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How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

howtobrexit.eu

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Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#31

Post by martythemaniak »

Brexit has definitely changed my mind on one thing - majority vote in a referendum is bad. Or rather, the percentage vote required should be proportional to the gravity of the question. Referendums are rare, so most votes should require well over 50%.

I did not used to think this. In 2007 British Columbia had a referendum on switching to proportional representation from FPTP. The result was like 52% in favour, but the government had set a minimum of 55%,so it did not pass. I thought it was a a terrible idea at the time (the people had spoken! Democracy!), but I don't think so anymore. Another example is the 1995 Quebec independence referendum, which "stay" narrowly won, but afterwards the federal government passed an act making it much harder to pass a referendum.

Basically, the bigger the question, the longer and larger implications it has, the more it has to be thought through, the more consensus there should be. The US constitution has features like this when it requires large majorities to pass amendments etc.

As an engineering metaphor, having a fast-response system without any dampening can lead to out of control oscillations, which ultimately destroy your system.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#32

Post by arethuza »

pjc50 wrote: post #20
anne_veling wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good one. Yeah so many more options as I was programming it... Like the EU giving up on their "colony" Northern Ireland. Or France or the NL exiting the EU too...

Northern Ireland is a colony of the UK if it is anything at all.

Are you suggesting independence for NI? That would be interesting...

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#33

Post by Waterluvian »

presscast wrote: post #30
Waterluvian wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's been symbolic for a long time. It would be a constitutional crisis if Her Majesty started getting involved.

I'm surprised you use the term "constitutional crisis" here. Isn't the UK one of those rare countries without a constitution?

Fair. I'm from Canada and am borrowing what I know about our system and what I know about theirs.

We would call it that. Hmm. What do you call it in the UK? A crisis caused by the challenge of technically legal but completely unfounded government/monarchy actions.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#34

Post by Someguywhatever »

clubm8 wrote: post #19
bilbo0s wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only winning move is not to play ... That's a losing move too. The Leave voters would all label you 'undemocratic'. That sentiment imposes a definite cost on you as well. Unfortunately, at this point there really are no " winning " moves. Probably just a few moves that might be less bad than other moves.

>The Leave voters will all call you undemocratic. That sentiment imposes a definite cost on you as well. This is the same country that has the queen give "consent" for all legislation, correct? What exactly is the point of the monarchy if they won't step in during this serious issue to act as the "adult in the room"?

Why is the democratic decision to leave not an "adult" decision?

To conduct the referendum and then not abide by the result would absolutely be undemocratic. The UK is already dragging it's heels on taking action WRT Brexit IMO. I think that they will drag it out so long that they say the mandate of the referendum has expired, and then re-rerun the referendum. They will rinse and repeat until they get the result they want.

As an example Ireland voted not to join the EU the first time they did a referendum, they simply had more referendums until they got a yes.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/dec/13/eu-ire...

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#35

Post by Kalium »

martythemaniak wrote: post #31

Brexit has definitely changed my mind on one thing - majority vote in a referendum is bad. Or rather, the percentage vote required should be proportional to the gravity of the question. Referendums are rare, so most votes should require well over 50%. I did not used to think this. In 2007 British Columbia had a referendum on switching to proportional representation from FPTP. The result was like 52% in favour, but th…

California is a good example of what happens when pretty much any policy can be set by simple majority vote. The result is, to be kind about it, a lot of room for improvement.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#36

Post by 7000skeletons »

pjc50 wrote: post #23
seren wrote: post #4

There should be more options, like Republic of Ireland joining the United Kingdom. Or Scotland making a bid to join the EU.

> Republic of Ireland joining the United Kingdom Sure, but this is somewhere in probability behind "UK destroyed by asteroid impact". > Scotland making a bid to join the EU There are persistent rumours that people on the UK side are trying to avoid having any kind of double-no-border situation that would work for NI be also applicable for Scotland. Because during the referendum all sorts of claims about the need for…

The SNP aren't going to be willing to make such an overt bid to join the EU as an independent state any time soon, even if they manage to achieve the latter, given that a sizeable minority of their supporters actually supported Brexit.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#37

Post by Y_Y »

conanite wrote: post #25

Scotland and NI quit UK to form their own republic and rejoin EU together. Everyone happy. Maybe even republic of Scotland-Ireland.

The Gaelic/Celtic Union is an idea that has been batted around for a while now. It might be political fantasy, but the populaces seem to be general amenable (not including, ironically, the various "unionists").

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#38

Post by presscast »

Waterluvian wrote: post #33
presscast wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm surprised you use the term "constitutional crisis" here. Isn't the UK one of those rare countries without a constitution?

Fair. I'm from Canada and am borrowing what I know about our system and what I know about theirs. We would call it that. Hmm. What do you call it in the UK? A crisis caused by the challenge of technically legal but completely unfounded government/monarchy actions.

Right, this doesn't detract from your original point at all. I was just wondering if there was some technicality I was missing.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#40

Post by barrkel »

bcoates wrote: post #22

This idea of "alignment" is absurd, countries have non-transitive border arrangements all the time. It might bring the always-questionable idea that the EU ever had a "single market" under scrutiny, but that's weird ideological posturing not a serious obstruction to Irish access to the UK market and vice versa.

Alignment is a mechanism to prevent beggar-thy-neighbour policies that lead to a race to the bottom, with everybody worse off. If you have a porous border without alignment, you get smuggling.

The EU single market is a definitional concept, it exists by definition. Not all goods and services are in the single market, but the scope gradually increases over time. Necessarily, as the scope increases, the need for harmonization increases, and that's what often leads to accusations of loss of sovereignty.

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