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The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

bloomberg.com

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Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#31

Post by brisance »

fullshark wrote: post #9
aresant wrote: post #3

The Tesla story has effectively become a manufacturing story. Can they meet production targets? Can they maintain product quality while they scale? Will they run out of money before they solve the CapEx intensive, low margin problem of automobile manufacturing!!!? Despite the scrapiness of the "build a gigantic tent" story it's a bizarre risk. Musk's desire for full vertical integration obviously mirror's that of Ste…

Apple acquiring Tesla after they go bankrupt is the logical endgame here.

Acquiring a company means assuming its debt obligations as well. Apple is too well-managed to do something so stupid.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#32

Post by grizzles »

I used to work for Chrysler & Mercedes. Imo, the tent is a really smart way to increase production throughput. Here's why I think so:

My guess is that Tesla is pushing the cars through the body shop, paint shop and then partially pushing them through whatever their analog would be to the chassis line in a standard factory. That line would be far simpler in an EV. Together those comprise three fifths of the assembly line, with only Trim + Final car left, which are the two fifths of the assembly line that would be easy to relocate to the tent, since most of the stations are human operators using hand tools. That's where most of the material and parts handling is and sounds like where their conveyor belt problems were.

The first two lines are totally automated and have been in all factories for 20+ years. As far as I'm concerned if they can run the first three fifths of the line at 5000/week then they will have made it.

Elon is a hell of a leader. If I was a short, I'd have covered weeks ago.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#33

Post by jcims »

sulam wrote: post #27

On the list of "most ambitious humans", Elon Musk is probably near the top of the list. (Of course it would have to be some kind of blend of ambition and accomplishment, the most ambitious person on the planet could well be living in his mom's basement eating pizza right now). I wouldn't want to work for him (I hear he's a nightmare), but he sure makes for a nice counterpoint to the rest of the daily news!

I think I'd like to work for him for a little while. There's something to be said for the camaraderie built in high stress environments, and it would be worth it for the stories.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#34

Post by asfasgasg »

grizzles wrote: post #32

I used to work for Chrysler & Mercedes. Imo, the tent is a really smart way to increase production throughput. Here's why I think so: My guess is that Tesla is pushing the cars through the body shop, paint shop and then partially pushing them through whatever their analog would be to the chassis line in a standard factory. That line would be far simpler in an EV. Together those comprise three fifths of the assembly l…

Oh weird. My guess is they miss their estimates again. They have been missing for months running, so it seems most likely that they will miss again. Doesn't mean they won't catch their aspirations eventually, just it doesn't seem likely that today will be the day.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#35

Post by manicdee »

ux-app wrote: post #6

> "I don’t think anyone’s seen anything like this outside of the military trying to service vehicles in a war zone. I pity any customer taking delivery of one of these cars. The quality will be shocking" Ouch, that is scathing, proof will be in the pudding though. If there are a lot of QA issues (which it seems reasonable to assume) then the recall rate + bad press might sink them. It's a scrappy (maybe desperate?) m…

That quote is entirely based on mischaracterisation of the new building as a tent, open to the elements. It’s a hangar with a synthetic cloth skin instead of metal or wood cladding.

Nothing in this Bloomberg article reflects reality.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#36

Post by martimarkov »

Here is better article that actually goes into explaining that it’s just part of the assembly line in order to fix a bottleneck (as in `in addition to`). https://electrek.co/2018/06/25/tesla-model-3-battery-product...

Seriously this Bloomberg article seems just as a scare write up to drop the share prices...

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#37

Post by brisance »

djrogers wrote: post #8
aslkdjaslkdj1 wrote: post #2

“The existing line isn’t functional, it can’t build cars as planned and there isn’t room to get people into work stations to replace the non-functioning robots,” Warburton said in an email. “So here we have it—build cars manually in the parking lot.” This theory makes sense to me. Changing a over-automated line to one that is safe to use by humans must be way more expensive and time consuming then just rebuilding the…

Why would a car built in a 40+ year old factory have lower defect rates than one built in a tent? Honest question here...

Sure they're not putting together internal combustion engines but still, tolerances are important and can vary quite a bit without temperature control.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#38

Post by manicdee »

> What gives manufacturing experts pause about Tesla’s tent is that it was pitched to shelter an assembly line cobbled together with scraps lying around the brick-and-mortar plant. It smacks of a Hail Mary move after months of stopping and starting production to make on-the-fly fixes to automated equipment, which Musk himself has said was a mistake.

> “The existing line isn’t functional, it can’t build cars as planned and there isn’t room to get people into work stations to replace the non-functioning robots,” Warburton said in an email. “So here we have it—build cars manually in the parking lot.”

When the journalist abandons fact checking and simply goes with publishing this kind of tripe, the reader has no other option but to disregard everything the journalist, their editor or the publication touches.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#39

Post by jcims »

csours wrote: post #22
dingo_bat wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the factory is 40 years old. They built it in the last 5 years.

The structure is basically the same one GM completed in 1962 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fremont_Assembly The insides are all new (and now some of the outsides, too!)

I'm no pro but I've worked in a few auto assembly lines. They are constantly reworked and the only real support they get from above is lighting and HVAC. Stamping isn't going to get moved very easily, but most other processes are pretty much bolted to the floor. As long as you have power and reasonable environmental control I don't see why it wouldn't work. It's ghetto but whatever.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#40

Post by jmvoodoo »

brisance wrote: post #31
fullshark wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple acquiring Tesla after they go bankrupt is the logical endgame here.

Acquiring a company means assuming its debt obligations as well. Apple is too well-managed to do something so stupid.

That's not always the case. It's common to do an asset sale when companies go bankrupt. I know. I've been involved in one such sale (on the buy side).
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