Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#31

Post by elvirs » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:12 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #20

ckastner wrote: post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

Their critics are very loudly proclaiming Tesla is an immense failure, that the Model 3 is a failure, and that they're going bankrupt in a matter of months. The FUD being broadly directed at Tesla is astounding and reeks of bias of one sort or another. The other major automakers are running years behind where Tesla is at today. That's where the embarrassment should be today: those automakers are still gleefully selli…

they are given a ton of credit. their stock value was a good proof of how much credit they were given but you can't keep being late and not delivering on promises to hundreds of thousands of customers who made deposits while the CEO is busy building flamethrowers amd hats to sell them on twitter

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#32

Post by frgtpsswrdlame » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:12 PM UTC

gwbas1c wrote: post #24

ckastner wrote: post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

I never expected Tesla to deliver the Model 3 on time. I just "delayed" my order to AWD because my Leaf lease is up before I'll get the 2WD Tesla. (Also, because my wife wants a minivan and Chrysler now offers a plugin minivan.) Remember, no car in history ever had 500,000 pre-orders. No car even came close. If anyone expected Tesla to ramp up to that kind of production overnight, they are delusional. Besides, when I…

>Remember, no car in history ever had 500,000 pre-orders. No car even came close. If anyone expected Tesla to ramp up to that kind of production overnight, they are delusional.

At the same time this is an admission that Musk is/was selling a delusion to people when Tesla set it's production goals.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#33

Post by icegreentea2 » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:13 PM UTC

They built 9766 Model 3 in Q1 and were able to surge out 2000 in the last 7 days, and claim a doubling in their Model 3 production rate over Q1.

Something doesn't really add up there. Regardless of their spin their Q1 must have been hellish on the guys and gals on the floor and in production support.

I hope they can do a sustainable ramp soon so my friends can get their Model 3s.

I would REALLY love to see what their internal messaging on this is.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#34

Post by 52-6F-62 » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:14 PM UTC

cdibona wrote: post #16

GM/Toyota/NUUMI would produce four times vehicles in the same amount of time in that plant. (about 120 to 130k/quarter, depending on the nuumi production numbers you believe)

Maybe. Some of the production process is brilliant. At the same time, some of it is far less sophisticated than you might imagine from much publicized reports. And they have skeletons, alright.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#35

Post by danso » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:15 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #20

ckastner wrote: post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

Their critics are very loudly proclaiming Tesla is an immense failure, that the Model 3 is a failure, and that they're going bankrupt in a matter of months. The FUD being broadly directed at Tesla is astounding and reeks of bias of one sort or another. The other major automakers are running years behind where Tesla is at today. That's where the embarrassment should be today: those automakers are still gleefully selli…

How are the other makers "years behind" Tesla? The Model S is the best-selling EV but not by an order of magnitude. GM was pretty close last year in sales and I don't think it's a bad bet to bet that GM will beat Tesla in getting self-driving tech (GM Cruise is only second to Waymo in testing self-driving, at least in California).

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/30/the-5-best-selling...

https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/31/16956902/california-dmv-s...

Tesla deserves credit for getting other automakers to take the EV market seriously, but they are by no means years behind Tesla in terms of production and sales.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#36

Post by Someone1234 » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:16 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #20

ckastner wrote: post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

Their critics are very loudly proclaiming Tesla is an immense failure, that the Model 3 is a failure, and that they're going bankrupt in a matter of months. The FUD being broadly directed at Tesla is astounding and reeks of bias of one sort or another. The other major automakers are running years behind where Tesla is at today. That's where the embarrassment should be today: those automakers are still gleefully selli…

> Their critics are very loudly proclaiming Tesla is an immense failure, that the Model 3 is a failure, and that they're going bankrupt in a matter of months.

This is a classic straw man. You've created a fictional persona which you then describe as:

> The FUD being broadly directed at Tesla is astounding and reeks of bias of one sort or another.

How about we stick to what other posters you're replying to are actually saying rather than creating fictional personas in order to then attack them.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#37

Post by twtw » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:16 PM UTC

mgiannopoulos wrote: post #22

ckastner wrote: post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

Why shouldn’t they be judged according to the performance of their competitors? If you aim high but your “failure” is better than the rest, it’s still something positive.

The Model T is not a competitor.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#38

Post by danso » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:16 PM UTC

buvanshak wrote: post #30

Why is this posted on HN? I know there are a lot of people here who are so into Tesla. But this does not fit the HN content guidelines in anyway...

Which content guidelines are you talking about?

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

> On-Topic: Anything that good hackers would find interesting. That includes more than hacking and startups. If you had to reduce it to a sentence, the answer might be: anything that gratifies one's intellectual curiosity.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#39

Post by pavs » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:16 PM UTC

elvirs wrote: post #31

adventured wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their critics are very loudly proclaiming Tesla is an immense failure, that the Model 3 is a failure, and that they're going bankrupt in a matter of months. The FUD being broadly directed at Tesla is astounding and reeks of bias of one sort or another. The other major automakers are running years behind where Tesla is at today. That's where the embarrassment should be today: those automakers are still gleefully selli…

they are given a ton of credit. their stock value was a good proof of how much credit they were given but you can't keep being late and not delivering on promises to hundreds of thousands of customers who made deposits while the CEO is busy building flamethrowers amd hats to sell them on twitter

In case there is any confusion, Musk is not actually building flamethrowers and hats in person. His time is as wasted as saying "yes" to this ideas. Which is to say that not much at all.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#40

Post by toomuchtodo » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 2:18 PM UTC

frgtpsswrdlame wrote: post #32

gwbas1c wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never expected Tesla to deliver the Model 3 on time. I just "delayed" my order to AWD because my Leaf lease is up before I'll get the 2WD Tesla. (Also, because my wife wants a minivan and Chrysler now offers a plugin minivan.) Remember, no car in history ever had 500,000 pre-orders. No car even came close. If anyone expected Tesla to ramp up to that kind of production overnight, they are delusional. Besides, when I…

>Remember, no car in history ever had 500,000 pre-orders. No car even came close. If anyone expected Tesla to ramp up to that kind of production overnight, they are delusional. At the same time this is an admission that Musk is/was selling a delusion to people when Tesla set it's production goals.

Optimism isn’t delusional. They’re already making ~192k vehicles a year at their current 3/S/X production rate (which will only increase).

You would have to be malicious or ignorant to think that can’t be scaled up to NUMMIs previous 350k/year run rate in the next 3-12 months.

Disclosure: TSLA shareholder