous driving when we can't even get Level 4 working properly? I believe this…

"Level 5" is the name they've given that division - as much a goal as anything. I doubt they'll launch at anything near true level 5 capability
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