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Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

r6.ca

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Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#31
post #14

Does this mean that the second block from a random point in time is, on average, 20 minutes away? Anyone know what the longest wait time on a block in recent history was? Final question -- do large mining operations network their miners so that they don't overlap their hashes. I'm thinking the overhead in doing that would probably be counter-productive given the massive problem space. But, if they were networked that…

There was a 1.5 hour gap after this block:

https://blockchain.info/block-height/152217

Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#32
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is like a common core math problem. Poorly worded to the point of obscuring any real math talent that could be applied in finding a “correct” result, and instead we get to debate what the question means . A more interesting question, I think, is given a POW algorithm which adjusts difficultly to target a 10 minute block rate, and assuming network hash rate is constant and propagation is instant, what percentage…

Can you explain the multiple meanings you see in the question?

* What is the average time it takes to mine a block?

* If I choose a time uniformly what is the expected time it will take to mine that particular block.

The difference between them being that blocks that take a long time occupy more space on the timeline than shorter blocks and are therefore more likely to be chosen.

Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#33
post #29

TLDR: Since blocks that take a long time to mine fill up more wall-clock time, if you pick an arbitrary instant of wall clock time, you're more likely to be in a "slow" block than a fast block. Specifically, you expect to wait 2x the average.

Thanks. Why can't all math teachers talk like that? I mean... I know you're clever and all, but if you were really clever you'd explain it in a way that's easy to understand.

Still, kudos to the OP. That was a great attempt to be precise.

Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#34
post #29

TLDR: Since blocks that take a long time to mine fill up more wall-clock time, if you pick an arbitrary instant of wall clock time, you're more likely to be in a "slow" block than a fast block. Specifically, you expect to wait 2x the average.

Thanks. Why can't all math teachers talk like that? I mean... I know you're clever and all, but if you were really clever you'd explain it in a way that's easy to understand. Still, kudos to the OP. That was a great attempt to be precise.

Understanding is one thing, explaining in layman or easy to undertand terms is another, and sometimes it takes a lot of effort.

Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#35

This is why I like block times of 2.5 minutes that Litecoin does. Rarely the block takes over 4 minutes. So even if it takes a couple of blocks, it's still within 10 minutes. Even 5 minutes a block would be better than bitcoin's 10. With bitcoin, if you put a reasonable fee, but your transaction doesn't make the next block, it can take more than an hour, which makes impractical certain transaction types like online s…

Most simple criticisms of why Bitcoin does things the way it does and then suggestions for simple ‘improvements’ such as yours (5 minute interval) tend to be naive and wrong. The 10 minute interval for Bitcoin transactions was chosen as the best tradeoff to balance pros and cons for making it shorter or longer.

Stackexchange has a good discussion on the topic:

https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/1863/why-was-the...

Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#37
post #29

TLDR: Since blocks that take a long time to mine fill up more wall-clock time, if you pick an arbitrary instant of wall clock time, you're more likely to be in a "slow" block than a fast block. Specifically, you expect to wait 2x the average.

This is the exact same reason that it always seems like you are in “the slow lane” in congested traffic. You spend considerably more time going slow than going fast, and while your lane is slow you have to watch all the other sporadically fast lanes go by.

Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks. Why can't all math teachers talk like that? I mean... I know you're clever and all, but if you were really clever you'd explain it in a way that's easy to understand. Still, kudos to the OP. That was a great attempt to be precise.

Understanding is one thing, explaining in layman or easy to undertand terms is another, and sometimes it takes a lot of effort.

Explaining is usually more difficult than understanding, as well.

Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#39

The article on the "hitchhiker's paradox" that this links to made this much more clear to me (as well as being shorter): https://the8layers.com/2016/10/30/how-long-will-you-wait-hit...

This reminds me of headwinds in airplanes. You might think that on average, wind cancels out. Sometimes you have a tailwind, sometimes you have a headwind and over time it will all average out. This is not the case. On average, wind reduces your groundspeed. The short of it is you spend more time in a headwind, so you spend more time experiencing the bad than good. There's also the fact that even a direct crosswind s…

Wouldn't cross wind cancel out in average though? (even though head and tail winds don't)

Re: Why Is It Taking 20 Minutes to Mine This Bitcoin Block?

#40

The article on the "hitchhiker's paradox" that this links to made this much more clear to me (as well as being shorter): https://the8layers.com/2016/10/30/how-long-will-you-wait-hit...

This reminds me of headwinds in airplanes. You might think that on average, wind cancels out. Sometimes you have a tailwind, sometimes you have a headwind and over time it will all average out. This is not the case. On average, wind reduces your groundspeed. The short of it is you spend more time in a headwind, so you spend more time experiencing the bad than good. There's also the fact that even a direct crosswind s…

That's really neat, thanks!

An interesting related fact is that with equal distance traveled through headwinds and tailwinds a slower plane will be relatively more affected. From ~12% longer time with a wind speed 1/3rd plane speed down to ~1% with a wind speed 1/10th plane speed.

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