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Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

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Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#31

Post by CM30 »

eksemplar wrote: post #16
finknotal wrote: post #2

"Try reading a book on disc. At best, it's an unpleasant chore: the myopic glow of a clunky computer replaces the friendly pages of a book. And you can't tote that laptop to the beach. Yet Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Intenet. Uh, sure." Beautiful example of article where the author was skeptical based on the wild west of the c…

VR would be my bet. Every time is exit VR I feel like my monitor is limiting. It requires quite a lot of work though, and unlike the web, it probably can’t be done by one person in a basement. Which I think is important to it’s impact, because google probably wouldn’t have existed if it couldn’t have started small and gradually build its way up.

> It requires quite a lot of work though, and unlike the web, it probably can’t be done by one person in a basement. Which I think is important to it’s impact, because google probably wouldn’t have existed if it couldn’t have started small and gradually build its way up.

This may be why VR hasn't taken off yet. If it requires a lot of resources to create an experience using it, then you've limited the number of new ideas that can be built/tested.

Maybe it'll do better when more frameworks and engines for VR applications are a thing, and building one is as easy as making a website or mobile app is today.

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#32

Post by TazeTSchnitzel »

SilasX wrote: post #17
AVTizzle wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Blockchain and cryptocurrency comes to mind - especially given HN’s frequent dismissals and distaste of the two.

I see a lot of people making this exact mistake regarding blockchain: >So how come my local mall does more business in an afternoon than the entire Internet handles in a month? IOW, “It hasn’t displaced some other market already, so it never will.” It’s only a few steps away from “it has the volatility associated with being a small market, so it’s inherently flawed”. With that said, I’m skeptical about whether it wil…

Well, a bigger problem in terms of transaction count is that proof-of-work systems are designed in such a way as to put a hard limit on the number of processable transactions that's nowhere near the world's needs, and moreover, they expend multiple orders of magnitude more energy to do it.

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#33

Post by sien »

zouhair wrote: post #12
scalio wrote: post #6

Fascinating how the analysis gets wrong what becomes possible or doesn't (online shopping,...), but hits the nail on the head concerning the psychological and social aspects. > The Usenet, a worldwide bulletin board, allows anyone to post messages across the nation. Your word gets out, leapfrogging editors and publishers. Every voice can be heard cheaply and instantly. The result? Every voice is heard. The cacophony…

Any predictions that pertains to the technological aspect of our lives is utterly futile. Imagine you are in the mid 90' and you say to someone that in the next decade we will have a camera, a video camera, a radio, a music and video player, a voice recorder and much more in just one pocket. Saying it like this make it look insane. On the other hand psychological and social aspects are linked to our brains that didn'…

There was the Palm Pilot. The Pilot 1000 was released in 1996. Digital Cameras were around at Universities as well. Mp3s were around in 1997. University students had mobile phones by this time. GPS was around. People who were into hiking had Garmins. The first Nokia Communicator was released in 1996 too.

The idea that there would be continuing improvements and decreases in size was taken for granted.

Mind you, the improvements in mobile performance, screen performance and cameras weren't all put together.

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#34

Post by emacsen »

A little context on the author is in order.

His name is Clifford Stoll and he was a physicist and early Internet user. He wrote the book "The Cuckoo's Egg" which should be required reading for all sys-admins.

In the mid-90s, he saw the Internet as something akin to Fahrenheit 451 and began preaching how it would tear us apart as a society. To that end, he wrote Silicon Snake Oil and articles like this one, which combines philosophy and cultural observations (the mob mentality of the crowd) with nonsensical conclusions based on the current technology (ie that online shopping would never be a big thing). I was never sure if he genuinely believed that it wasn't possible, or if he was merely trying to make the web less appealing somehow to prevent it from happening.

Years later he started to sell Klein Bottles on his website. I'm not sure if he still does, but in the year 2000, you could order them from him and he'd take your order over the phone. I ordered a few and it was fun to talk to him.

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#35

Post by exodust »

adoctor wrote: post #15
finknotal wrote: post #2

"Try reading a book on disc. At best, it's an unpleasant chore: the myopic glow of a clunky computer replaces the friendly pages of a book. And you can't tote that laptop to the beach. Yet Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Intenet. Uh, sure." Beautiful example of article where the author was skeptical based on the wild west of the c…

For what it's worth, I still prefer reading on paper. Buying ebooks is cheaper, though (because you need the device you use to read them for other reasons), and the logistics of storing such books are much simpler

Yes but some devices will have screens more like paper. We're slowly seeing small steps towards that. For example Wacom now talks up their tablet screens for feeling more like paper when you draw on them with the pen. The glass has more granular resistance or something. I think iPad Pro also makes these claims.

In terms of reading, I guess in time the very thin screens that can be rolled up will hit the market.

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#36

Post by exodust »

GordonS wrote: post #23
eksemplar wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

VR would be my bet. Every time is exit VR I feel like my monitor is limiting. It requires quite a lot of work though, and unlike the web, it probably can’t be done by one person in a basement. Which I think is important to it’s impact, because google probably wouldn’t have existed if it couldn’t have started small and gradually build its way up.

It feels like decent VR has been 'any time now' away for decades . Is Oculus still the only real attempt at it these days?

Technical progress is slower than the VR hype train. Not only that, but ergonomics was a bigger issue than many predicted.

In the meantime, I don't see any reason why we can't see arcade venues bounce back, with dedicated VR rooms using powerful projections rather than headsets.

I know I'd prefer a room with 360 VR projection done well, moving platform or chair to simulate driving, flying etc, and surround sound with huge cinematic range, than a headset with headphones.

The other issue with headsets is when sharing them, particularly public ones. There's a certain hygiene factor, if you know what I mean!

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#38

Post by wolfgke »

GordonS wrote: post #23
eksemplar wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

VR would be my bet. Every time is exit VR I feel like my monitor is limiting. It requires quite a lot of work though, and unlike the web, it probably can’t be done by one person in a basement. Which I think is important to it’s impact, because google probably wouldn’t have existed if it couldn’t have started small and gradually build its way up.

It feels like decent VR has been 'any time now' away for decades . Is Oculus still the only real attempt at it these days?

> Is Oculus still the only real attempt at it these days?

At least HTC Vive and PlayStation VR (if you are a console player) additionally come to my mind.

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#39

Post by jacquesm »

emacsen wrote: post #34

A little context on the author is in order. His name is Clifford Stoll and he was a physicist and early Internet user. He wrote the book "The Cuckoo's Egg" which should be required reading for all sys-admins. In the mid-90s, he saw the Internet as something akin to Fahrenheit 451 and began preaching how it would tear us apart as a society. To that end, he wrote Silicon Snake Oil and articles like this one, which comb…

> Years later he started to sell Klein Bottles on his website.

From a miniature robotic warehouse under his house, no less:

https://techcrunch.com/2015/06/23/how-clifford-stoll-sells-k...

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#40

Post by mysterydip »

scalio wrote: post #6

Fascinating how the analysis gets wrong what becomes possible or doesn't (online shopping,...), but hits the nail on the head concerning the psychological and social aspects. > The Usenet, a worldwide bulletin board, allows anyone to post messages across the nation. Your word gets out, leapfrogging editors and publishers. Every voice can be heard cheaply and instantly. The result? Every voice is heard. The cacophony…

> When most everyone shouts, few listen.

I feel this is most evident on Twitter. I see it in the indie gamedev scene: everyone trying to advertise their upcoming game or steam sale, trying to build an audience, but no one listening to anyone else's.

Another aspect being sold (implicitly or explicitly) is the democracy of the platform: anyone (commonfolk) can talk to anyone else (celebrities, CEOs), but the fact it's possible works against itself. There's so many voices no one really gets heard except a handful.

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