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The Illusion of a Profitable Amazon Prime Now and Prime Fresh

stratelogical.com

31–40 of 85 posts

Re: The Illusion of a Profitable Amazon Prime Now and Prime Fresh

#31
post #6

I tell you, this service has been a godsend. Emergency trip to the hospital, no food at home? Prime Now. Living alone sick, no food in the home? Prime Now. Parents feeling poorly and I'm 3 states away? Prime Now.

[edit] Disregard, can't ask an earnest question on HN either.

Living alone and sick, I don't want to cook. I want cereal, orange juice, ice cream, easy to prepare food, etc. These are the sorts of things I don't normally have around.

My emergency supplies have food, but I don't eat the emergency food unless there is an emergency.

Re: The Illusion of a Profitable Amazon Prime Now and Prime Fresh

#33
He did very little analysis on how the actual Prime subscription price contributes to the profitability of Prime Now.

You cannot evaluate Prime related services in isolation because the whole point of Prime is that you get a bundle of services that make your life easier and allow you to get a bunch of things for a flat subscription rate. Some of those services could be forever unprofitable, but if you remove them from the bundle, you could be destroying more value and making the whole program unprofitable.

The author fails to evaluate at least two key points:

1) Prime is still in its infancy. It's clear that Amazon's goal is to reach a total share of the market that can only be compared to paying for your phone bill, except in this case the phone bill is Prime, and Amazon is the only provider. That changes the whole picture regarding economies of scale and flywheel effects.

2) The author did his pseudo-experiments (asking Prime Now drivers how many deliveries they did last hour ) in Seattle (I presume since he mentions he is a PM at Amazon).

Of course Prime Now it's not going to be profitable in all markets but it's also not that far from breaking even. The real profitability will come from highly concentrated markets like NYC and Singapore.

Re: The Illusion of a Profitable Amazon Prime Now and Prime Fresh

#34
post #6

I tell you, this service has been a godsend. Emergency trip to the hospital, no food at home? Prime Now. Living alone sick, no food in the home? Prime Now. Parents feeling poorly and I'm 3 states away? Prime Now.

[edit] Disregard, can't ask an earnest question on HN either.

I like how you're getting completely opposite answers about what kinds of food different people have available, but you're getting downvoted anyway.

Re: The Illusion of a Profitable Amazon Prime Now and Prime Fresh

#35
Amazon Flex will eventually encompass more than just delivering goods. Delivering people (uber/lyft). Retrieving packages from households and shipping them, maybe even last mile delivery?

I feel like this article completely misses the point about the Amazon philosophy. It doesn't matter if Prime Now / Amazon Fresh are profitable. They aren't supposed to be profitable. They are building out the infrastructure of Amazon Flex for themselves AT COST and then they will open it up to other services and uses that will undercut any competitors (rideshare is the first one that comes to mind)

The focus here should be on Amazon Flex and how/where it is going, because that service will be the one that turns the actual profit. Just like AWS.

Re: The Illusion of a Profitable Amazon Prime Now and Prime Fresh

#36
post #16

The author dramatically underestimates the opportunities of scale and future tech in her model. Amazon is already: - Installing lockers into apartment communities https://www.amazon.com/b?ie=UTF8&node=6442600011 that make deliveries dramatically more efficient. - Predictive logistics & ordering patterns are a core Amazon discipline and they are world class at it. - Droning looks like a gimmick today, but why should i…

>Droning looks like a gimmick today, but why should it be in the future?

It's loud. And dangerous.

Re: The Illusion of a Profitable Amazon Prime Now and Prime Fresh

#37
post #16

The author dramatically underestimates the opportunities of scale and future tech in her model. Amazon is already: - Installing lockers into apartment communities https://www.amazon.com/b?ie=UTF8&node=6442600011 that make deliveries dramatically more efficient. - Predictive logistics & ordering patterns are a core Amazon discipline and they are world class at it. - Droning looks like a gimmick today, but why should i…

The lockers are amazing. If you live in an apartment building, the leasing offices which sign for packages are often only open during business hours. If you live in a house, there's a good chance that someone grabs your package off your porch. So what do you do if you need a strip of LEDs for a project that you're putting together by this weekend and you don't have the right hours open in your schedule? (Or [insert r…

> If you live in an apartment building, the leasing offices which sign for packages

Somewhat OT, but are these common in US (or wherever you are)? If so, out of interest, what other duties to they have?

In Finland, I've never seen such offices even in the larger apartment buildings with hundreds of dwellings.

Parcel lockers (both public and recently in apartment buildings) are a thing here as well, but they are mostly replacing pickup-from-post-office. Home delivery has always been a premium option when ordering online, not the norm. The network here is owned by Posti so any company or individual can send packages to them, or use them to send packages at cheaper rates than going to the post office.

Re: The Illusion of a Profitable Amazon Prime Now and Prime Fresh

#38
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lockers are amazing. If you live in an apartment building, the leasing offices which sign for packages are often only open during business hours. If you live in a house, there's a good chance that someone grabs your package off your porch. So what do you do if you need a strip of LEDs for a project that you're putting together by this weekend and you don't have the right hours open in your schedule? (Or [insert r…

> If you live in an apartment building, the leasing offices which sign for packages Somewhat OT, but are these common in US (or wherever you are)? If so, out of interest, what other duties to they have? In Finland, I've never seen such offices even in the larger apartment buildings with hundreds of dwellings. Parcel lockers (both public and recently in apartment buildings) are a thing here as well, but they are mostl…

Yes it's very common to rent from a company rather than individual landlords. Some of these companies are massive managing hundreds of thousands apartments. Many of the building are specifically built as rentals and all units are for rent hence there is often a leasing office somewhere in the building.

Re: The Illusion of a Profitable Amazon Prime Now and Prime Fresh

#39
post #16

The author dramatically underestimates the opportunities of scale and future tech in her model. Amazon is already: - Installing lockers into apartment communities https://www.amazon.com/b?ie=UTF8&node=6442600011 that make deliveries dramatically more efficient. - Predictive logistics & ordering patterns are a core Amazon discipline and they are world class at it. - Droning looks like a gimmick today, but why should i…

>Droning looks like a gimmick today, but why should it be in the future? It's loud. And dangerous.

I'll be the devil's advocate here: Cars are loud and dangerous - we figured it out as a society.
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